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Last updated on August 5th, 2017 at 04:15 pm
Former warmenist Dr. David Evans now bets against carbon emissions being the main cause of global warming. The amount at stake: $6000.
UPDATE. Speaking of gambling, Media Watch recently asked:
What’s the bet this photo will get a run again…
The BBC obliges.
- #7, because lots of money is involved? :).
ah yes, DuPont and CFC’s. I had read that their patent was to expire and therefore the refrigerant could be manufactured by anybody.
It was right about *then* they “they” discovered that CFC was bad for the ozone thingy, so it was banned. But never fear, DuPont came up a new refrigerant for your beer fridge!
- #6 & #7
That’s right. CFCs were banned, so the problem was fixed.The reality that the hole has continued to grow and recede in line with the antartic seasons, and varies in size from year to year is not relevant. la la la
Obviously, to fix AGW, all we need to do is set up something like massive bureacracies to manage emissions trading, and AGW will go away too.
- O/T – the SMH’s men of no appearance have returned and car jacked some woman in Sydney. Luckily the SMH has helpfully pointed out that one of the men might be wearing a dark beanie.
- DDT was the first major triumph by the environazi’s. As a result, millions of people, particularly in Africa are suffering because of mosquito born diseases. DDT was cheap AND effective.
Brent Spar is a lesson that we should take on board about the greens and their lies.
- Gore turned on his global warming mentor. (In a particularly sleazy way.)Posted by andycanuck on 2007 05 01 at 01:10 AM • permalink
- David Evans is a reckless punter. In his reasoning for taking this bet he explains why he is now skeptical of CO2 being the cause of global warming. He then bets against something different altogether. He has bet against global temperatures rising, for any reason, by certain amounts over the next 30 years. He has bet his $6,000 against Schmidt’s $9,000 at average odds of 6 to 4. This is way under the odds considering the myriad possibilities, natural or otherwise.
A fool and his money…
Posted by under the whip on 2007 05 01 at 01:19 AM • permalink
- A fool and his money…
Please disregard that line. This man is clearly not a fool. I just think he should have bet against warming being human induced in general and caused by CO2 in particular. Given the right terms this would attract me to bet.
Posted by under the whip on 2007 05 01 at 01:45 AM • permalink
Now that man-made climate change is established beyond reasonable doubt and further climate change is inevitable, it is even more important to improve our climate predictions to provide the best possible information to planners and more widely.
The BBC also publish this expert’s opinion, so why are we not surprised they publish that photo with their global scaremongering articles?
ps I like that “beyond reasonable doubt”, like it is a criminal trial verdict, meaning those on the wrong end are equated as criminals for denying it.
The religion will soon have its star chambers and trials.
Offender 1 – AB
Offender 2 – TBand so on …
I agree climate change is inevitable. When has the climate never changed?
- Mars is going out of its way to prove that globular heating is a solar issue, but it is still humanity’s fault.
You see, it’s because we dont all wear umbrella hats with mirror finish to bounce the offending rays back out into space where they belong!
- Evans may collect his money sooner than he thinks. An amateur .Australian Weather Analyst has clearly shown that for pretty much all the sites he has looked at across Australia, the observed warming is occuring exclusively in the day time, which precludes an increase greenhouse effect cause which would operate throughout the 24 hours.
The warming must be caused by increased sunlight reaching the earth’s surface and clouds and atmospheric particulates are pretty much the only possible causes (bar increased solar activity).
A scientific theory cannot be proved, it can only be disproved. This would seem to be the smoking gun that disproves the AGW GHG theory.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out
- #6 Actually, it’s still there, despite the ban.
I think we don’t hear any more about it as it turned out to be just natural fluctuations.
