PREDICTIONIST CLAIMS ACCURACY

A column by Tim Flannery in the London Times appears below this headline:

Ten predictions about climate change that have come true

All are so vague and non-proveable (“species would start going extinct”) they might have been written by a carnival psychic. As for Flannery’s more precise predictions, check this, made in June 2005:

The ongoing drought could leave Sydney’s dams dry in just two years.

Well, Flannery’s wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, and wrong. Oh, last month he also predicted:

Brisbane and Adelaide – home to a combined total of three million people – could run out of water by year’s end.

Again, Flannery is wrong. Yet he’s sticking to his guns. And from the Times piece linked above, Flannery’s seventh prediction about climate change he claims has come true: “That Australia would start drying out.”

Wrong.

(Via Graham B., Murph, and Andrew R.)

Posted by Tim B. on 06/26/2007 at 11:44 AM
    1. Flannery’s seventh prediction

      Would that be like Thomas Merton’s seven mountains?

      Posted by RebeccaH on 2007 06 26 at 11:56 AM • permalink

 

    1. Prediction 5: hurricanes increasing in intensity?

      I’d postulate that areas like Florida which were somewhat underpopulated a century ago now have more people, more development, and more improvements that are impacted by hurricanes.

      Same wind and rain; just more than old palm fronds and sand being blown around.

      Posted by JDB on 2007 06 26 at 12:04 PM • permalink

 

    1. More disastrous global warming is about to hit Victoria and NSW. Drought-busting floods are the mid-year Christmas gift.

      Posted by mareeS on 2007 06 26 at 12:06 PM • permalink

 

    1. I see that only a few of Flannery’s asseverations are backed by even an attempt at support from sources other than his own feverish brain. Shouldn’t the top of the page read “Advertisement”?

      Posted by paco on 2007 06 26 at 12:07 PM • permalink

 

    1. “Australia – where the drying trend is already precipitating a new wave of declines and extinctions.” How many species in a “wave”?

      Posted by paco on 2007 06 26 at 12:09 PM • permalink

 

    1. “The Antactic (sic) Peninsula” – which is . . . where, exactly?

      Posted by paco on 2007 06 26 at 12:13 PM • permalink

 

    1. Prediction #1 in the article: Ah! Svante Arrhenius, ol’ Father Greenhouse, himself. But what’s this?!? According to the article cited, Arrhenius thought that global warming was a good thing. But we know better, now, don’t we Flummery!

      Posted by paco on 2007 06 26 at 12:25 PM • permalink

 

    1. So glad I didn’t write “Antactic,” paco. People can be really mean about medical conditions. My uncle died of antactica when his extremises froze. His son – my cousin – suffers from antacticulosus, a very rare coldening disease becomeng more prevalent now. My own sister has an antactical ear problem.

      Can Flannery help”?

      Posted by mareeS on 2007 06 26 at 12:29 PM • permalink

 

    1. #8 MareeS: Global warming will solve all those problems. Well, except for your uncle’s. That sound pretty final.

      Posted by paco on 2007 06 26 at 12:32 PM • permalink

 

    1. I was particularly interested in 3)Rising sea levels due to the fact that the natural settling of minimal Pacific atolls (isn’t that how they become atolls?) is being blamed on the NKS (Non-Kyoto Signers).  Some think I should pay for that too.

      However, when I go to study up on it, all I get is “Site is currently unavailable. Please come back later”.  This excuse for non-disclosure may just be the modern version of “The last refuge of scoundrels”, a line I had thrown at me when I was a professional soldier.

      Posted by Winger on 2007 06 26 at 12:44 PM • permalink

 

    1. No, no, no no!

      Yer all wrong. Don’t y’all know that all warminista predictions are for 2075, even if they have been made for this year or the next? You cannot call them “wrong” until globAL GOREming has been demonstrated to occur. That will happen in 2075, although we all know it’s happening now, it’s a fact now, 99.99% of credible climatologist believe so and all skeptics are in the pockets of big oil.

