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Last updated on March 6th, 2018 at 12:31 am
In a puzzling aside to the UN’s release of its latest climate report, Sydney computer teacher Tim Lambert claimed (in a note to Andrew Bolt) to have read the just-delivered report way back in October:
[You] claim that I’m not up to date on the new IPCC report. Actually I am. I’ve read it and you haven’t. It does not predict sea level rises of 14-43cm. You seem to be relying on an inaccurate story in the Australian. The new IPCC report has similar numbers for sea level rise as the previous one.
No, it doesn’t. As Bolt points out, the report Lambert thinks he read last year differs substantially from the report now available.
UPDATE. Lambert looks for a way out: “I didn’t say the numbers were the same, merely similar.” The numbers in question are … 59 and 88.
UPDATE II. This might explain Lambert’s pre-release access to IPCC material, and his reluctance now to comment on that access. Last May, Lambert mentioned an IPCC “expert reviewer”:
“Expert reviewer for the IPCC” doesn’t mean that they asked him to review material—all it means is that he asked to see the draft report.
Just a guess, but Lambert could’ve made a similar request. If he did, why would he now be disinclined to say so? Well, as Lambert explains:
The only real requirement to be a reviewer is to sign an agreement not to publicly comment on the draft.
- he version Lambert saw did not have the final portion of politics added to the mix, apparently.
Shocked, I say!Posted by Spiny Norman on 2007 02 02 at 01:38 PM • permalink
- A “T”, my kingdom for a “T”.Posted by Spiny Norman on 2007 02 02 at 01:39 PM • permalink
- We are alking abou he la es IPCC clima e repor which im Lamber did no read bu did read back in Oc ober.
his lack of “ “s is unpreceden ed. I blame GlobAl Goreing.Posted by ElectronPower on 2007 02 02 at 01:59 PM • permalink
- Since his is a UN repor, my firs hough is “How many billions are hey gonna demand from us now?”
hey’ve already siezed our “ “s, apparen ly.Posted by Spiny Norman on 2007 02 02 at 02:16 PM • permalink
- I suppose we’ll all have bo subsbibube bhe lebber “b” for bhe lebber “ “ now.Posted by Spiny Norman on 2007 02 02 at 02:20 PM • permalink
- Both numbers have two digits, making them extremely similar.Posted by Hoodlumman on 2007 02 02 at 03:05 PM • permalink
- Hoodlumman beat me to it.Posted by Jim Treacher on 2007 02 02 at 03:20 PM • permalink
- If you are rounding to the nearest hundred, they are identical.Posted by Steve Skubinna on 2007 02 02 at 04:32 PM • permalink
- Great link referred to in Bolt’s blog: http://www.climatescience.org.nz/
“Commonsense about climate change”.
- Expect more of these dodgy justifications from the Doomsdayers. Al Gorefest and his followers, will have found new zeal, because of this UN report. As we know, if the UN said it, then it is true. After all the UN has never been wrong, they have always been bi-patisan, . . . haven’t they? The lefties will be having orgasms of self justification, and some politicians will be feeling really smug with themselves. So, you see, the world will continue to turn and function, and these people will continue to bleed the gulible.
- Aussie colleagueSteve Malloy has a copy of the actual report to be re-written and released in three months. The “report” issued today was a political summary for politicos, by politicos.Posted by Wimpy Canadian on 2007 02 02 at 06:26 PM • permalink
- #22 Wimpy Canadian. Well well, why am I not surprised. A bit of editorial work, cut and paste here and there, and you have the perfect ‘report’. The sad thing is, as mentioned above, endorsed by the UN, promoted by a money hungry ex politician, repeated ad neauseam by the MSM, combined with the collective thinking, of the left, and presto the gulible will swallow it all hook line and sinker.
- My character is based on Tim Lambert. Hi everybody…Posted by curious george on 2007 02 02 at 06:47 PM • permalink
- the czechs subvert the dominant paradigm yet again
Those who believe people caused global warming naïve, says president’s
President Vaclav Klaus’s spokesman Petr Hajek has hit out at an event
on Thursday evening in which lights in several European capitals were
turned out for five minutes as a protest against the wasting of energy
and global warming, the iDnes website reported. Mr Hajek told reporters
the event was ridiculous, saying that people who believed the warnings
of scientists about global warming were naïve. President Klaus has
himself questioned whether human civilisation is responsible for global
- I have a theory that journalists are so innumerate as a group that anything they write about global warming numerics is suspect. For example, in today’s Australian
(Inquirer p19) in a quite good flagship piece on climate change by Matthew Warren, he writes:
“The IPCC also predicted a temperature rise of between 1.1C and 6.4C by 2100, a narrower range than the 1.4C to 5.8C given in 2001.”
