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Last updated on August 9th, 2017 at 01:06 pm
Robert Fisk asks:
Is it possible – is it conceivable – that Israel is losing its war in Lebanon?
Place this in the same file as earlier Fisk questions:
2003: How, I kept asking myself, could the Americans batter their way through these defenses?
2005: Would the Syrians dream of doing anything so crude and vicious as this?
- Well, at least he’s a reliable guide. Wrong 100% of the time.Posted by JorgXMcKie on 2006 07 28 at 11:50 PM • permalink
- He’s straight out of “Little Big Man”:
“Major, this man is a perfect reverse barometer!”
Posted by Vanguard of the Commentariat on 2006 07 29 at 12:06 AM • permalink
- I am a new member to this means of communicating to like minded people, although I have been reading your comments for many months. My daughters call me Becker, from the TV show and my friends think I’m a bit to the right of Ghengis Khan.
My first comment is a question, what qualifications does this Fisk character have in order to make such statements?
- O/T but a plastic turkey sighting by one of Oz’s most selfrespecting jouros. Phillip Addams mentions it again in his weekly winge in the Australian magazine.
“Is it possible – is it conceivable – that the plastic turkey will live forever?”Posted by thefrollickingmole on 2006 07 29 at 12:35 AM • permalink
- Fisk 2006: Is it possible that I could be anymore crazy? What if I inserted a chicken into my rectum, covered myself in glitter and ran around in circles simultaneously rubbing my tummy and patting head?Posted by Infidel Tiger on 2006 07 29 at 12:46 AM • permalink
Because he always says what the left wants to hear and doesn’t bother them with any of that pesky logic or fact stuff.
Posted by Achillea on 2006 07 29 at 12:35 AM • permalinkProbably not best post to suggest logic will determine whether Fisk is right.
When it comes to victory here Israel’s stated goal is to wipe out Hizbollah. Hizbollah will achieve victory simply by surviving. You will find no shortage of military and political experts exploring the same topic in the past few weeks.So is there someone who thinks air strikes and limited incursions into an area where a 20 year invasion/occupation campaign didn’t achieve this same goal against a far less significant and integrated Hizbollah presence is going to go better this time around ?
Nobody ? Okay then, guess that settles the issue of whether Israeli success is questionable when you bring logic into the equation. Now back to the Fisk jokes.
- I once told my husband that if I were a general I’d be George Patton. And he said, no, you’d be Ghengis Khan. He swore it was a compliment.
Who’s Robert Fisk?
Posted by Kyda Sylvester on 2006 07 29 at 01:21 AM • permalink
- #2, It is possible Paco, but only due to the superior dog nose…
#12, “So is there someone who thinks air strikes and limited incursions into an area where a 20 year invasion/occupation campaign didn’t achieve this same goal against a far less significant and integrated Hizbollah presence is going to go better this time around ?”
Yes, I do, they just need some of those B-52’s gathering dust at Davis-Monthan.Its very hard to make rockets if your land has been recently bombed back to the stone age. Thats not just a saying either, you take out water, power, roads, manufacturing, communications, sewage and anything else created since Jesus died.
Give them a couple weeks to use up the rockets they already have, maybe get a bit thirsty too, and then send in the Merkeva’s.
Kofi will not approve. Fuck him.
Posted by The_Wizard_of_WOZ on 2006 07 29 at 01:24 AM • permalink
- Oh man. I just got back from Counterpunch. Please, somebody, stop me before I do that again.Posted by Kyda Sylvester on 2006 07 29 at 01:30 AM • permalink
- If Robert Fisk is
masturbatingwaxing breathless over a possible Arab/Jihadi victory, you can be certain they’re about to go down in ignominious defeat.Posted by Spiny Norman on 2006 07 29 at 01:56 AM • permalink
If Robert Fisk is masturbating
waxing breathlessover a possible Arab/Jihadi victory, you can be certain they’re about to go down in ignominious defeat.Thanks for the reminder, Spiny…..Tank, why don’t you go and give Fisk a hand?
Posted by The_Real_JeffS on 2006 07 29 at 01:59 AM • permalink
- Does the creep really not know this, NYT
“Hezbollah came to Ain Ebel to shoot its rockets,” said Fayad Hanna Amar, a young Christian man, referring to his village. “They are shooting from between our houses.”
“Please,’’ he added, “write that in your newspaper…… Mr. Amar said Hezbollah fighters in groups of two and three had come into Ain Ebel, less than a mile from Bint Jbail, where most of the fighting has occurred. They were using it as a base to shoot rockets, he said, and the Israelis fired back.
One woman, who would not give her name because she had a government job and feared retribution, said Hezbollah fighters had killed a man who was trying to leave Bint Jbail.
“This is what’s happening, but no one wants to say it” for fear of Hezbollah, she said.”Of course the the NYT points out Christians used to get on with the Israelis. Obviously their own fault.
Article reproduced at this site, commentary from Lebanese , eg confirmation of HA using Christian villages and churches.
- #12 Tank
When it comes to victory here Israel’s stated goal is to wipe out Hizbollah
I don’t agree that that is Israel’s stated goal. From the outset it has been the return of the two kidnapped soldiers and full implementation of UN Resolution 1559, ie all terrorists (militants as they’re called at the UN) disarmed and out of southern Lebanon, etcetera.