      But if any of this year’s or the next few years’ predictions is right, then that proves GOREball Warmination is happening now, it’s a fact now,  99.99% of credible climatologist believe so and all skeptics are in the pockets of big oil.

      Tim, how can you, of all people, be so ignorant?

      Posted by ElectronPower on 2007 06 26 at 12:48 PM • permalink

 

    1. I’d postulate that areas like Florida which were somewhat underpopulated a century ago now have more people, more development, and more improvements that are impacted by hurricanes.

      Same wind and rain; just more than old palm fronds and sand being blown around.

      And people used to have the common sense to not build multi-million dollar mansions on the beach and extreme low-lying areas where they would all get blown/washed away and cry for the taxpayers/insurance companies (which in turn increase the premiums to people who chose non-floody areas to build their houses) to pick up the tab, too.

      Posted by SwampWoman on 2007 06 26 at 12:57 PM • permalink

 

    1. #10, Winger,

      What, we now have an acronym, NKS, specially for deniers? I must be sure to have it tattoed somewhere (probably on the old boots I’m throwing out tomorow).

      As to “the last refuge,” that was patriotism, and as a former soldier you can’t be counted as a scoundrel.

      Posted by mareeS on 2007 06 26 at 01:03 PM • permalink

 

    1. One hundred years ago, 100% of hurricanes made landfall. Today, less than 50% do.

      Decline in hurricane frequency? Nope.

      It’s an artifact of the increase in observational capabilities, not a change in the weather. A century ago, there were no satellites, no radar, nothing but eyeballs.

      Posted by mojo on 2007 06 26 at 01:06 PM • permalink

 

    1. I think all those Spanish galleon captains who went to the bottom of the Caribbean with their cargoes of New World gold and silver would tell you that there were plenty of hurricanes of great intensity four hundred years ago (before “global warming” destroyed life as we know it).  The sea floor is littered with the proof.

      Posted by kcom on 2007 06 26 at 01:16 PM • permalink

 

    1. Australia is drying out…

      I love a sunburnt country
      A land of sweeping plains
      Of rugged mountain ranges
      Of droughts, and flooding rains

      What was Dorothea Mackellar thinking when she wrote this? Australia back then was just one big expanse of misty green hills, all the way over to the West Coast.
      It’s a little known fact that the Great Sandy Desert was originally called the Great Sandy Rainforest. That was before Australia dried out.

      Posted by daddy dave on 2007 06 26 at 01:20 PM • permalink

 

    1. daddy dave. Australia is undrying now in a big way. We’ve been doing it in NSW for the past two weeks. Watch Victoria tomorrow

      Posted by mareeS on 2007 06 26 at 01:28 PM • permalink

 

    1. As richard mcenroe said about the Goracle, Flummery is yet another “bloviating mountebank”. All he needs is coattails and a black stovepipe hat.

      What a buffoon.

      Posted by Spiny Norman on 2007 06 26 at 01:29 PM • permalink

 

    1. Tell him to send that list to CentreBet and put his money where his mouth is. If he’s so certain of the outcomes, he can rejoice in fleecing skeptics of their hard-earned cash. I’ll bet 10 bucks he’s too gutless to put his own money down against his bullshit.

      Posted by CB on 2007 06 26 at 02:38 PM • permalink

 

    1. With his more precise predictions

      “South Australia is that we are at the end of the Murray River catchment, and our water can taste awful at times and can be rather poor quality,” he said.

      Apart from the author’s lousy syntax, that has been going on for the 50 odd years of my life and the reason I left looking for somewhere else to live. (I did try just drinking beer all the time, but …..)
      Now that I am in Victoria, he can send prediction 4 our way.

      Posted by Pa Feral on 2007 06 26 at 03:53 PM • permalink

 

    1. Global warming is real!  And I can prove it.  Here’s yet another ten predictions about climate change that have come true:

      – it will rain a lot.
      – places will be very hot.  Others quite cold.
      – polar bears will ofte be seen on icebergs.
      – snow will begin to melt in all but the coldest regions of Earth every single spring.
      – People will start to say ‘hot enough for ya?’ in the summertime.
      – Whales will sometimes beach themselves.
      – Paris Hilton will become famous… for being famous!
      – There will be occasional hurricanes, never once seen before global warming.
      – Weather will often suck.
      – Cats and dogs will sleep together, in the biblical sense!  (well, this one hasn’t happened yet… but soon I wager!)

