SLOWBAL WARMING

The cutest thing about this week’s no warming news is how flight-delayed accurate it claims to be:

The Earth’s temperature may stay roughly the same for a decade, as natural climate cycles enter a cooling phase, scientists have predicted.

A new computer model developed by German researchers, reported in the journal Nature, suggests the cooling will counter greenhouse warming.

However, temperatures will again be rising quickly by about 2020, they say.

The same people who only now predict a twelve-year cooling still expect to be taken seriously about eventual massive warming. They’re making this up as they go along. And it’s your fault for believing previous warming threats:

The projection does not come as a surprise to climate scientists, though it may to a public that has perhaps become used to the idea that the rapid temperature rises seen through the 1990s are a permanent phenomenon.

From whom might the public have gotten that crazy idea?

(Via ThinAndBritish)

Posted by Tim B. on 05/02/2008 at 02:31 PM
    1. If global warming is going to cause species to become extinct, why is the population of weasels growing exponentially?

      Posted by Dave S. on 2008 05 02 at 03:32 PM • permalink

 

    1. So… Maybe we have time to rethink the whole ethanol thing now, right? And Kyoto will expire before warming resumes anyway so we don’t have to sign that either, right?

      Wait, wait. How silly of me. Assuming that either of those things actually were addressing the phenomenon known as ‘Climate Change’ is naive.

      Posted by brett_l on 2008 05 02 at 03:43 PM • permalink

 

    1. Look, this global warming forecasting is hard.  It’s imprecise.  It’s a constantly changing thing.  Who knows what the actual facts are.

      But that doesn’t mean the West can’t close down all manufacturing, switch to windmill power (circa 1650 Holland), and transfer 50% of GNP to the Chinese.  We have to do something damn it!

      Posted by wronwright on 2008 05 02 at 03:53 PM • permalink

 

    1. We must do something about Global Stasis before it’s too late.  The only question is do we want the earth to be cooler or hotter than it is now?  Discuss.

      Posted by Bill Ramey on 2008 05 02 at 04:05 PM • permalink

 

    1. The proper headline would be:

      “Intellectually Bankrupt Warmenistas Call for Time Out”

      Climo-tards: They let no logic get in the way of their belief system.  Gotta love ‘em.

      Posted by Hucbald on 2008 05 02 at 04:08 PM • permalink

 

    1. The only question is do we want the earth to be cooler or hotter than it is now?  Discuss.

      Warmer! No, wait! Cooler!  Unhhh, PASS!

      Posted by Merlin on 2008 05 02 at 04:17 PM • permalink

 

    1. So, there would be global warming except for the natural cycles of climate change which apparently prevent it?
      Haven’t we been saying this all along?
      I can’t wait for the eco-fascists’ next hilarious fake crisis.

      Posted by Latino on 2008 05 02 at 04:18 PM • permalink

 

    1. The boffins have a new computer model?  That’s what this is all about?

      I’m supportive of computer modeling technology as any modern engineer, but whenever I hear about another climate related computer model, I wonder if “modern” “climate” “researchers” aren’t turning into a bunch of alchemists.

      Posted by The_Real_JeffS on 2008 05 02 at 04:40 PM • permalink

 

    1. Guess I’ll have to break out the old down-filled parka since “we’re all going to die in the global ice age”…again. Aahhh, the ‘70s.

      Posted by Deborah Leigh on 2008 05 02 at 05:03 PM • permalink

 

    1. Now, of course if a natural variation can depress the global temperature (thus hiding global warming) then maybe recent temperatures were elevated by same natural variation.

      Which, of course implodes the global warming argument.

      What is really interesting is to see how such “August” organizations as The New Sensationalist are rushing out to explain that these after-the-fact predictions of cooling demonstrate how warming is true.

      Or some such. See junkscience.com for a good display of these idiots today.

      Frankly I’m lost by their specious argumentations – I laugh at their preposterous logical contortions, I pee in their general direction.

      Posted by Wimpy Canadian on 2008 05 02 at 05:30 PM • permalink

 

    1. I like this bit from New Sensationalist:

      “POLITICIANS seem to think that the science is a done deal,” says Tim Palmer ….

      Now why do they think that, matey? Possibly because the likes of you and other “climate scientists” have been running around shouting it out from the roof-tops?

      Palmer is a leading climate modeller at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, UK, … But he and his fellow climate scientists are acutely aware that the IPCC’s predictions of how the global change will affect local climates are little more than guesswork. They fear that if the IPCC’s predictions turn out to be wrong, it will provoke a crisis in confidence that undermines the whole climate change debate.

      OMIGOD, we’d be out of a job!!!!

      That last sentance demands more parsing:

      if the IPCC’s predictions turn out to be wrong, IF? Surely not!

      it will provoke a crisis in confidence They’ll stop believing us!

      that undermines the whole climate change debate racket No more funding!