If Hezb’Allah are virtually wiped out from southern Lebanon at the same time, that’d be a bonus. For everyone. But as Hezb’Allah are actually an Iranian terrorist group, striking them in southern Lebanon will not be effective in wiping them out.
- A missile goes dead centre through the roof of an ambulance and the drivers are just hurt and one of the injured survives. Correct me if I am wrong but they should have been mincemeat. Smells of a yarn to me.
“even to call for a 24-hour ceasefire to allow the 3,000 civilians still trapped between Qlaya and Bint Jbeil… to flee”
What and have Hizbollah shoot them. What a nasty suggestion Fisk.
As with these poor sods.
“Several suspected spies were shot dead in the southern Lebanese port of Tyre, witness said on Thursday.
Passengers on board an evacuation ship told medical doctor Boris Buck from the German city of Munich that they had seen members of the Lebanese Shi’ite Hezbollah group or their sympathisers killing 18 Lebanese people during the night.
The victims were suspected of helping the Israeli air force pick out targets.”
Got any neighbours whose apartment you would like Fisk. Just tell Hizbollah they are spies and kaboom, no worries about messy trials.
And there won’t be any one being tortured with electricity in the village of Mari, Druze. Hamas cut off their water and electricity. No doubt there is a Red Cross report somewhere saying bad Israelis causing humanitarian disaster in Mari.
How long can Fisk and the media go on pretending that Hizbollah aren’t the same violent murderous mob, who controls through fear or execution, that they always were.
- Fisk is getting another stubby little hard-on at the thought of his valiant Jihadis defeating the hated Jews. I seem to remember him writing an article on how the mossad were in serious trouble how that Al Qaeda were going after them. He waxed breathless on how the hard men of AQ would show those Jews what for. When I last checked his heros were still living in caves and pissing their pants every time they heard an aircraft engine go overhead.
Utterly pathetic, what a shame that IDF missile missed this fat, turgid little shitstain.
- Okay then, guess that settles the issue of whether Israeli success is questionable when you bring logic into the equation.
Oh child, you really need to actually learn logic before you start trying to invoke it. Familiarizing yourself with politics and military strategy wouldn’t go amiss, either.
As spyder has pointed out, completely exterminating Hezballah has never been Israel’s goal, declared or otherwise. Neutralizing them as a threat to Israel is the goal, and that’s pefectly doable now that we’ve got guys (and Condi) with ‘nads running the Anglosphere. At this point, it’s more than doable, it looks quite probable.
It’s absolutely hilarious watching the lefties practically pissing themselves with glee predicting an Israeli defeat from a dozen casualties and no storming of Beirut. You’d think you lot would learn from getting burned by previous premature quagmire jigs, but nope, the fantasy of dead Jews dances before your mind’s eye like a mirage of an oasis. You done been rope-a-doped, son. Again.
#1: A missile goes dead centre through the roof of an ambulance and the drivers are just hurt and one of the injured survives. Correct me if I am wrong but they should have been mincemeat. Smells of a yarn to me.
#2: Either that or a dud Katyusha.
Both scenarios resulting in a far more pungent yarn involving Israeli gunships firing Katyusha rockets or Israeli military spokesmen justifying strikes on vehicles they didn’t actually strike.
Either of those details are kind of hard to avoid learning from news accounts about the incident.
Oh child, you really need to actually learn logic before you start trying to invoke it. Familiarizing yourself with politics and military strategy wouldn’t go amiss, either.
Feel free to chip in with some then chump. I assume the idea of writing that was that this would be something you were more than capable of doing.
As spyder has pointed out, completely exterminating Hezballah has never been Israel’s goal, declared or otherwise.
Actually it’s been stated quite a bit and is kind of central to the whole not having a ceasefire and bombing of urban areas look non-psychopathic. Rather large gathering of world leaders on the topic recently. Widely reported.
Neutralizing them as a threat to Israel is the goal…
Right, so you see a situation where Hizb remains in southern Lebanon as a non-threat to Israel, brought about via airstrikes and limited incursions.
You wanna have a crack at explaining how you see that working ? Probably going to involve talking up Hizb capacity for abandoning it’s anti-Israeli stance and pretty much every other faceat on which it was formed and run for decades. Go for it.…and that’s pefectly doable now that we’ve got guys (and Condi) with ‘nads running the Anglosphere. At this point, it’s more than doable, it looks quite probable.
Everyone running the anglosphere was doing just that before any of this started so that’s probably a strike against their influence meaning something, not for it.
Was there something more specific you wanted to point to other than the resumes of world leaders to support the probability of the current Israeli campaign ending the threat of Hizb ? Because you haven’t really justified the smart arse opening you made yet.In fact I think you even mentioned military strategy at one point, so how about some of that in support of your expectations in place of blind optimism.
It’s absolutely hilarious watching the lefties practically pissing themselves with glee predicting an Israeli defeat from a dozen casualties and no storming of Beirut.
How about the plethora of military and counterterrorism experts all doing the same thing I referred to ? Strike the same funny bone do they ?