      So give it up, deniers.  This list is undeniable!  Please people.  Stop using fossil fuels NOW or we’ll get another Paris Hilton!  It’s just not worth it.

      Posted by blogagog on 2007 06 26 at 04:21 PM • permalink

 

    1. Australian of the year? Chosen by a panel chaired by some swimming/surfer chick? Give us a break!

      Posted by Gravelly on 2007 06 26 at 04:50 PM • permalink

 

    1. I found this on the Conservative Grapevine.
      It’s about sea level rise.
      You know how Flannery just sort of pulled predictions out his ass? Well this oceanographer, Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner, the head of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics department at Stockholm University in Sweden, says that is exactly the same place that the IPCC got their ocean rising predictions. Out of their ass. More precisely they used one reading from a sea level measuring stick in Hong Kong to get a 2.3 mm rise per year. Every other measurement says there isn’t any sea level rise. Dr. Morner points out that if there were an appreciable ocean rise from polar melt then the water mass would be spun to the equator. This extra mass at the equator would slow the rotation rate of the planet and atomic clocks would have to be reset periodicly.
      Sea rise isn’t happening.
      You might remember Dr. Morner from the documentary, “Doomsday Called Off,” where he showed us all a tree that was growing right at sea level on the Maldives islands. This tree was famous from records dating back to when the island was a prison colony. When the prisoners had served their time and were leaving the island this tree was the last thing they saw, so it was known as the “freedom tree”. It had been noted from at least 1950.
      After Nils mentioned the tree in his writings you know what happened? I’ll let the Dr. tell the story;

There came an Australian sea-level team, which was for the IPCC and against me. Then the students pulled down the tree by hand! They destroyed the evidence. What kind of people are those? And we came to launch this film, “Doomsday Called Off,” right after, and the tree was still green. And I heard from the locals that they had seen the people who had pulled it down. So I put it up again, by hand, and made my TV program. I haven’t told anybody else, but this was the story.
They call themselves scientists, and they’re destroying evidence! A scientist should always be open for reinterpretation, but you can never destroy evidence. And they were being watched, thinking they were clever.

I wonder if any of you have an idea who the villians were that perpetraited this act?
Perhaps with Tim’s world wide staff of reporters you can solve this mystery?

Posted by papertiger on 2007 06 26 at 04:59 PM • permalink

 

    1. 1) That the Earth would warm as more CO2 was put into the atmosphere (Svante Arrhenius in 1893)
      okay… both have gone up… one point, Flanno.
      2) That we’d begin to see noticable changes to Earth’s climate by around 2000 (some IPCC scientists ).
      A little vague there, mate. Link just goes to IPCC homepage. zero points.
      3) That sea-level would start rising
      This is a list of things that have already come true, right? Sea level has risen by about 1 millimeter a year.
      Half a point (lose half a point for exaggeration through intentional vagueness, and for introducing minuscule, unimportant effects
      4) That Earth’s Ice would start melting rapidly (James Hanson)
      disputed
      5) that hurricanes would increase in intensity (this one goes back to Alfred Russel Wallace in 1900)
      Wrong.. you get minus one for being so utterly wrong.
      6) That species would start going extinct as a result of climate change.
      Species have gone extinct. Why? lots of reasons, but global warming is not one of them.Oh god this is tedious. and, AGH! I just noticed he has two more lists after this one. I leave the rest as an exercise for the reader.

      Posted by daddy dave on 2007 06 26 at 05:12 PM • permalink

 

    1. I have taken all your names down. Expect to see your fake names on the tube.

      Mr. Palmartist. (gosh, just can’t rush home soon enough)

      Wait, this isn’t the filthy, dirty bastard, compost Islamist thread….Ahemm, well got your names anyway.