Am I going crazy, or is my simple arithmetic flawed?
As another point, you can spot the journos who are or want to be climate hysterics by two little words they use: “up to”.
These journos would report the IPCC as forecasting a temperature rise by 2100 of “up to 6.4C”, to cite the figures above. They have either no idea of what is meant by a forecasting range – if you have to summarise it, use the mid-point for chrissake, or have become habituated to beating-up whatever they have to write by dealing only in the extreme case. In the climate change debate, the “up to” formulation is a sort of climate/maths pornography.
Anyway, on further study, I find that the online Australian has corrected the Matthew Warren clanger thusly:
“The IPCC also predicted a temperature rise of between 1.8C and 4.0C by 2100, a narrower range than the 1.4C to 5.8C given in 2001.”
All the same, surely sub-editors could have done the maths before sending The Australian to the printers. Warren, clearly a sensible guy, may even have got it right originally and the subs screwed it up in ‘copy processing’.
- For a while last night, Sky News (in Australia) broke from their relentless reports about David Hicks to say that the oceans will rise 88cm instead of the 59cm predicted in 2001. Later they dropped mentioning figures at all. Someone must have told they had the page upside down.
If you think the ABC has an agenda driven news service, then check out Sky News. It’s appalling.
- #30: For a while last night, Sky News (in Australia) broke from their relentless reports about David Hicks to say that the oceans will rise 88cm instead of the 59cm predicted in 2001. Later they dropped mentioning figures at all.
Maybe they stopped mentioning figures because they were washed away in a tsunami.
- The laugh-out-loud headline in today’s Age is “Will my house be swept away by a tsunami?”
“Ten tell-tale signs that your house is being swept away by a tsunami”,
“Post-tsunami decorating ideas”,
“Feng shui to ward off tsunamis”,
“Tsunami change: the young professionals who are leaving it all behind to cling to a bit of floating wreckage”
- “the oceans will rise 88cm”
Not enough to submerge the People’s Republics of San Francisco or Berkeley, I see.
Well, perhaps we’ll get better numbers as the planet heats up.Posted by Dave Surls on 2007 02 02 at 08:34 PM • permalink
- #18 Hollywood accounting would probably involve rounding to the nearest 75, in which case, they are still identical.Posted by AlburyShifton on 2007 02 02 at 08:35 PM • permalink
- How foolish you appear, mein Blog-Führer. Like all disingenuous demagogues your use-by date approacheth with the advent of each new authoritative chunk of undeniable evidence.
Is this how you avert your eyes from the atrocities you cheered to fuition in Iraq?Posted by Miranda Divide on 2007 02 02 at 08:47 PM • permalink
- Is he the bookkeeper for WebDiary, too?Posted by richard mcenroe on 2007 02 02 at 09:02 PM • permalink
Is this how you avert your eyes from the atrocities you cheered to fuition in Iraq?
Nice spelling, Fuckhead!Posted by AlburyShifton on 2007 02 02 at 09:04 PM • permalink
- Who gives a shit, dirt mouth?!Posted by Miranda Divide on 2007 02 02 at 09:12 PM • permalink
- Molestrodamus will now make a prediction for you my children!! Huddle into my darkened gypsy tent and look into my crystal ball, closer, closer, closer…..
AIEEEE, DEATH, DOOM, FEAR, CATS AND DOGS LIVING TOGETHER!!!!!!!!!!
I see WEATHER and its CHANGING ALL THE TIME!!!!
But there are 3 ways to avoid this.
1. you must cross my palm with gold (silver is so 20th century) and I shall evoke carbon credits in your name that the Evil shall be avoided. But know this it may be that the Evil is so far advanced it cannot be avoided, so I’m not to blame if it does happen anyway. (Insert hag like cackle here)
2. Do nothing something may happen or may not, but if it does I warned you.
3. KILL EVERYONE IN THE WHOLE WORLD!!!!!
(More hideous cackling)Posted by thefrollickingmole on 2007 02 02 at 09:19 PM • permalink
- My real prediction?
The UN will finally be provided with a means to tax individuals. As the only “trustworthy global honest broker” a form of GST (carbon credits?) will be put on pretty well everything.