Here’s a trick… try finding an impartial one who thinks (a) Israel has a chance of diminishing the threat of Hizb without completely wiping them out or (b) that attacking Lebanon without wiping them out will do something that diminishes support/standing of Hizb as opposed to strengthening it like it did last time.
This is the story of the moment for every military and counterterrorism commentator. There are like 13 billion pages indexed by google to select from including constant news coverage. You like those odds ?
You’d think you lot would learn from getting burned by previous premature quagmire jigs, but nope, the fantasy of dead Jews dances before your mind’s eye like a mirage of an oasis. You done been rope-a-doped, son. Again.
Posted by Achillea on 2006 07 29 at 03:19 AM • permalinkPrevious premature quagmire jigs ? LMAO what would those be son ? Do tell. I’ve got one in mind but it would be just grand if you’d be the first to suggest that call was wrong.
spyder: I don’t agree that (wiping out Hezb) is Israel’s stated goal. From the outset it has been the return of the two kidnapped soldiers and full implementation of UN Resolution 1559, ie all terrorists (militants as they’re called at the UN) disarmed and out of southern Lebanon, etcetera.
That’s what I said.
If there is some scenario where the group that outlasted the full invasion and occupation of southern Lebanon no longer has an armed presence there which doesn’t involve them all being dead I think you’d be the first to suggest what that is.Failing that it appears you actually do agree with me. I assume we’re not going to have a conversation about Hizb changing their policies because of something unrelated to the current military camapign like the possibility they’ll catch an episode of Oprah off the satellite and they all get in touch with their feelings and take Dr Phil’s advice about dealing with agression.
But as Hezb’Allah are actually an Iranian terrorist group, striking them in southern Lebanon will not be effective in wiping them out.
The issue is Hizb in southern Lebanon and you are completely correct. Now using your own stated interpretation of Israel’s goals you can re-read what I wrote about the likelyhood of the current campaign resulting in success AKA victory.
“If Robert Fisk is masturbating waxing breathless over a possible Arab/Jihadi victory, you can be certain they’re about to go down in ignominious defeat. “
Thanks for the reminder, Spiny…..Tank, why don’t you go and give Fisk a hand?
Posted by The_Real_JeffS on 2006 07 29 at 01:59 AM • permalinkBecause he clearly doesn’t need a hand. As I said there are no shortage of actual military and counterterrorism commentators saying the same thing as he is.
You think Bill Roggio is boning up in the exact same way “over a possible Arab/Jihadi victory” when he goes further than Fisk in stating the likelyhood of the same outcome ?
http://counterterrorismblog.org/2006/07/worst_case_scenario_hezbollahs.phpOr maybe the point you are missing is the problem is less about what those supposedly in favour of terrorist groups hope will happen and more about what those unquestionably opposed to terrorist groups fear will not only fail but strengthen terrorist groups given historic precedents, an understanding of military strategy and plain old logic.
It’s undoubtedly one of the two. Let’s wait and see which.
hey tank how about telling us your way of dealing with the situation instead of just slagging off all us bloodthirsty types, i mean what do you recomend, lets here it Tank
Posted by phillip on 2006 07 29 at 05:05 AM • permalinkWhat I would recommend for bloodthirsty types would depend on the desired outcome. If the idea is to actually defeat Hizbollah read the link I just posted:
“While Israel can degrade Hezbollah via air strikes, naval bombardments and limited raids, the Iranian proxy force cannot be defeated without putting boots on the ground in southern Lebanon and deep into the Bekaa Valley. Hezbollah fighters must be engaged on the ground to be defeated. Anything short of that – a buffer zone or negotiated settlement, both of which members of the Israel government and military has indicated it would accept – is a victory for Hezbollah and Iran. Hezbollah would have struck at Israeli cities and stood up the invincible Israeli army, while weakening the nascent Lebanese democracy and asserting itself as the true military power in the country. This would far exceed Hezbollah’s victory of the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000.”
Of course that’s not the only option if the idea is just to see Arab blood on the news frequently and collective punishment is more important than actual successes in striking at Hizbollah. Current aerial campaign against random urban areas, ambulances, tourist resorts etc seems to fill that ticket pretty well.
- #25 Er, Tank, is it? I assume that is your nomme de guerre? Either that or you were typing one handed, and missed the ‘W’ key? But I digress. Please tell me about your experience with anti-armour missiles? You seem to believe that a Hellfire missle would leave a little hole, and only slightly injure everyone inside a small van? I won’t attempt to debate your other points (there are others here much more capable of doing so), but I must say, what a crock. I have worked with anti- armour weapons and explosives for a number of years, and those pictures were a beat up. Of course, I haven’t got the experience that you would have attained in your lounge chair, so please enlighten me? Or are the Israelis using a new, deadly (non lethal) weapon in their (pretty poorly practiced, I will admit) genocide of the Arabs who claim to be from Palistine? As I said, others better that me will flay you here, I just wanted to waste a couple of minutes of my life telling you that you, son, are a wanker.
- If Israel’s goal in this war is to exterminate Hezbollah
As others have pointed out before (and assuming you a) bothered to read their posts, and b) are capable of understanding them), that’s not the primary goal. But thanks for trying to resurrect Tank’s strawman argument after it had already been shot down; another indication that I’m right that you’re really just a clueless dolt.