      Posted by El Cid on 2007 06 26 at 05:17 PM • permalink

 

    1. I predict that all the rain yall are having will be followed by a strong growth of underbrush followed by a lot of intense fires. What you wanna bet my predictions will be more accurate than Flannel mans’? I also predict that the same cycle will repeat itself in the years to come. Hey, theres nothing to this stuff! Now, how about some of that global warming panic money that Gore and Flannery are raking in . Share the wealth man.

      Posted by greene on 2007 06 26 at 05:23 PM • permalink

 

    1. Tim Flannery = Witchdoctor*
      *not a qualified one, however.Add these to the list of signs:

      The sun will set.

      The sun will rise.

      Posted by kae on 2007 06 26 at 05:47 PM • permalink

 

    1. I think my home computer is on the fritz again. Arrgh!

      Posted by kae on 2007 06 26 at 05:47 PM • permalink

 

    1. kae

      I think my home computer is on the fritz again. Arrgh!

      Never heard of that brand.

      Get ya a new one lady. Have the damn job pay for it, ya prolly do a lot of their work at home, anyways.

      Posted by El Cid on 2007 06 26 at 05:58 PM • permalink

 

    1. It’ was a NEW $2.5k computer just over 18 months ago or so.
      I am told it’s a “software problem”. It’s hard for me to get support, too. I don’t live in the city.
      We’ll see when I go home tonight and try ALL the reset-the-router options.
      Bloody thing!
      I’ll DIE without my net connection… and I’ve just ordered Engin for cheap phone calls… Grr.

      Posted by kae on 2007 06 26 at 06:07 PM • permalink

 

    1. The one place in Australia that was close to running dry – the rural city of Goulburn – has seen one of the dams go from 12% to overflowing in one day.

      Al Gore must be in town today as the highway between Canberra and Cooma is covered in snow and this email just arrived in my inbox:

      Hi Craigo, this is your Thredbo Snow Report for Wednesday, 27 June 2007:

      Weather Top
      -3°C. 40cm of snow fell overnight and buried the mountain in white stuff, and the good news is…it’s still falling. There are some strong winds about the peaks, so make sure you rug up. Today’s top temp: -1°C.

      Weather Village
      +3°C. It’s a winter wonderland in the village with 20cm of fresh stuff falling overnight and moderate winds. Today’s top temp: +3°C.

      Road Conditions
      Chains required from Penderlea Gap to Thredbo

       

      Penderlea is around 25km down the hill and 300m lower elevation.  When chains are required from there you know it’s going to be a good day on the slopes.  I hope it stays good until Saturday.

      Posted by craigo on 2007 06 26 at 06:34 PM • permalink

 

    1. Unfortunately, this isn’t just publicity junkie Flannery at work. It is the norm in Climate Science to assert as fact, things for which you have no evidence.

      And on sea level. The Port of Singapore’s Hydrographer(sp?) says there has been no change in sea level since records began (by the British). It’s an out and out lie.

      Note, the mm/year increase in temperate regions is likely due to thermal expansion resulting from the warming after 1850. The oceans are a huge heat sink and a lag of a century is not surprising.

      The only one of Flannery’s statements that is true is CO2 causing acidification of the oceans, which has fuckall to do with global warming.

      Posted by phil_b on 2007 06 26 at 06:39 PM • permalink

 

    1. Apart from the unknown, unverifiable and just pain whacky, his predictions are even money bets aren’t they?
      The one thing I’d be prepared to bet against is that everything will remain the same.

      Posted by chrisgo on 2007 06 26 at 06:48 PM • permalink

 

    1. Can someone with more credibility than I inform the Times of Flannery’s several mistakes. Such comments coming from Australia may be published at least for their novelty.

      Is there any way his coming month’s itinerary can be made public so we can forewarn those he is visiting of his questionable gravitas. He seems to be sailing in calm seas.

      Posted by mehaul on 2007 06 26 at 07:17 PM • permalink

 

    1. Have we missed the fact that this article is in the Timesonline’s entertainment section?

      That’s where they put all their carninval psychics.

