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Cyclone Larry is headed for far north Queensland. Latest specifications:
Central Pressure : 935 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 20 kilometres (12 miles) of latitude 17.6 degrees south, longitude 149.7 degrees east; about 390 kilometres (235 miles) east of Innisfail
Recent Movement : West at 25 kilometres (15 miles) per hour
Destructive winds : out to 120 kilometres (72 miles) from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 240 kilometres (144 miles) per hour, intensifying
Larry was rated a category two cyclone 13 hours ago, was upgraded to category three about ten hours ago, and is now building towards category five:
Far north Queensland residents in cyclone Larry’s path have been urged to evacuate as authorities compare the violent storm to Hurricane Katrina which devastated United States gulf states last year ...
Disaster co-ordination centres were activated in Cairns and Townsville while the state government deployed response teams from Brisbane, in response to imminent destruction caused by gale force winds, torrential rain and flooding, he said.
“This is the most devastating cyclone that we could potentially see on the east coast of Queensland for decades,” [Counter Disaster and Rescue Services executive director Frank] Pagano told reporters in Brisbane. “There is going to be destruction - we are very certain this cyclone will not peter out.”
Anticipated time of arrival: 7.30am. Interesting detail from reader entropy: “As about 90 percent of bananas in Australia are immediately in its path, this particular fruit is about to get real expensive.”
UPDATE. Cyclone radar here. Slippery Pete reports the gathering of provisions; Frozenbird has been sent south; and Bree notes cyclone party preparations.
UPDATE II. Location as of 10pm (image updated):
Predicted course:
(Via Semaphore Junction)
UPDATE III. Queensland bloggers brace themselves:
* Tanya: “After the supermarket, I went to the bottle shop. Hey, if I’m housebound for the next day or two, I may as well have alcohol keep me company.”
* Stebo: “COME ON LARRY GIVE ME WHAT YOU’VE GOT.”
* Inky Fingers: “It’s just after 9-30pm here..and all is calm. No rain, no wind..no nothing. To anyone who has never experienced a cyclone, I’m sure they are questioning what all the fuss and panic is about.”
Another example of the absolutely lame, clueless, self-centered US media - I’ve heard absolutely nothing about this until this post. (Of course, I’m not glued to the Weather Channel, which probably is covering it.) They’re an absolute disgrace.
BTW, even though I got a science degree from college, I’ve never seen the word “hectopascals” until now.
Anyone know how to convert hectopascals to millibars? (It’s way to late to be looking it up - and yes, I’m lazy.)
Hope the people of Queensland pay more attention to the order to evacuate than New Orleans did.
Good luck, guys.
Posted by Barbara Skolaut on 2006 03 19 at 04:45 AM • permalinkFehh-
Larry’s nothing - Wait till Curly and Moe come join him.Posted by Lucky Nutsacks on 2006 03 19 at 04:51 AM • permalink#4 One hectopascal = one millibar.
How easy is that!
I notice the ABC has destructive winds of 280 “millimetres” an hour. Fools. I think most people will realise they’re our by a factor of ONE MILLION.
Stay safe North Queenslanders.
Posted by Ben Haslem on 2006 03 19 at 05:06 AM • permalinkOops, I meant “out” by a factor of one million.
Could someone tell news.com.au that this is a slightly more important news story than the result of elections in Australia’s two smallest States.
At least the ABC has it as lead story, undoubtedly in preparation for reports that had we signed Kyoto this would not have happened ... sigh.
Posted by Ben Haslem on 2006 03 19 at 05:11 AM • permalinkAmendment for the Mainstream Media Style Guide in relation to coverage of Hurricane Larry, post-landfall :
When Aboriginals gather food and water from half-destroyed supermarkets, they are LOOTING.
When white people do the same, they are LIBERATING.
—————————
Keep your heads down Queenslanders and God be with you.
Posted by LeftieLatteLover on 2006 03 19 at 05:13 AM • permalink#1, your comment re: Kyoto was an outrageous smear on the Left, the one-eyed blame-gaming should only begin minutes of the true scope of the disaster becoming known.
But Howard must be prepared to take a lot of heat for not having rushed through the necessary legislation to prevent the banana price protifteering we will see in the next few weeks.
Posted by LeftieLatteLover on 2006 03 19 at 05:51 AM • permalinkTully gets the highest rainfall in Australia. It has been running a big deficit to date this wet season. This is basically the end of the cyclone season, but it looks like there is another forming off towards New Caledonia, which might take a similar track.
The tully river flood plain will certainly be comprehensively flooded mostly sugar cane, and the luxury resorts of Dunk and Bedarra Islands, and Mission Beach are right in its path and vulnerable to a storm surge. Furhter north Innsifail is at the confluence of two rivers and will also be vulnerable. Unlike New Orleans, however, they are all above sea level.