Posted by Wimpy Canadian on 2007 05 01 at 08:15 AM • permalink
- #20 Grimmy, they will also keep out the alien mind-reading rays.Posted by Wimpy Canadian on 2007 05 01 at 08:20 AM • permalink
- #23 I’ll raise your bet with a litre of gasoline.Posted by Wimpy Canadian on 2007 05 01 at 08:22 AM • permalink
- #28: T-Bob – This is your lucky day! The Paradoxical and Anomalous Credit Organization (Cayman Islands) will be glad to convert your carbon credits for you. There are two options. (1) You can exchange your credits for old Mexican pesos at the rate of 1:1. Although not, er, possessing any actual purchasing power, the old pesos – in mint, uncirculated condition – make an exciting and eclectic wall paper for your den or living room. Plus, if you don’t burn them (which is what the Mexican Government does), you can flip the pesos for fractional shares of Perfectly Authentic Carbon Credits at a low, low discount. (2) You can also choose to exchange your carbon credits for Guatemalan mortgage-backed securities futures (denominated in Guatemalan Quetzales). These are freely convertible into cash (or will be, as soon as we receive a license to establish an exchange for them, which could happen any day now).
Remember the motto of the Paco Financial Group: We treat your money like it was our own!
- Ice loss, eh? Then how do they explain this, which is supposed to be the worst ice pack seen in twenty years?
- Betting on gerbil warmening? Ender will be ecstatic. Or would that be disappointed, given that Dr. Evans is betting against Ender’s favorite cause of the latest impending doom for humanity?Posted by The_Real_JeffS on 2007 05 01 at 09:36 AM • permalink
- I do hope the goebbels whortening crowd goes after Hugo Chavez next. He’s planning a big increase in oil production.
I won’t, however, hold my breath on it.
- I emailed brian to express my interest in a 5-10 thousand dollar bet for a shorter time frame. Coveats being that I’d like to look into markets (and the historical data and models to get a better gage of the risks) and see if I could be better odds (there are a lot of AGW nuts that it’ll make bets beyond all reason). Also need more defined terms.
A series of one year bets over several years would be nice too. Ten or 20 years is a long wait any action. They could become incrementally larger.
I should do some research.
The integrity of the scientific community will win out in the end, following the evidence wherever it leads.
Will it? I’m not so sure about that. Scientific integrity presently is very much lacking. When can I expect to see the scientific community come to its collective senses? When the grant money runs out??
Posted by Kyda Sylvester on 2007 05 01 at 12:43 PM • permalink
- #1 Nicely done, Ric!Posted by Mr. Bingley on 2007 05 01 at 01:47 PM • permalink
- #42 egg_: If you keep adding warmening to the ice hole, you will eventually get one that is 6 feet wide. The question then becomes,
Q. What do you do with a 6-foot ice hole??
A. You give him a computer, a projector, and some hinky slides and he presents a PowerPoint Presentation on how we’re all going to die of Gorbal Warmening!!
Posted by JorgXMcKie on 2007 05 01 at 02:27 PM • permalink
- The wind whistled through the cracks of the Lucky Lady Saloon, gently moving the swinging doors to and fro, and causing the coal-oil lamp over the card table to twist lightly at the end of its cord, winding and unwinding, creating a room full of moving shadows, though the poker players sat stock still. They’d all drawn cards – except for the Dude, who stood pat – and were ruminating over the fickleness of fate.
Texas Bob was seated with his back to the bar. He had completed the trail drive to Abilene, where he had sold a herd of organically-fed steers for a good price, and was wearing a brand new, black broadcloth suit, and a stiff-brimmed black hat to match. The turquoise fob on his western tie rode up and down on his Adam’s apple as he downed another glass of rye. He swept a wary eye over the pile of chips in the center of the table. “Damn, boys, if I hadn’t-a dealt myself this hand, I swear I’d like to shoot the dealer. The pot’s too rich for me. I’m out.”
Andy Canuck, decked out in a red plaid lumberjack’s shirt and a beaver hat, was hunched over the table. “Sacre bleu! You zink you haff it bad, mon ami? I haff more cards than chips, and they are worth even less. Merde! I withdraw.”