All that is going on at the moment is merely propaganda and softening up for that. Id give it 5 years max till it is in place in some form or another, paid direct to the UN.
OOOOh looky here
carbon tax for the UN.
The Swiss aren’t scared to sacrifice their heavy industry?
Nice little economy you’ve got, shame if anything was to “accidentally” happen to it?
(computer wouldnt let me do the whole lot at once)Posted by thefrollickingmole on 2007 02 02 at 09:20 PM • permalink
- Hey, everybody, guess what? One of the potato diggers at the funny farm has been granted computerprivileges!
Who gives a shit, dirt mouth?!
Hey, it was Frank Hardy’s granddaughter who told us that the use of “Fuckhead” was a legitimate form of argumentation. Whatsamatter Miranda, fallen out of lockstep with your comrades? Oh, boo hoo!Posted by AlburyShifton on 2007 02 02 at 09:39 PM • permalink
- #43 or Chestnut Lodge is offering “Trolling 101” as an elective this term…Posted by Vanguard of the Commentariat on 2007 02 02 at 09:40 PM • permalink
In an era of Gorebal Warmening, post hoc ergo propter hoc equals “undeniable evidence”.Posted by Spiny Norman on 2007 02 02 at 09:56 PM • permalink
- “Ten tell-tale signs that your house is being swept away by a tsunami”
1. There is water in places in which you do not expect it to be.
2. You find that respiration is not possible due to said abundance of water (note: this is not always a reliable indicator of a tsunami, as it is also possible that you have stuck your head into a goldfish bowl.)
3. Your neighbors houses are disappearing in a torrent of rapidly inrushing water.
4. You house no longer seems to be anchored to its foundation. Please note that in tsunami conditions, it is unwise to verify this by venturing out of doors.
5. One or more structural walls to your house are missing.
7. You find yourself the owner of newly minted oceanfront property. In this case, it is recommended that you sell your property within the next five seconds, to ensure maximum resale value.
8. when looking outside, a nightmarish combination of debris, livestock, and sneering Liberal MPs appears in rapid succession.
9.Your purchases of carbon credits start to seem rather pointless.
10.You seem to vaguely remember something about sirens, evacuation warnings, neighbors fleeing in panic, and now realize that you probably should have done something about it.
- Geez, I was reading Miranda’s diatribe without being aware of the byline, and I actually thought it was a random parody until I got to the “Posted by”.
#48, spot on. Ever get the feeling she’s not even trying anymore?Posted by ArtVandelay on 2007 02 02 at 10:00 PM • permalink
- #39 – AlburyShifton, that is the first time in living memory Miranda (lets hope her legs don’t) Divide has replied to a commentor’s post. You are to be congratulated!Posted by Infidel Tiger on 2007 02 02 at 10:08 PM • permalink
- #52, Laughing hard, Vexorg. And I think some of the other tell-tale signs are:
11. When you look out the window, Auntie Em and that mean old schoolteacher are floating by.
12. When your house finally comes to rest, it squashes the Wicked Witch of the North.
13. When you finally find the Wizard of O2, it turns out to be Al Gore, booming from behind a big scary powerpoint presentation “SILLENNCE!! WHO ARE YOU TO QUESTION THE GREAT AND POWERFUL O2?!”
- I’m guessing that Miranda hasn’t commented here in a good 2 months. What could keep someone busy for 2 months over summer? Wouldn’t have been school holidays would it?Posted by Infidel Tiger on 2007 02 02 at 10:20 PM • permalink
- Guys, guys, we do not engage the Great Miranda in argument—a futile gesture, as if one tried to teach a chair cushion to do calculus. Instead, we merely sit back and enjoy.
Another outburst from one of the peculiar denizens of Trollvania that I kept around for our amusement may be contemplated here.Posted by Andrea Harris, Administrator on 2007 02 02 at 11:09 PM • permalink
- lubos has a good summary of the summary.
– the ipcc has only releases the summary not the full report which will be released in three months.
– the confidence intervals are now larger. 90% from 95%.