Banana production is the big earner. Depending on he actual track of the cyclone, it could easily wipe out all the bananas due to the wind (if it goes a bit south some Innisfail bananas could be spared, if it goes a bit north some Tully bananas could be spared, if it goes in between the two towns….....). The banana industry is a big employer of local aborigines, many other locals and the backpackers who go to Far North Qld to visit the Great Barrier Reef, wild river rafting etc. Note also there will be a lot of coral damage.
Cyclones (hurricanes) are a bit like the opposite sex, unpredictable ... I’m not being sexist, this one is named after a bloke called Larry. My old man has been keeping me informed, he is from Ingham. It could turn south, north, or decide to shut down. There’s more than bananas there, also sugar cane and tourism. Unless you’re in the predicted path, there ain’t much we can do but watch like voyeurs.
The Cairns Harbour-Master ordered the evacuation of the Cairns City Marina late this afternoon, and all vessels at the marina have had to find their own “safe” anchorage in the Inlet.
The marina is fairly open, and obviously is not designed to withstand 2m storm surges.
I’m hoping for the best - I spend a lot of time in Cairns - but they breed them tough up there!
Entropy, excellent info you posted. Current tidal surge of two to three metres now being predicted. Anyone know how that compares to regular tropical storm surges for North Queenlsand?
Was in Cairns and Cooktown February, 2005, after much smaller hurricane and storms went through.
The locals were very casual about any hurricane threat, despite Cooktown having been virtually destroyed numerous times from 1890 to about 1940.
The hurricane in 2005 hit mostly unpopulated areas and there was much joking from the locals about the ‘nervous nellies’ who had stockpiled food and water in preparation for a disaster that didn’t come.
Hopefully the North Queenslanders have taken the Larry threat far more seriously.
That was a crap joke about banana price profiteering. We’d instead be looking at banana shortages. Current Sydney price is $1.50 to $1.99 per kilo.
There is virtually no international coverage of the incoming hurricane as of this moment, nine hours before predicted landfall.
Google News list of news stories running at 98% Australian media.
Posted by LeftieLatteLover on 2006 03 19 at 07:15 AM • permalinkEntropy,
The tide times for Cairns from Monday (tomorrow) are:
Mon 20
TimeHt
0534 1.75 Low tide
0846 2.00 High tide
1742 1.25 Low tideTue 21
TimeHt
0048 2.09 High tide
0251 2.04 Low tide
0408 2.05 High tide
1830 1.37 Low tideWed 22
TimeHt
0450 2.28 High tide
1319 1.57 Low tide
1623 1.65 High tide
2151 1.36 Low tideAs you can see, there is bugger-all between low and high - 1 cm on Tuesday with a 1 hour 20 minute cycle!
2 - 3 metres above this rather benign level would be disastrous to the Cairns CBD - think of the Boxing Day tsunami - which is relatively flat for several km from the ocean. At least the CBD is 2m or so above sea-level.
As far as I am aware, Cairns has avoided cyclones for well over a century.
Can’t let a cyclone thread go by without a reminder of Cyclone Tracy, that wiped the city of Darwin off the map on Christmas Day 1974 (being Christmas Day & Darwin being pretty isolated, no-one down south noticed it had gone for a few hours).
From the National Archives Fact Sheet:
From midnight until 7.00am on Christmas Day, the cyclone passed directly over Darwin, with its ‘eye’ centred over the airport and northern suburbs. The rainfall was torrential and winds were officially recorded at 217 kilometres per hour (unofficial estimates placed them as high as 300 kilometres per hour). Houses and other buildings disintegrated under the onslaught, accompanied by the sounds of flying debris and breaking glass.
With the cyclone’s passing, 49 people had died in the city and another 16 were lost at sea. Many more were injured. In all, 70 per cent of Darwin’s homes were destroyed or suffered severe structural damage. All services – communications, power, water and sewerage – were severed.
The Prime Minister at the time was Gough Whitlam (aka the Witless Goof) - still the Hero of the Left in Australia. Unfortunately, the old fool was in Europe at the time - touring the ruins of Athens as it happens. In spite of one of his cities being blown away, the Witless Goof couldn’t see why he should interrupt his European holiday. Eventually he did come back to Oz. But I recall he went back to Europe to resume his trip after a while.
gee, thanks Gough. Can you imaging Bush being in Europe goofing around at the times of New Orleans’ crisis and him saying “gee, do I really need to break my holiday”?
Whitlam is still revered by all of the left in Australia. Says a lot about them.
Posted by Stop Continental Drift! on 2006 03 19 at 07:45 AM • permalinkOops, wrong URL used - sorry. Pic of Darwin flattened here
Posted by Stop Continental Drift! on 2006 03 19 at 07:48 AM • permalinkThe storm surge isn’t the main problem on the coast, just the destructive winds. The worst destruction on a populated area in recent history in Australia was Cyclone Tracy in 1974 ... try this link ...
Cyclone Vance hit Exmouth WA in March 1999 with a recorded windspeed of 267 kmh. Then the measuring instrument blew away.
Houses in Exmouth are built to withstand cyclonic winds, but even so, 10% of Exmouth buildings were destroyed by Vance.