Please tell me about your experience with anti-armour missiles? You seem to believe that a Hellfire missle would leave a little hole, and only slightly injure everyone inside a small van? … I must say, what a crock. I have worked with anti- armour weapons and explosives for a number of years, and those pictures were a beat up. Of course, … As I said, others better that me will flay you here, I just wanted to waste a couple of minutes of my life telling you that you, son, are a wanker.
Posted by 185600 on 2006 07 29 at 05:58 AM • permalinkFucken A you just wasted a couple of minutes of your life doing that.
How else could you describe outlining your experience in identifying the results of a hellfire strike then using this as a basis for suggesting that no missile strike happened rather than just assuming a hellfire wasn’t involved ?I mean, you caught the part where I reminded everyone that reports of this incident involved Israeli gunships operating in the area, precision strikes on two ambulances, a justification for the attacks from the Israeli military and no denial of Israeli involvement in one of the more deniable-friendly incidents yet… those expressly forbidden under any circumstaces by the geneva conventions.
So knowing that a particular type of missile couldn’t have caused that damage your assumption apparently is (correct me if I have this wrong) that Hizbollah faked the incident, the Red Cross helped them out with the story, the Israeli air force was in on it by apparently reporting that they did strike vehicles which meant that their spokesman had to resort to justifying these attacks rather than the much more PR-friendly option of denying involvement. I get that right ?
I haven’t got the experience that you would have attained in your lounge chair, so please enlighten me? Or are the Israelis using a new, deadly (non lethal) weapon in their (pretty poorly practiced, I will admit) genocide of the Arabs who claim to be from Palistine?
You mean could the gunships most frequently cited in news reports as firing rockets at unarmoured targets be carrying rockets rather than anti-armour hellfire missiles ?
Fuck me what are the odds.In fact the odds are so low that if you take 4 seconds while sitting in your armchair like I just did and stick “israeli gunships” into google you have to search high and low all the way to the 5th result to find this:
Israeli helicopter gunships fired three missiles at a car today, killing one person and wounding 22, including seven children, doctors said … Four people were in the car targeted today,
Guess where you referring to your military experience as meaning something when it comes to having insight ends.
I won’t attempt to debate your other points (there are others here much more capable of doing so),
I guess you saw the complete lack of anyone referring to military strategy, me asking for someone to post just that and came to that conclusion.
Oh, and (W)Tank, I served in Afghanistan, how close have you been to a Jihadi recently?
Posted by 185600 on 2006 07 29 at 06:00 AM • permalinkWell let’s say a few thousand kilometres… WTF would your point be idiot ? That the heat has gotten to you ?
Tank, thank you for not replying to my question, what in your opinion should be done?
Posted by phillip on 2006 07 29 at 07:05 AM • permalinkThank you for not reading my first reply to that question where I asked you to read an external blog entry then quoted quite a bit of it here for no particular reason.
As others have pointed out before (and assuming you a) bothered to read their posts, and b) are capable of understanding them), that’s not the primary goal. But thanks for trying to resurrect Tank’s strawman argument after it had already been shot down; another indication that I’m right that you’re really just a clueless dolt.
Posted by PW on 2006 07 29 at 07:58 AM • permalinkTank’s straw man arguement is of course that Israel’s goal is to wipe out Hizbollah using a campaign of airstrikes and limited incursions in southern Lebanon.
Others have pointed out that Israel’s goal is in fact to wipe out Hizbollah only in southern Lebanon.Some might realise that both posters were saying the same thing, especially after this was explained. You opted to call someone a clueless dolt for not being able to tell the difference between the two. Great work.
You wish to see a full scale ground invasion of Lebanon?
Posted by phillip on 2006 07 29 at 08:33 AMNo. Like I said, read what I wrote. The desired outcome dictates the actions required to achieve it. We were discussing Israel’s objective to break the back of Hizbollah in southern Lebanon.
Right now Hizbollah attacks have increased not decreased. More rockets of higher sophistication have been used not less. Hizb infantry have fought Israeli units to a standstill with more impressive numbers, armaments and tactics than anyone expected. Support for Hizbollah attacking Israel among everyone in Lebanon including non-Shiite religious groups has skyrocketed not decreased. Hizb has the same conditions for release for those hostages they had at the start. Israel’s stated military goals match those which handed Hizb their greatest victory.
So I wish Israel hadn’t opted for a miltary campaign that has done and will do nothing more than kill a lot of innocent civilians and piss everyone off while increasing support for the group that poses a threat to their own civilians given that doing this doesn’t achieve their stated reason for doing so and pretty much just makes things worse for everybody involved. But they did.
- But Tank, how would a durable political solution be found, hezbollah has no valid reason to exist, the Israelis left Lebanon 6 years ago, surely logic would dictate that the need for an armed resistance movement end with it, but instead hezbollah massivly increased its arsenal of weapons and became the de facto government of south lebanon.
recent history has shown that Israels concessions only embolden there enemys who see any concession as a sign of weakness, even if a deal were possible it would last only as long as it suited hezbollah or its iranian masters, such a deal would be short lived and only to the terrorists advantage.