– some simple mathematical errors have been spotted in the summary by some posters at realclimate
the junkman also has a copy of the draft full report.Posted by drscroogemcduck on 2007 02 02 at 11:13 PM • permalink
Yer mum shoulda practised more birth conTroll
Nah, her dad should just have settled for the massage . . . .Posted by Young and Free on 2007 02 02 at 11:25 PM • permalink
- Maybe I’ll wake up to my inanity, but I sure as shit won’t be rapping my forehead afterwards and saying “I should’ve voted for that nice socialist man and traded all my ill gotten gains for carbon credits!” For one thing, usually when I wake up, I have a nice hearty breakfast before anything else.Posted by Vanguard of the Commentariat on 2007 02 02 at 11:32 PM • permalink
- #64. ‘Scientists’ say it is true, so it must be. Is that not typical of these people’s way of thinking. Just believe it is true, because someone who is a ‘scientist’ and follows their idological line says so. Or give yourself any meaningless title, to back up your pseudo-intellectual ‘qualifications’, and this mob will believe it. They say allowing children to watch too much television and videos can affect their perceptions later on in life. I think too much access to fairy tales could be a contributing factor here. Throw in the collective thinking processes, and before you know it, the people with the meaningless titles and political ideologues are ripping hell for leather for your wallet, while scaremongering with doomsday tales, that are frequently altered to fit the scenerio. But there are plenty of ‘suckers’ out there ready to swallow it. Hell, I am in the wrong bloody business.
- *sigh* Miranda again. Really, Tim, I’m losing faith in the ability of Great Bloggers Like Yourself to attract interesting trolls. We keep getting the same ones, and they have absolutely nothing new to offer. I just had a talk with Jules Crittenden about this.
- I’ve just about given up on expecting interesting trolls, and I’m actually pretty happy that the place has quietened down some recently and even uninteresting trolls don’t come around much anymore.
I’m hopeful though for mid-2008, after both American parties have selected their presidential candidates. With Dubya not up for re-election at least we ought to get trolls with a differently-obsessive focus for once.
- I’d actually volunteer to be “duty troll” PW, but I honestly can’t come up with any logical arguments from the troll side of the house to sustain the level of effort that would be required to do the job correctly.
I guess I could go over and read up on Democratic Underground or Kos, but that wouldn’t make me smart, that would make me sick.Posted by Vanguard of the Commentariat on 2007 02 03 at 12:26 AM • permalink
- Re the debate on Jules’ site: I especially like this comment by “alphie”:
Our helicopters sare quite capable of surviving on the battlefield provided they are used correctly. They aren’t designed to fly out in the open as they have been in Iraq.
Where the hell does he think they were designed to fly? Inside the dome at Epcot?Posted by Andrea Harris, Administrator on 2007 02 03 at 12:50 AM • permalink
- #70 Rebecca
I dont think old alfafa boy quite grasps the concept of “shelf life” or “single use weapons”.
Any ex-millitary or better informed people here have an idea what the shelf life of a stinger ground to air missile is?? Id be betting its less than 25 years.Posted by thefrollickingmole on 2007 02 03 at 12:52 AM • permalink
- #76 Andrea: And if I recollect right, Alphie is also of the opinion that our helicopters in Iraq are being shot down with missiles that we gave to Afghan guerillas during the Soviet era. Yeah, if I were offered a choice between some rusty old junk from 20 years ago, and an up-to-date weapon fresh from Iran, that would be certainly be my pick.
- #78 Yes, they’re somehow shooting down our helo’s with Stingers we sold them 25 years ago, but the 15 year old chemical rounds we found in Iraq recently were “inconsequential to the debate” about WMDs. The manipulation of “facts” by the media in the service of their own agenda continues to be an enemy of the decent.Posted by Vanguard of the Commentariat on 2007 02 03 at 01:11 AM • permalink
- #72 – I’d actually volunteer to be “duty troll” PW, but I honestly can’t come up with any logical arguments from the troll side of the house to sustain the level of effort that would be required to do the job correctly.
Hey, don’t sweat it. Neither can they.Posted by Steve Skubinna on 2007 02 03 at 01:25 AM • permalink
- OT, but did you see this? High-profile Guantanamo detainees face new charges:
The U.S. military prepared new charges Friday against three of the best-known detainees at Guantanamo Bay — a key step toward resuming the military tribunals for terrorism suspects that were halted by the U.S. Supreme Court last year.
Authorities drafted new charges — including murder, conspiracy and providing material support for terrorism — against Canadian Omar Khadr, Australian David Hicks and Salim Ahmed Hamdan of Yemen, said Air Force Col. Morris Davis, chief prosecutor in the Guantanamo war crimes trials.
Bet he’s really depressed now.Posted by Kyda Sylvester on 2007 02 03 at 01:26 AM • permalink
- As to Stinger missiles, the really critical item so far as shelf life goes is the battery, which is a thermochemical affair that is single use. Once inserted into the launcher it rapidly spins up the gyros and has an active life of 45 seconds, after which it’s just a useless piece of very hot junk whether you fire the missile within that window or not.