      Posted by anthony_r on 2007 06 26 at 07:23 PM • permalink

 

    1. #28 30
      Kae-Like you I live in a rural area and have had one problem after another? telstra satellite ? downloading Microsoft updates??? AFTER hitting links in some posts and You tube- tried to reinstall and screwedup. I had it reinstalled by local computershop and still had trouble after $130 down the drain. I then discovered this programme and thought I wouyld give it a go and it has restored my computer and it has never worked betterhttp://www.spotmau.com/
      I was very sceptical about on line purchasing but they send a CD-really great
      Cheers
      Minx

      Posted by Hillyminx on 2007 06 26 at 07:37 PM • permalink

 

    1. Just shows the folly of not reading the Bible and following the liberal green religion- It says quite clearly about not building ones house on sand.
      I wouln’t be surprised to see CAN CUN washed away one day after a less than great hliday there a few years back.

      Posted by Hillyminx on 2007 06 26 at 07:40 PM • permalink

 

    1. KAE

      read 36

      Posted by Hillyminx on 2007 06 26 at 07:43 PM • permalink

 

    1. Thanks Hillyminx
      A friend at work, a TRAINED IT person says he thinks it might be my Vista*…. I reformatted the @#$% thing only three weeks ago…
      I will try this!*the magical software problem…

      Posted by kae on 2007 06 26 at 07:55 PM • permalink

 

    1. #21 Blogagog:

      – Cats and dogs will sleep together, in the biblical sense!  (well, this one hasn’t happened yet… but soon I wager!)

      Hey, thanks for the reminder!  Time for me to go walk the cog and change the sand in the datbox.

      Posted by Mary in LA on 2007 06 26 at 07:57 PM • permalink

 

    1. I propose we plant Trent Lott at the tideline to measure sea level rises…

      Posted by richard mcenroe on 2007 06 26 at 08:16 PM • permalink

 

    1. Let’s suppose for a moment that anthropogenic global warming is not a complete load of cobblers driven by people with an ideological agenda and an insatiable appetite for taxpayer funded conferences in exotic places with open buffets and wild exploratory sex with naive and nubile young university research assistants.

      Go on, close your eyes for a moment and imagine. Look, it’s a theoretical exercise, just try, just this one time, damn you…

      Then the most important thing Flannery could possibly do to stop AGW is to use his high media profile to champion nuclear power. But he doesn’t.

      Why not? Because AGW is a complete load of cobblers driven by people with an ideological agenda and an insatiable appetite for taxpayer funded conferences in exotic places with open buffets and wild exploratory sex with naive and nubile young university research assistants.

      Posted by Margos Maid on 2007 06 26 at 08:19 PM • permalink

 

    1. #41: I second the motion. Call for a vote. All in favor? A chorus of “ayes!” All opposed? “No”! You don’t get a vote, Mr. Lott. The ayes are above the nose. Motion carried. Ok, boys, plant him!

      Posted by paco on 2007 06 26 at 08:28 PM • permalink

 

    1. “No’s”, rather. Heh.

      Posted by paco on 2007 06 26 at 08:29 PM • permalink

 

    1. Flannery Predicts Drought to Continue

      Posted by richard mcenroe on 2007 06 26 at 08:36 PM • permalink

 

    1. Hmmmm.

      Perhaps Flannery is hoping someone will leave the tap running?

      Seems a tough way to get rid of a couple billion liters of water, but anything is possible.

      Posted by memomachine on 2007 06 26 at 08:37 PM • permalink

 

    1. #35
      Have we missed the fact that this article is in the Timesonline’s entertainment section?
      That’s where they put all their carninval psychics.
      … and snakeoil salesmen.

      Per paco: global warming means never having to say you’re wrong.

      Roll up! Roll up!

      Posted by egg_ on 2007 06 26 at 08:40 PM • permalink

 

    1. Species will “Start going extinct”. Like, surely, you are either extinct or not?

      If one “starts going extinct” how long does the process take? Do you start with a population of one billion and wait until it goes extinct, eventually when the sun dies?

      Then haven’t all species started going extinct since they became destinct.