Lets hope that TC Larry reduces speed before it hits the Queensland coast.
God bless you all in NQ, and may He keep you safe.
Posted by Pedro the Ignorant on 2006 03 19 at 08:14 AM • permalinkkaboom, weird.
I got my tide times from my tides.info widget.
Yours look like the BOM figures
I found yet another set from mobilegeographics.com:
2006-03-19 11:36 PM EST 2.16 meters High Tide
2006-03-20 5:11 AM EST 1.81 meters Low Tide
2006-03-20 6:20 AM EST Sunrise
2006-03-20 9:01 AM EST 2.07 meters High Tide
2006-03-20 5:22 PM EST 1.33 meters Low Tide
2006-03-20 6:28 PM EST SunsetI think yours are probably more accurate than what some yankee websites think.
If the beast slows down any it will cross the coast at high tide. lets hope it doesn’t.
Probably a tad late for those that did NOT leave….BUT a Category 5 (assumption that your scale of measurement is the same as U.S.) ain’t pretty. Bless you and keep safe.
I stopped riding the damn things out in Florida, when I couldn’t move my legs against the wind and saw all sorts of things that could make me very short, flying by. AND hell that doesn’t cover storm surge, flooding from intense rain, and tornadic weather happenings.
LLL said:
“But Howard must be prepared to take a lot of heat for not having rushed through the necessary legislation to prevent the banana price protifteering we will see in the next few weeks.”So the supply of bananas may be wiped out and what is the response of the Left - introduce legislation to impose price controls on bananas. Typical!!
So what if prices of bananas go to $10 or $15 per kilo. I don’t buy them now unless they are under $3.
The high price has the effect of rationing a product in short supply. It also has the effect of sending a signal that bananas are wanted and quickly. So what would be the effect of fixing the price of bananas at pre storm levels? We would quickly run out of bananas as the last remaining stocks are snapped up and there would be no incentive anywhere to restore supply.
Those businesses that really need bananas eg restaurants and strip joints :)would be left without any supply at all. The left however can confort themselves in knowing that they advocated the protection of consumers from evil profiteers.
Consumers will be delighted to know that, courtesy of the left, they can purchase all the bananas available at $3 a kilo ie absolutely none.
people, it’s time to show solidarity with our northern brothers & sisters by sending an adequate supply of banana guards
hope all blairites up there stay safe
Sounds like a case where presence of mind is good, but absence of body better.
I don’t like the looks of this. How thongs turn out will depend both on the Cyclone’s exact characteristics, but also how well building codes have been enforced during the long Cyclone-free years.
I’d expect all leave at RAAF Richmond to be cancelled shortly (assuming it hasn’t been already), and ROWPUs and other relief supplies being palletised up on C-130s as I write.
Too bad we don’t have the C-17’s yet, they’d be invaluable.
Further to the above… how do I know what’s needed? See abstract #56 of a paper on the subject, by a woman I used to work with, and a guy who I used to, um, know.
The road transport infrastructure there is pretty poor, and can essentially be discounted in the first week or two, until road-clearing gear arrives. Fortunately population density is low enough so evacuation is a feasible option - and probably the only option on some tourist resorts. A major population centre, Brisbane, is relatively close, that can take in quite a few evacuees without straining accomodation or hospital facilities. Any spillover could be taken to other capitals.
Hopefully this won’t be necessary, but we have to prepare for the worst. Darn, those C-17s would have been really useful right now.
#33, do you have any suggestions for how this fascist rationing program of bananas and banana-derived products should be undertaken?
Who exactly gets priority to these golden miracles of vitamins and roughage?
This is how the mind of a true, ultra-paranoid Leftie works :
“Howard will finally release the detail of his extremist industrial relations reforms tomorrow morning…only hours after the worst cyclone to hit Queensland in decades has laid waste to man, beast, tourist resort and banana. So guess which event the media will be totally focused on? Coincidence?”
Posted by LeftieLatteLover on 2006 03 19 at 09:33 AM • permalinkYou are not funny, you are an offensive troll, #41
I know I’m not supposed to feed trolls, but this shit posted above is beyond a joke.Clear off, dunce.
Posted by Pedro the Ignorant on 2006 03 19 at 09:40 AM • permalinkGood luck and God speed, NQ.
But don’t worry—- blame this
hurricanecyclcone on Bush all you like. God knows he is blamed for everything else. One more disaster can’t hurt.Posted by The_Real_JeffS on 2006 03 19 at 10:19 AM • permalinkWow. Good luck, everyone, and stay safe.
Posted by Andrea Harris, Administrator on 2006 03 19 at 10:39 AM • permalinkKK — Hey, has anyone alerted Hurricane Jim Wolcott?
Posted by richard mcenroe on 2006 03 19 at 01:22 PM • permalink2nd line of the post:
Central Pressure : 935 Hectopascals
I almost mistook this for another croquet thread right there. Good thing there’s pictures and stuff.
Posted by Stoop Davy Dave on 2006 03 20 at 05:30 PM • permalink
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