      Posted by Wimpy Canadian on 2008 05 02 at 05:45 PM • permalink

 

    1. It’s a melodramatic sign-off, like in Inspector Gadget:
      “We’ll get you next time, warming sceptics, Next Time!”

      Posted by blogstrop on 2008 05 02 at 05:48 PM • permalink

 

    1. It’s not warming.
      Not right now.
      Not for the next, oh, 10-15 years.
      But you mark my words, it’s gonna.
      It’s gonna get so warm.
      Sooooo warm.
      Ice will melt.
      Seas will rise.
      Earth will quake.
      Winds will blow.
      Rain will fall.
      Everything will die.Word!

      Posted by kae on 2008 05 02 at 05:58 PM • permalink

 

    1. #13 & 3
      And even if it isn’t
      Just in case
      We should DO SOMETHING.

      Posted by kae on 2008 05 02 at 05:59 PM • permalink

 

    1. From whom might the public have gotten that crazy idea?

      Anyone here want to raise your hand?

      Posted by rinardman on 2008 05 02 at 06:06 PM • permalink

 

    1. The whole ‘natural climate cycle’ meme is a smokescreen for the real issue – No sunspots.

      It is a matter of historical record that when sunspots dissapear, the Earth’s climate gets a lot colder.

      If cycle 24 sunspots don’t ramp up pretty soon, it’s Little Ice Age here we come.

      Posted by phil_b on 2008 05 02 at 06:09 PM • permalink

 

    1. If cycle 24 sunspots don’t ramp up pretty soon, it’s Little Ice Age here we come.

      Could we fire something into the sun, to wake it up?

      Something massive, like the algore?

      Posted by rinardman on 2008 05 02 at 06:29 PM • permalink

 

    1. Earth’s avg temp correlates to the sun’s activity. This activity cycles regularly – as measured by sunspots – on a smaller 11-year cycle w/in a larger 200year one (more or less; I’m rounding off here).

      By declaring a decade-long hiatus in global warming, the warmenista are thereby setting themselves up in sync with the only serious predictor available.

      Beware, cuz if things really do warm up in another 10 years – due to the sun’s predictable activity – they will then claim their theory to be correct, and many will believe it.

      Posted by localharbor on 2008 05 02 at 06:36 PM • permalink

 

    1. From whom might the public have gotten that crazy idea?

      From the Anti-Denialist Robyn Williams, the ABC’s Guardian of scientific truth, and predictor of an It’s a possible 100 metre sea rise?

      Posted by Barrie on 2008 05 02 at 07:41 PM • permalink

 

    1. The coldening warnings by Phil Chapman in The Australian (23 Apr 08) are very convincing but universally ignored by the warmenista.

      This spaceweather.com link in the first paragraph of Phil’s article takes you to an interesting site where you can get first news of the long-awaited Cycle 24. As of today, there is not a single sunspot showing and no sign of the coming yet.

      Phil is Australia’s first (only?) NASA astronaut. More importantly, he is a geophysicist and astronautical engineer so probably knows a bit more about the planet, atmosphere and space than does the likes of Robyn Williams and Flummery.
      The only thing that Phil has going against his credibility is that he is living in San Francisco.
      (Perhaps he is there to make scientific observations of, ahem, anomalies?)

      Posted by Skeeter on 2008 05 02 at 08:08 PM • permalink

 

    1. What you’re seeing is an epicycle.

      The diagram illustrates how Ptolemaic global warming works.

      Posted by rhhardin on 2008 05 02 at 08:14 PM • permalink

 

    1. Ha ha, won’t the doomsayers of global warming/cooling/possibly no change be singing out their other end when the world ends in 2012!

      Suckers!

      Posted by RebeccaH on 2008 05 02 at 08:21 PM • permalink

 

    1. More on this at http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/05/02/a_tale_of_two_thermometers/

      Posted by John A on 2008 05 02 at 08:23 PM • permalink

 

    1. OO-er!

      A computer model to explain why all their previous computer models were wrong!

      Talk about adjusting the effing models to suit the data.

      Have these cretins never heard of Rhodes Fairbridge and the solar inertial motion hypothesis? Or the work of Huang and North?

      Idiots!

      MarkL
      Canberra

      Posted by MarkL on 2008 05 02 at 08:34 PM • permalink

 

    1. Yes funny how this cooling hasn’t been predicted until we are actually in it. Like economic models that are wonderful predictors as long as variables are increasing in a roughly linear fashion.

      Posted by Francis H on 2008 05 02 at 08:53 PM • permalink

 

    1. Ha ha, won’t the doomsayers of global warming/cooling/possibly no change be singing out their other end when the world ends in 2012!