If I recall correctly (and it’s been nearly twenty years since I handled one) their shelf life is about five years. So even if the missiles are still usable, the batteries are not, and these aren’t available at the local home store. It’d require a pretty sophisticated plant to build new ones. I suppose Iraq (or any other nation with a reasonably modern industrial base) could do it, but your local jihadis certainly can’t.Posted by Steve Skubinna on 2007 02 03 at 01:30 AM • permalink
- 83. Thanks for that. Those facts can be irritating when used on a troll.Posted by thefrollickingmole on 2007 02 03 at 01:39 AM • permalink
- RE #52, “Ten tell-tale signs that your house is being swept away by a tsunami”:
#14: Flushing your toilet seems to be ineffective.
And, in honor of the UN report on global goreming, I would like to proudly announce that my new wood stove currently has a very hot fire in it, burning wood hacked out of innocent trees that were brutally cut down after years of tender care by Mother Gaia™.
Oh, and the tiles that the wood stove sits on are made of natural slate ripped from the flesh of Mother Gaia™. The top is natural, but the bottoms are not only flat, they show the cruel scars from the blades that carved them into the delightful shapes that now adorn my living room.
BUAWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!Posted by The_Real_JeffS on 2007 02 03 at 02:16 AM • permalink
How foolish you appear, mein Blog-Führer. Like all disingenuous demagogues your use-by date approacheth with the advent of each new authoritative chunk of undeniable evidence.
Is this how you avert your eyes from the atrocities you cheered to fuition in Iraq?
Ah, bathe in the glory of the microcephalic wisdom of the Moronda, peons!
Well, someone has to bathe, and Moronda being a spavined smelly hippy means that it has never been her.
We have all been made such fools of by the majestic truthiness of the UN, so says Moronda.
Ignore the oil-for-food scandal, the gravy train of incompetence, the corruption, the UN-inspired ‘removal’ of the Mediaeval warm period and bow down to UNical glory.
All bowed down?
Now, grab your ankles REAL tight…. BOHICA!
Ignore that pounding sensation in your arse, it’s just the UN ‘administering’ to you.
FOlks, you ain’t gonna change Moronda, she’s a true believer in teh chirch of glowball worming.
That Alphie guy who plagues Jule’s Crittenden’s blog site is about as dumb as they come.
The same moron has popped up at Protein Wisdom. There, he’s declaring that a 33% increase in antisemitic attacks in Britain are nothing to care about, and that the jihadis in Iraq are simultaneously “sophisticated” and “peasants”.Posted by Rob Crawford on 2007 02 03 at 10:14 AM • permalink
- Lord Monckton’s analysis and summary of theIPCC’s fourth assessment report – here– is a great demolition job and a must read. I particularly loved the section where Monckton points out that additional humidity in the air has caused the Sahara desert to shrink by 300,000 sq kilometres in the past 20 years.
- It’s not the tsunamis that worry me, it’s the giant spiders: globall warming
- #90 thanks for the link. This spike in the climate change debate will certainly bring out the exaggerations, half-truths, incomplete and unproven evidence on which the IPCC bases its conclusions.
One good thing already emerging from the hoopla: because even the IPCC has slashed its predictions by over a third, the Stern report is dead. One can fine its grave, clearly marked, next to the hockey stick’s.
- Re my post #29 on The Australian screwing up its reportage of the “narrower” – no, “wider (we mixed it up)”, “no again, we transposed the figures” IPCC forecast of temperature increases by 2100:
The Australian has declined to correct its print version report of Saturday, although its (concealed) correction in the on-line version reveals that it is aware of the error. As a result, a reader, Neil Stuart, of Moggill, Qld, has made the mistake of believing what he read in print on Saturday, and writing a letter to The Australian based on the erroneous reportage:
“I also observe that after six years and billions of dollars in research the predicted temperature increase range is now wider (from 1.4C to 5.8C in 2001 to 1.1C to 6.4C now). This suggests that the more we research this extremely complex matter the less precise our predictions become.”Moreover, the Australian’s Letters editor has also been deluded by the Saturday print report, as he has given the Stuart letter top-of-the-page and four-column headline treatment.
Correcting errors is good policy for a newspaper, regardless of the ensuing egg on the face of reporters and sub-editors.
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C’mon, Tim; there are only so many hours in the day. It could take us weeks to compile the data.