      Rather like “we start to die once we are bnorn”.

      Crap. BS. Garbaaaarrrrgggge.

      This bull-shitter, pseudo-intellectual, speaks volumes of caveates and meaninglessness; every statement has a get-out clause.

      Posted by Wimpy Canadian on 2007 06 26 at 08:56 PM • permalink

 

    1. I’ve FOUND IT!

      The Long-Lost Opening to PACO: THE MOVIE!

      Posted by richard mcenroe on 2007 06 26 at 09:28 PM • permalink

 

    1. Re species going extinct:

      A report here notes that 52 new species of plants and animals have been discovered over the last year in Borneo alone.

      A study part funded by capitalist bastards BHP Billiton recently found 24 new species in Suriname – the smallest sovereign state in South America.

      Need I go on?

      Against this tidal wave of discoveries, extinctions do occur but this one for example was the first aquatic mammal extinction since the 1950s – and while it happened, Greenpeace were spending millions poncing about the southern oceans trying to protect the rabbits of the ocean.

      Posted by Margos Maid on 2007 06 26 at 09:39 PM • permalink

 

    1. # 42

      an insatiable appetite for taxpayer funded conferences in exotic places with open buffets and wild exploratory sex with naive and nubile young university research assistants.

      Crikey. *Swallows and mops brow*
      This is the first time I have seriously considered a sudden “I’ve seen the light type conversion “….

      * Narrows Eyes at Margos Maid* and wonders whether she is a clandestine recruiter for Flannery as this is the single most convincing argument from that side to swap he has seen.

      Posted by Wacko on 2007 06 26 at 10:08 PM • permalink

 

    1. #51 – Behold, I have seen the light and it is a hot light, leading to cataclysmic climate events such as – rain and weather and other shit. Who gives a toss. Where’s the buffet and where’s my nubile research wench for “exploratory” sex???

      Posted by Infidel Tiger on 2007 06 26 at 10:17 PM • permalink

 

    1. #49: Bwahahahahahah!! L’d OL at that one, Richard!

      Posted by paco on 2007 06 26 at 11:17 PM • permalink

 

    1. #47 Egg: Closely alligned with that attitude is this one: Leftism means never having to say your sorry – except for your country.

      Posted by paco on 2007 06 26 at 11:34 PM • permalink

 

    1. Paco re country

      The leftards seek a kind of supranational world, where the united nations rules all. A world where your human rights will be guaranteed by libya and irene khan(‘t), your sustainable development by zimbabwe, your pay by the suharto family, your security by the central african republic** and so on.  So shut the cakehole and play what you’re dealt, pal, otherwise P.A.C.O. (People Against Countries Organisation) will be after your arse.

      Lovely rain down here in SE Oz. Caused no doubt by gw, as was the drought.

      ** Not sure here, might be burkina faso now, or even the central african empire as it was when boukassa owned it… no shit!!

      Cheers
      RodC

      Posted by Rod C on 2007 06 27 at 12:31 AM • permalink

 

    1. #56
      burkina faso is a different place.  Sorry my iggerance.Cheers
      RodC

      Posted by Rod C on 2007 06 27 at 12:36 AM • permalink

 

    1. That’s a lot of word counts, he might have made a mottsa of moula.

      Posted by 1.618 on 2007 06 27 at 01:28 AM • permalink

 

    1. #21 Blogagog

      – Cats and dogs will sleep together, in the biblical sense!  (well, this one hasn’t happened yet… but soon I wager!)

      Umm…

      Posted by flying pigs over mecca on 2007 06 27 at 02:38 AM • permalink

 

  1. Here in Goulburn, it has been raining almost continuously for about 3 weeks. We have almost forgotten what blue sky looks like.
    Meanwhile, our neighbours in Crookwell, which is about 1000 feet higher than us are getting snowed in.Can any AGW enthusiast tell me if Global Warming Theory (or whatever its called) predicted this? Alternatively, Did Al Gore visit without us knowing?

    Posted by DropDeadUgly on 2007 06 27 at 04:33 AM • permalink