The cause of the conflict is the arab/islamic deep seated hatred of the jews, a genocidal and irrational hate they show no sign of wishing to relinquish.
- Also, Tank, you seem to imply that Scumbollah will win this one. If that’s so, why is their leader hiding in the Iranian embassy? And wearing civilian clothes instead of his usual clerical robes?
- So I wish Israel hadn’t opted for a miltary campaign that has done and will do nothing more than kill a lot of innocent civilians and piss everyone off while increasing support for the group that poses a threat to their own civilians given that doing this doesn’t achieve their stated reason for doing so and pretty much just makes things worse for everybody involved. But they did.
First off, commas are very inexpensive. Invest in a few. On to the meat of this.
They didn’t, and they’re not done yet. Everybody seems to expect them to snap their fingers and solve the problem and then cries ‘failure’ when it doesn’t happen instantly.
Israel had a difficult problem—a hostile guerilla group of growing power which had proved impervious to neutralization by political means … with things as they currently stood politically. She also knew she had a friendly US administration that was willing to thumb its nose at world opinion. So Israel waited until Hezballah gave them an excuse, which Hez obligingly did.
There’s a favorite lefty tenet that guerilla groups cannot be defeated by conventional military. Like most lefty beliefs, it’s ignorant and ahistorical. It can be done, it has been done, and it will continue to be done. The trick is to keep them from simply fading back into the civilian population (used to be you could simply wipe out the civilian population, but that’s not an option here). The fade power is the guerilla’s greatest weapon—but Hezballah isn’t using it. They’re standing and fighting, meeting a far more powerful conventional military on its own terms. Why? Partly because of their own overblown bombast, but largely because Israel keeps dangling the carrot of victory just out of their reach. There’ll be a ceasefire aaaaaany day now. The IDF is being uncharacteristically slow, they must be afraid of the bold jihadis. The Israeli government’s will is flagging. Just need to hold out for another day, maybe two, perhaps three … well, it could be another week or so, but it’s for the glorious jihad, so stand your ground, boys! Meanwhile, Israel continues its air campaign choking off their supply lines and degrading their support structure (I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re somehow tracing Hez communications for targeting info—they’re a nation of technogeeks with a satellite). Also a safe bet they have special forces operating in the Hez rear.
Hez is fighting about as stupidly as they possibly could, short of launching an open-ground infantry assault. They’ve invested in tunnels, which are just pre-dug graves when used against an experienced opponent. They’ve also invested heavily in rockets, which are basically useless. They don’t degrade Israel’s military in the least and their annoyance value is more than counterbalanced by the unity they’ve inspired and the PR bonus Israel derives from blatant attacks on her civilians. Plus they’re big and flashy, so when they run out and fall silent, it’s going to be a big morale blow to Hez and their supporters and a big boost to Israel. It might also be the cue Israel is waiting for that it’s time to quit playing around and spring their trap, before the rats try to bail out. We shall see on that.
Meanwhile, there are hundreds of thousands of displaced Shiia now living cheek-by-jowl with a couple million Sunnis, Christians, and Druze who viewed them with dislike and contempt even before this. It’s summer, so it’s hot. Toss in a whole lotta stress and frustration. Arab societies don’t unite under pressure, they fragment along tribal and sectarian lines. And they blame somebody else for their woes. Israel’s out of reach, but the Shiia are right there (and probably being whiny and annoying, to boot). Hezballah is executing Christians in the streeets and word is leaking out of them attacking Christian and Druze villages. There have already been instances of mob attacks on Hezballah sympathizers, and it’s only going to get worse. Eventually it will reach the level of outright civil war.
All the strategy needs is Israeli political will and time. Bibi’s smiling, so I’m not worried about the will. And what’s happening on the international pressure front? The UN is thrashing around ineffectually, as usual. Condi is shuttling hither and yon playing ‘who’ll bell the cat.’ Conferences are being held. Negotiations negotiated. Hez itself is stalling for time, convinced by its own pr that it can go head-to-head with the hated Zionists. There’s a lot of sturm und drang, everybody talking about how horrible it is and how something must be done, but nothing’s been worked out on paper, let alone on the ground.
- You opted to call someone a clueless dolt for not being able to tell the difference between the two. Great work.
I take it you’re just ragging on me out of general principle, while not actually disputing that my assessment of his doltery was correct? As an olive branch, if you were really just misunderstood the first time around, let’s amend my statement from “gson recycled Tank’s strawman” to “gson produced his very own strawman based on either misreading or ignoring the previous 15 or so posts in the thread, mostly in the name of sticking up for that poor misunderstood Robert Fisk”. I suppose that would make gson an even bigger dolt than I thought at first.
But Tank, how would a durable political solution be found (in the middle east)…
That’s really not a question for blogs any more than “how would cold fusion work” is.
recent history has shown that Israels concessions only embolden there enemys who see any concession as a sign of weakness, even if a deal were possible it would last only as long as it suited hezbollah or its iranian masters, such a deal would be short lived and only to the terrorists advantage.
Posted by phillip on 2006 07 29 at 10:28 AM • permalinkWell it certainly seemed possible given the very public prisoner exchange demands and the fact these type of exchanges have been completed before between Israel and these groups.