      If you can’t trust a Mayan, who can you trust?

      Posted by Merlin on 2008 05 02 at 09:06 PM • permalink

 

    1. Yes funny how this cooling hasn’t been predicted until we are actually in it.

      Just true to form. I don’t think most of the warming was “predicted” before 1998 either.

      Posted by PW on 2008 05 02 at 09:21 PM • permalink

 

    1. PW I think you’re right. The recent history of climatology seems to be to see a trend, come up with some ex-post explanation and then repeat at the next turning point.

      Posted by Francis H on 2008 05 02 at 09:30 PM • permalink

 

    1. Look, let’s compromise.

      Let’s just say that AGW does exist, and thanks to it, we’ve avoided truly catastrophic climate change by thwarting a new ice-age.

      There, now everyone’s happy.

      Posted by Brian on 2008 05 02 at 09:53 PM • permalink

 

    1. #26
      But aren’t they all extinct.
      They Mayans I mean.Wonder if their tribe name was Flannery?

      Posted by kae on 2008 05 02 at 10:00 PM • permalink

 

    1. #30

      Heh. No, kae, the Mayans are most definitely not extinct… and at least half of them have moved to Southern California.

      Posted by Spiny Norman on 2008 05 02 at 10:35 PM • permalink

 

    1. #31
      Oh, Spiny, Mayans are like polar bears!Going extinct.

      Going.

      Going.

      Going.

      Going.

      Still going….

      Posted by kae on 2008 05 02 at 10:39 PM • permalink

 

    1. First I say warmer then I say cooler, warmer, cooler, lets call the whole thing off.

      Posted by stackja1945 on 2008 05 02 at 11:19 PM • permalink

 

    1. All I know is that here in Minnesota, we are expecting snow tomorrow. On May 3rd! May fraking 3rd!!!!

      Posted by debi L. on 2008 05 02 at 11:21 PM • permalink

 

    1. #10 Wimpy

      Now, of course if a natural variation can depress the global temperature (thus hiding global warming) then maybe recent temperatures were elevated by same natural variation.

      Which, of course implodes the global warming argument.

      What is really interesting is to see how such “August” organizations as The New Sensationalist are rushing out to explain that these after-the-fact predictions of cooling demonstrate how warming is true.

      Frankly I’m lost by their specious argumentations – I laugh at their preposterous logical contortions, I pee in their general direction.

      So do I.  However last week I was at a meeting with one large multinational consulting firm at which we were given their responsible eco-corporate citizen show.  All pretty stuff but behind that is the recognition that there is a huge advisory business out there as more and more controls and regulations are introduced.  And they are determined to get as much of their share of that business as they can and no doubt their competitors are doing the same.  In fact one only has to look at the names on the latest conference flyer (Keywords: Trading, CO2, Carbon Abatement, Emissions, Monitoring, Climate, Greenhouse) to see who the rent seekers are.

      So there are many vested interests in keeping the new gravy train on the rails and meanwhile beavering away in Canberra is a bunch of bureaucrats working on an Emissions Trading Scheme and they have an implementation timetable.  If our new government is smart and wanted a semblance of a chance of holding on to office for more than one term, they could usefully delay implementation and scrap the whole thing when the world gets colder before any damage is done.  But have a look at the timetable!

      And if the alcopops charade is anything to go by I don’t think they’ll be that savvy.  So it’s hang on to your hat when the Australian economy and not the gravy train runs off the rails.

      Posted by Wand on 2008 05 03 at 01:34 AM • permalink

 

    1. The Earth’s temperature may stay roughly the same for a decade, as natural climate cycles enter a cooling phase, scientists have predicted. However, temperatures will again be rising quickly by about 2020, they say.

      Translation: Fuck, it’s getting cooler. This story should buy us at least 12 years before people start asking awkward questions.”

      Posted by Contrail on 2008 05 03 at 02:46 AM • permalink

 

    1. 15, ‘……our new government……could usefully delay implementation and scrap the whole thing when the world gets colder before any damage is done’
      No no, we must take full advantage of this respite in AGW and urgently implement the mitigation measures whatever the cost.
      Think of your children and children’s children.

      Posted by chrisgo on 2008 05 03 at 02:48 AM • permalink

 

    1. #24; Idiots!

      Posted by dean martin on 2008 05 03 at 07:52 AM • permalink

 

    1. I wonder what the bipolar bears will make of these new developments.

      Posted by PW on 2008 05 03 at 08:59 AM • permalink

 

  1. #20 Skeeter,

    Phil Chapman was the first Aussie astronaut but he certainly wasn’t the last. Both Andy Thomas and Paul Scully-Power are Australians. Andy Thomas is still on the active list.

    Posted by Ozwitch on 2008 05 03 at 10:05 PM • permalink