The Paco Kid sat low in his chair, his long legs stretched in front of him, his battered hat pulled down over piercing blue eyes that gleamed even in the deepest shadow, a smile playing perpetually about the corners of his mouth. He looked over a modest pile of chips at the pot, and back at his cards again. “I’m in for three hundred carbon-credits.” He nudged a stack of green chips toward the pot. “Your play, Dude.”
The Dude was a large man, running to fat, dressed in a frock coat, rose-silk vest and plug hat. He was a climate-fiddler, an off-set drummer – in short, a snake-oil salesman who’d practically coined money selling his carbon offsets to nervous nellies worried about the drought. It was noised about that he had been a mover and shaker back east, might even have grabbed the brass ring of the presidency if it hadn’t been for some dirty pool played by the Supreme Court. ‘Course, nobody believed that. But he was a big talker with a fine line of gab, no question about it, and he carried himself with the easy assurance of a fox among the chickens.
He shoved his plug hat back on his head, and took another sip of herbal tea. “You drew three cards, isn’t that right Kid?”
The Paco Kid smiled amiably. “That’s right, Dude. Three cards. One for each of your chins. Seemed lucky, somehow.”
The Dude colored, slightly, but forced a smile that looked like the rictus on a horse that had died from poisoned well water. “Well, as you’ll recall, Kid, I didn’t draw any. That would be one for each of your brains. Tell you what. How much you got left?”
The Paco Kid checked his stake. “About two hundred.”
“All right. I’ll see your three hundred carbon credits, and raise you two hundred.” The Dude moved his whole poke to the middle of the table.
The Paco Kid frowned. Texas Bob whistled, and Andy uttered a soft “Nom de dieu!”
“Ok, Dude, I’m in. What do you have?”
The Dude fanned his cards and spread them on the table with a look of malignant triumph. “Full house, Kid! Three windmills over two solar panels.” He extended his arms to rake in the pot when the Kid sat up abruptly and laid his cards down. “Awful sorry, Dude. Four sunspots.”
The Dude subsided slowly into his chair, giving the Kid a hard stare. He took his hat off, and made to wipe off the inside with his handkerchief, but suddenly there was a derringer in his hand, pointed straight at the Kid’s heart. “I worked hard for that money, Kid, and I don’t aim to be cheated out of it. I don’t care if you had four sunspots, or a cosmic-ray flush; there’s no way you beat me honestly.”
The Paco Kid gave the Dude a wide smile. “Well, now, this may be an inconvenient truth, Dude, but in the first place, you can’t just dismiss sunspots and cosmic rays because you ain’t holdin’ any, and in the second place, Texas Bob dealt the cards, and he’s as straight a shooter as you’ll find in these parts, and in the third place, I filled my hand with a .45 before you laid down your cards.” He thumped the table from underneath with the barrel of his revolver. “So, unless you’re planning on tryin’ out for the Vienna Boy’s Choir, you’d better light outta this territory, pronto.”
The Dude rose slowly and glared at his nemesis. “Your life hangs in the balance, Kid. I’ll be weighin’ in again, some day.” Then he lumbered off into the night.
Texas Bob grinned. “Yeah. Weighin’ in at about three hundred pounds, at this rate.”
The Paco Kid smiled, and shouted at the barkeep. “Drinks on the house, Billy!”
- So Brian Schmidt finally found somebody to take on one of his silly and, as under the whip points out in #16, (presumably intentionally) misdirected bets. As much as I’m glad that Dr. Evans is capable of evaluating new evidence objectively, he has fallen for some random environut’s know-nothing posturing here.
The cause of global warming is an issue that falls into the realm of science, because it is falsifiable. No amount of human posturing will affect what the cause is. The cause just physically is there, and after sufficient research and time we will know what it is. Looking back in another 40 years, we will almost certainly know the answer and Brian and I will be in agreement on the issue.