But if that scenario was only to the terrorist’s advantage the option to let the soldiers die in captivity is also on the table. I mean we are instead dealing with the long-lived option far more to the terrorist’s advantage which hasn’t seen their release. If they are going to die for the sake of this excercise I don’t see how opting for all the rest of the negative implications of this strategy without seeking any of the positive outcomes serves anyone.
Almost everyone here sees this war not as Israeli aggression, but as Israeli self-defense. Which side are you on, Tank?
gson need not reply. We already know he is a terrorist sympathizer.
Posted by RebeccaH on 2006 07 29 at 12:36 PMAlso, Tank, you seem to imply that Scumbollah will win this one. If that’s so, why is their leader hiding in the Iranian embassy? And wearing civilian clothes instead of his usual clerical robes?
Posted by RebeccaH on 2006 07 29 at 12:47 PMIf you want to inject something as pointless and far beneath an existing discussion on a conflict as these then “do you support the troops?” takes up far less space RebeccaH.
- OK Tank re type of weapon fired from helo:
If it was a missle/rocket fired from a Jewish Helo, it would be either a hellfire, a TOW or an FFAR. Now it would have been much better if you could have told us if the round in question was fired from a AH-1 cobra or a AH-64 Apache. But considering you suck arse, I wont worry too much. (Is that going too far?)
Three points here, Damage level, damage type and accuracy.
Damage level. TOW’s and Hellfires are ANTI TANK weapons, which means if you hit a car/van with them, there is no car/van anymore. Fuck off you can drive it away like the taxi driver with the roof pushed in on CNN. Even a 70mm rocket like the ffar would do far more damage. Methinks a hand grenade taped to the roof would provide similar results to the footage we have seen.
Which brings me to point #2, damage type. As noted previouslt TOW’s and Hellfires are AT weapons, the nature of a modern AT warhead is that it focuses all its energy into a small area of the tank and burns its way through. It most certainly does not spray ball bearing sized (and perfectly spherical from the damage foto’s ive seen) shrapnel about. Once again a hand greande on the roof would provide the type of blast damage we can see, a homemade one would have ball bearings.
And lastly accuracy. Hellfires are the only weapon fired from IDF Helo’s that would have that kind of accuracy, TOW’s are good, but you couldnt get the centre of the cross like that. FFAR’s? well I know the Jews are good shots, but aint nobody that good from a moving chopper to a moving car with a dumb rocket. Please.
So an 8kg shaped charge hits an ambo smack bang in the centre of its roof, and people walk away? Sorry, people dont walk away if this thing hits a 60+ ton tank. What chance do they have in a van?
Posted by The_Wizard_of_WOZ on 2006 07 30 at 12:57 AM • permalink
- @ Achillea on 2006 07 29 at 01:16
They didn’t, and they’re not done yet. Everybody seems to expect them to snap their fingers and solve the problem and then cries ‘failure’ when it doesn’t happen instantly.
Posted by Achillea on 2006 07 29 at 01:16Well they are done in terms of a full invasion since that’s been ruled out from the outset. Also nobody here was discussing an instant success, we were discussing an eventual success via a far longer campaign actually.
I note though that while it’s quite easy to suggest people expecting an instant success is unrealistic it seems quite hard for you to state you expect an eventual one from the current campaign. I did ask you to actually state you thought this limited incursion would succeed where a complete invasion didn’t against a far lesser foe if you actually believed this. Let’s just be puzzled why you didn’t quote those parts and address them directly.There’s a favorite lefty tenet that guerilla groups cannot be defeated by conventional military. Like most lefty beliefs, it’s ignorant and ahistorical. It can be done, it has been done, and it will continue to be done.
There’s a reason that non-lefty military types refer to it as 4th generation warfare. Also that when they wanted to differentiate it from 3rd generation warfare the number went up not down.
But that topic’s a little advanced to field in response to merely yet another “lefties think” straw man. Also would seem to be a waste of time when you’re happy to refer to the success of conventional (and in this case severely limited) warfare as succeeding against guerrillas/insurgencies yet don’t want to actually mention any. Again, let’s just wonder why that is.The trick is to keep them from simply fading back into the civilian population (used to be you could simply wipe out the civilian population, but that’s not an option here).
Nor is even being aware of their movements among a population let alone micro managing them without troops on the ground. I mean Iraq has been kind of easy to find in the news for the past 3 years. Same satellites, drones, helicopters and fighter jets in play. Are we thinking that fielding less than a single Israeli division is closer to the objective for providing monitoring capabilities, controlling and denying operations and movement to a guerrilla force than the 100000+ troops on the ground there ?
You mentioned earlier that lefties beliefs that conventional military cannot combat a guerrilla campaign and is contradicted by military history. What history are you reading where less forces fielded against a guerrilla force with popular local support has proved anything other that a flawed colossal failure ?
And really, please post it for everyone not just me. After “Fiasco” was published this week I can’t think of a better time for someone with your professed understanding of military strategy to remind us of the successes of limited conventional warfare and systems disruption has proved successful against guerilla groups/insurgencies with popular domestic support. Seriously, when even committed advisers who shaped the Iraq strategy are now writing off such strategies as ignorant and flawed at their own personal expense there’s never been a better time for you to share your knowledge of military history. Chop chop.
