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Last updated on July 16th, 2017 at 09:30 am
Official summer forecast in the UK, earlier this year:
Britain is heading towards another long, hot summer, the Met Office said yesterday.
According to the latest long-range forecast, there is a “high probability” that the British Isles will swelter in higher than average temperatures in June, July and August.
Didn’t turn out that way. Now, here’s the official winter forecast in the US:
The United States will have warmer-than-normal temperatures this winter in most of the country, except for the northern Plains and Northwest states, government weather experts predicted …
“Weather is changeable.”
That’s why it’s not “Global Warming” anymore, but “Climate Change”. If the climate happens to change, (warmer, cooler, wetter, drier, ACA-style meteor-showers) they win.
Posted by spot_the_dog on 2007 10 20 at 09:23 AM • permalink
We had a pretty severe drought here in southern Ohio this summer (still ongoing down south, I understand), so I expect nature to self-correct and come back this winter with tons of snow and ice. Either way, some people will see it as a sign of the End of Civilization If We Don’t Sign Kyoto, thanks to the likes of Al Gaia.
Why are we all bothered about a piddling 0.6C over 100 years. As I have said before, and am going to repeat now:
Ottawa temperatures vary from -30C to +35C every 6 months.
Posted by Wimpy Canadian on 2007 10 20 at 10:07 AM • permalink
If anyone is interested, here’s the original original climate outlook issued by the National Weather Service. It’s written for meteorologists (in their typical <and annoying> all capitals format), so here’s the money quote:
THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER-DECEMBER-JANUARY (NDJ)
2007-2008 REFLECTS THE LA NINA IMPACTS IN COMBINATION WITH RECENT TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY…
PRIMARILY REFLECTING TRENDS… BUT WITH ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE IN MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WHERE LA NINA ALSO FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN THE IMPACT OF RECENT TRENDS TOWARD
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. WHEN THE INFLUENCE OF LA NINA AND
TRENDS ARE TAKEN TOGETHER… ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY
FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES… THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS…
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST… NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN THE AVERAGE OF RECENT
YEARS AND SEASONAL MEANS SHOULD BE MORE IN LINE WITH THOSE EXPECTED IN THE
1971-2000 CLIMATE BASE PERIOD.THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR NDJ 2007-08 FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST… PARTS OF TEXAS… ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INCLUDING FLORIDA.
THESE PRECIPITATION SIGNALS ARE THE EXPECTED RESPONSE TO A MODERATE LA NINA.The NWS is pretty good; I use their products on a regular basis in my job, and I have confidence in their short term forecasts (up to 7 days). Their climate outlooks, however, tend to be no better than flipping a coin. Even the text quoted above supports that; please note the consistent use of the word “favors”, and not . This is in direct contrast to the Reuters article, which tends to be stronger (“will”, “likely”, with an occasional “may”). It’s difficult to express a technical estimate in layman terms, but the original CPC forecast is pretty well written. Frankly, it sounds like someone is over simplifying the outlook.
See, there’s a reason why the NWS calls this an “outlook”: they know that they can’t reliably forecast the weather 90 days out.
But what I find intriguing is the reference to La Nina reducing the impact of “…RECENT TRENDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.”What’s this, now? La Nina might be cooling parts of the United States? Must be all that carbon in the atmosphere.
Seriously, if you read further into the CPC climate outlook, for the “TEMPERATURES” and “PRECIPITATION” discussions, you’ll get a much better description of the trends geographically, and clearly states that only part of the United States will have above normal temperatures. Which aren’t exactly in line with the Reuters article, although I don’t see any deliberate distortions, just journalistic sloppiness.
Posted by The_Real_JeffS on 2007 10 20 at 10:49 AM • permalink
…all driven by oceanic heating. In turn driven by the sun.
Good point, CB. Too bad that the envirotards assume that humongous fusion reactor hanging up there in the sky has nothing to do with the climate.
Posted by The_Real_JeffS on 2007 10 20 at 11:22 AM • permalink
Helpful Hints for Hysterics:
How to Argue for Global WarmingTo keep our consensus intact
Avoid the most obvious fact:
Don’t mention the sun,
That’s rule Number One.
If someone else does, don’t react.And if you react, don’t be drastic.
Use terms that are vague and elastic.
If doubters insist
Their doubts still exist,
Be self-righteous, smug, and sarcastic.
- Don’t mention the sun,
That’s rule Number One. HAH! Great one, lyle, recycled or not.Posted by The_Real_JeffS on 2007 10 20 at 01:32 PM • permalink
Well, even the venerable Farmer’s Almanac perdicts a mild winter for the US, so the “government weather ex-spurts” might actually be right this time. In fact, I’d be surprised if they didn’t rip off The Almanac for their forecast (Though, they would have had to spend at least $4.95 of the taxpayers money for the privelage.)
It’s late October and here in Massachusetts we’ve had several days of mid- to high-70’s (about 21C) weather which will rise to 80F on Monday. This is unusual, therefore it MUST be global warming. However, it did make it a perfect day to pick pumpkins.
Posted by Not My Problem on 2007 10 20 at 02:57 PM • permalink
The United States will have warmer-than-normal temperatures this winter in most of the country, except for the northern Plains and Northwest states, government weather experts predicted …
Good grief – I’d better buy a few extra blankets and some flannel sheets, because this means we’ll be freezing our butts off this winter. Thanks, gubmint.
Speaking of global warming extreme weather climate change, I wonder what happened to all those horribly powerful hurricanes that were supposed to strike us the past couple of years and be the end of civilization as we know it thanks to the Agony of Gaia.
Posted by Blue State Sil on 2007 10 20 at 04:32 PM • permalink
You’ll be pleased to know that statistical analysis of hurricane frequency and severity in the US for the past 150 years shows absolutely no trend change at all. See:
National Hurricane Center
Weather is changeable. Be prepared. Take your brolly and a jumper* cardy, just in case!
*won’t need a jumper, it’s summer after all!
Didn’t I hear recently that La Nina has gone? Australia is going to have dryer weather? Can someone please explain?