Don’t bet on that, Doc.
- “UPDATE. Speaking of gambling, Media Watch recently asked:
What’s the bet this photo will get a run again…
The BBC obliges.”
And not just the BBC!
It was in yesterday’s le Figaro from Paris.
Posted by JJM Ballantyne on 2007 05 01 at 04:57 PM • permalink
- “Note that from 1935-1945, arctic temperatures were much higher than today, and dropped from that peak until about 1960. This is why all of the scare stories on the arctic including last year’s much heralded “Arctic Climate Impact Assessment” (ACIA) start their temperature records in 1960—it makes the current situation look catastrophic. Yes, things have gotten warmer since 1960 … but what the fearful scientists somehow forget to tell you is that temperatures were even warmer before that.
You want radical change, radical warming? From 1920 to 1940, the Arctic temps skyrocketed, warming by +/- 4°C in two decades … about twice as much as the current rise since 1960, and in less time, and all without the benefit of CO2 increase. If Greenpeace had been around then, they’d have had to blame it on … heck, I don’t know what they’d blame it on, but they’d be sure it’s the fault of humans.”
- #45 Texas Bob and everyone, there is a BBCWATCH web site that is very well worth the time to explore. Sorry, don’t have the link at the moment, but googogloogy diddly neighbourlyPosted by Wimpy Canadian on 2007 05 01 at 07:32 PM • permalink
- Nice one Paco. This should be on TVPosted by Wimpy Canadian on 2007 05 01 at 07:40 PM • permalink
- Cid, I’m off to a good start, I understood you the first time. Didn’t even notice the ‘it’. Read right through ‘it’. Should have no problem with the pdf.
‘course, don’t know if the others can say the same of me. I pretty much gave up on even trying to correct my typos or grammatical breakdowns. They’re just part of who I am. Don’t even notice ‘em. Skip words, go back to put ‘em in, and put’em in the wrong places!
- #55, Paco,
You have been sorely missed around here! I’ve been a bit of a drive-by myself, due to things I won’t bore everyone with.
I hope you won’t think I’m too nosy, but how is Paco, Jr. doing?
Love the story, even if Habib does accuse you of being a little Brokeback Mountainy. Course, that’s Habib. I defended you vigorously, reminding him of what a manly man of the macho variety you are.
Welcome back to the pub, Bub.
- #55 Ah, it’s good to have you back, Paco.
Elizabeth
Imperial KeeperPosted by Elizabeth Imperial Keeper on 2007 05 02 at 10:53 AM • permalink
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With apologies to Neil Diamond and his fans everywhere…
Gray winter’s day
With the new-falling sleet
And the ice on the street turns to glass
A G touches down
And it taxiis ‘round
Pushin’ out all that good turbine gas
Find the meeting hall
C-note ticket, please
And the Powerpoint tellin’ you and me
It’s Al, Brother Al, say
Brother Al’s Travelin’ Globe-Warmin’ Show
The newsies’ll see us so load up the Prius
And ev’ryone goes
‘Cause everyone knows
Brother Al’s shows
(Hallelujah)
(Halle Hallelujah)
Gaians,
You’ve got a checkbook and a credit card.
And when the Escalade needs gas or the bodyguards need breakfast
You whip out the credit card, ‘cause that’s what it’s there for.
And when your heart is troubled over your carbon footprint
Why, you send me a check and I’ll plant a tree for you
‘Cause that’s what I’m here for.
Take your pen in hand
Send some funds my way
We can save the world
Bring a better day
Halle (Halle) Halle (Halle)
Halle (Halle) Halle (Halle)
It’s Al, Brother Al, say
Brother Al’s Travelin’ Globe-Warmin’ Show
Yes, say Al, Brother Al, say
Brother Al’s Travelin’ Globe-Warmin’ show
The newsies’ll see us so load up the Prius
And ev’ryone goes…
Regards,
Ric