- @ Achillea on 2006 07 29 at 01:16
The fade power is the guerilla’s greatest weapon—but Hezballah isn’t using it. They’re standing and fighting, meeting a far more powerful conventional military on its own terms. Why? Partly because of their own overblown bombast, but largely because Israel keeps dangling the carrot of victory just out of their reach.Posted by Achillea on 2006 07 29 at 01:16
That’s an interesting interpretation for the actions of a military universally regarded as caring a lot (and needing to) about how they are percieved in terms of strenght vs weakness.
So in the largest engagement infantry to date it was somehow to Israel’s advantage to get ambushed and suffer politically heavy losses to their elite units, delcare this was the cost of securing the town, then spend about a week releasing reports which increasingly undermined that initially reported success and changed everyone’s opinion of Hizbollah vis-a-vis as an army capable of taking on Israel’s elite units and fighting them to a standstill with superior military tactics.There’s a shitload of military commentators you could reeducate on how well that went for the Israeli military and bad for Hizbollah if you actually believe this. Pretty much all of them. Then again you might have just as hard a time finding those analysts as you did for those I asked you to find in my last post. You know, on yet another point where you seem to differ from those providing supporting reasoning for their conclusions about military strategy it might start to look like random blog poster X doesn’t have a lot going for his conclusions.
There’ll be a ceasefire aaaaaany day now. The IDF is being uncharacteristically slow, they must be afraid of the bold jihadis. The Israeli government’s will is flagging.
I don’t know what these statements are supposed to represent. Is it a quick round-up of assessments not yet appearing in the press ? It’s called a straw man because it is something really easy to tear apart. You generally have to give it the appearance of a real issue though first. You could say “oh the Israeli’s will run out of yoghurt soon” and feel confident you are convincing the same amount of people who have heard this arguement made for why the current Israeli campaign will not be successful.
Just need to hold out for another day, maybe two, perhaps three … well, it could be another week or so, but it’s for the glorious jihad, so stand your ground, boys! Meanwhile, Israel continues its air campaign choking off their supply lines and degrading their support structure (I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re somehow tracing Hez communications for targeting info—they’re a nation of technogeeks with a satellite).
If they were I’d be suprised why they decide not to help out US troops in Iraq picking up indecipherable comms on the same gear, especially given the recent shift in focus there to shiite militias as the most pressing problem. Would seem odd for such a close ally fighting similar enemies in similar circumstance. Well, odd if you are right in your assumptions. What are the odds LOL.
Hez is fighting about as stupidly as they possibly could, short of launching an open-ground infantry assault. They’ve invested in tunnels, which are just pre-dug graves when used against an experienced opponent.
Yes because we all know what a disadvantage and useless resource tunnels and other guerrilla tactics were for guerilla armies taking on modern armies in the past (which includes 2004 when otherwise unassailable Israeli posts were obliterated). I mean there’s no shortage of stories about “learning the lessons of Vietnam” nowdays. Perhaps a refresher on the outcome there would help someone.
- @ Achillea on 2006 07 29 at 01:16
Plus (Hizb rockets are) big and flashy, so when they run out and fall silent, it’s going to be a big morale blow to Hez and their supporters and a big boost to Israel.
As I pointed out the volleys have increased in number and sophistication. They could however send one per day to the exact same effect in terms of news coverage and military impact. I don’t really see how an expectation of these rockets drying up or meaning something if they do is rational.
Meanwhile, there are hundreds of thousands of displaced Shiia now living cheek-by-jowl with a couple million Sunnis, Christians, and Druze who viewed them with dislike and contempt even before this … And they blame somebody else for their woes.
Yeah as I already referred to sentiment has been gauged already and unity has increased across religious lines not decreased. Hizbollah support for attacking Israel has increased not decreased. That somebody else the population blames for causing this is Israel.
Hezballah is executing Christians in the streeets and word is leaking out of them attacking Christian and Druze villages. There have already been instances of mob attacks on Hezballah sympathizers, and it’s only going to get worse. Eventually it will reach the level of outright civil war.
LMAO. If I recall correctly YOU were guy remarking how quick I was to call “quagmire” on conflicts in the middle east despite the fact only you suggested this. Now here you are predicting a civil war in week 2 with basically nothing to suggest this will occur and it’s not the “lefties” but apparently the “righties” who’ve welcolmed the undermining of what was proposed as a success story in terms of a fledgling middle-east democracy and establishment of that perpetual haven for terrorism, a failed state.
WTF is this bizarro reverso world ? Is this the part where I accost you for not supporting the troops and say you are a traitor for supporting terrorism ?All the strategy needs is Israeli political will and time. Bibi’s smiling, so I’m not worried about the will. And what’s happening on the international pressure front? The UN is thrashing around ineffectually, as usual. … There’s a lot of sturm und drang, everybody talking about how horrible it is and how something must be done, but nothing’s been worked out on paper, let alone on the ground.
Yeah… everyone’s talking about how horrible it is. That might be an indication on how optimistic you should be about open ended international tolerance for the current campaign without UN concessions holding out. I mean have you read today’s headlines about your lynchpin Condi pressing for an end to the conflict ? More cunning subterfuge no doubt.
Meanwhile we are where we were when you first suggested someone needed an education in military strategy and had childish notions about the objectives of this military campaign being met. Still nobody willing to even state under a psuedonym on a blog they believe a limited campaign in southern Lebanon will do anything to reduce the threat of Hizbollah to Israelis nor able to find any impartial military or counterterrorism analyst suggesting how this campaign serves anyone but Hizbollah. Super. What a great use of space that was.
OK Tank re type of weapon fired from helo:
If it was a missle/rocket fired from a Jewish Helo, it would be either a hellfire, a TOW or an FFAR. Now it would have been much better if you could have told us if the round in question was fired from a AH-1 cobra or a AH-64 Apache. But considering you suck arse, I wont worry too much. (Is that going too far?)Well yeah it is going a little far numbnut. I mean it’s the weekend (the sabbath no less). I generally only speak on behalf of the Israeli air force in providing statements to the public of my knowledge of what ordinance was loaded on Israeli helicopters and fired during specific engagements 9-5 mon-fri. You should convey your annoyance at me not doing this during those hours.
Three points here, Damage level, damage type and accuracy.
Just the 3 ? Well that’s a problem. You see when in every single post on a topic I refer people back to a single, repeated, unassailable problem which undermines all other points that’s the one you need to address in order for what you write to be worth reading.
And it’s not even the one where you say nobody could walk away from a rocket attack on an unarmoured vehicle in reply to a post where I referred you to the number of seconds it takes for you to find accounts of precisely that happening.
It’s the one where in order for this not to have been what has been reported literally every entity involved in the conflict including the Israeli military, Hizbollah and the Red Cross for some reason came together in an unprecedented show of unity to engineer a fake incident just to suggest Israel did something they have justified doing in the past and are doing on an ongoing basis.
I’ve referred to this problem that undermines all the ordinance and single-photo-analysis you have posted and could possibly post like 4 times now without anyone even attempting to tackle it. You can assume my level of interest in crap that doesnt address that ended there.
Here’s a tip though… if you find yourself running low on ways in which to question a pretty obvious incident where someone used the tactics they usually do, then justified them as they did in the past and you want to focus on some amatuer image interpretation as a way to avoid dealing with all the other witness accounts etc of what happened just so you can provide deniability to someone who neither needs or wants it… I could recommend some great conspiracy theory blogs to you.
The “look at thus single photo of bomb damage proving there was no * at the london trains/Jordan hotel/pentagon/etc” arguement is quite popular and infinitely transferrable nowdays. And a favourite among people with a certain need for an alternative account of events, contradictary witness accounts be damned.
The Israel Defense Forces said last night that Israeli fire hit an ambulance during fighting in the Qana area, east of Tyre. “The IDF never intentionally targets civilians, much less ambulances,” a spokesman said. “It should be noted that the area in which the incident took place is one from which there is intensive missile fire” directed toward Israel.
You think you look more sane than the conspiracy theory nimrods who think 1 particular suicide bombing in Iraq out of 500 was a US black-ops psy-ops double-false-flag photoshop job regardless of the fact it was claimed by the people responsible for the other 499 ?
You don’t. You’re are them. Let it go.
- Here’s an update on that battle I referred to earlier between elite Israeli units and Hizbollah in the town of Bint Jbail, originally declared captured by Israelover a week ago and the scene of Israel’s largest military losses to date…
Hezbollah declares victory after Israel announces troop withdrawal
JERUSALEM – Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah declared victory on Saturday after Israel announced it was withdrawing its forces from the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbail where Israeli troops found unexpected difficulty in dislodging the guerrilla group from its strongholds.Here are officials 2 weeks ago declaring that Israel will not stop until Hizbollah has been neutralised…
Strikes Are Called Part of Broad StrategyWhich can be compared and contrasted with the current situation outlined in that first article…
On Saturday, Regev (Israeli foreign ministry) suggested that Israel might agree to a cease-fire before Hezbollah had been disarmed, calling a cease-fire “a catalyst” toward disarming Hezbollah.
Nasrallah said he would support a peace agreement providing it met Hezbollah’s conditions. Hezbollah has demanded that Israel release prisoners it is holding in return for the two captured Israeli soldiers.Most. Cunning. Military. Strategy. Ever.
Reject enemies demands, launch aerial campaign that undermines the legitimate government, strengthens the enemy (they go door to door fixing peoples homes you know) and loses you political support, engage in limited infantry engagements with an understrength adversary which you lose, withdraw from the towns you previously said you captured, have no military cards to bring to the negotiating table when you seek negotiation for a ceasefire that meets your enemies demands.Most. Cunning. Military. Strategy. Ever.
Man when they spring that trap everyone is just going to shit themselves with suprise.What was the topic here again ? Oh yeah… how stupid Fisk was for *contemplating the possibility* of a theoretic loss in what is now looking more like a probable all purposes defeat. Well you can certainly pick em Tim.
I take it we are done here.
- So does that mean you’ll take your bat and ball and go home tank?Posted by The_Wizard_of_WOZ on 2006 07 31 at 01:12 PM • permalink
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