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PREDICTIONS REVIEWED
John Hawkins interviewed me a couple of years ago. Predictions were made. Let’s see how I did:
Hawkins: How can peace in Middle East be achieved?
Blair: I couldn’t presume to say, except that it most likely will start with getting rid of Arafat. After that, who knows. Different players, different game.
Looking good: “The death of Yasser Arafat in November fundamentally altered the character of their politics. Tired of the Old Man’s corruption and violence, a sizable majority of Palestinians chose to replace him with a man known for moderation and willingness to parley with Israel. Even more important, Israel and the U.S., which had ostracized Arafat for two years, were willing to deal with him.”
Hawkins: Why do you think that seemingly the entire world except for the United States has come down so firmly on the side of Yasser Arafat and the Palestinians?
Blair: Because the entire world is wrong. As presented by the media, anyway. I can’t believe that global opinion outside of the press is as one-sided. After the big pro-Jewish rallies in Paris last week, I’m sure it’s not.
BBC reporters were more upset about Arafat’s illness than the Palestinians were.
Hawkins: Are you surprised at the large rift that’s occurred in US-European relations since Sept 11th and what do you think the implications of that split are?
Blair: Bush foreshadowed the split by announcing early that the US would take action whether any European allies were joining the US or not. Strange, isn’t it; Bush was meant to have no knowledge at all of Europe, but he picked the mood there perfectly. As for implications … well, none of them are good for Europe.
Europe continues to sink.
Hawkins: Australia doesn’t seem to have the same level of anti-Americanism that many nations in Europe do. Is that the case in your opinion? If so, why do you think that is?
Blair: We’ve got our anti-US forces. Lots of them. We’ve taken the precaution of rounding them up and keeping them penned in newspaper offices.
Where they remain.
Hawkins: Do you think Australia will support the US long term in the war on terrorism? Why so?
Blair: Yeah, we’ll be there. We’re brother nations. Twenty Australians died on September 11. It’s our war, too. And both major parties here know it, deeply.
Wrong, wrong, wrong. The ALP, under Latham, moved determinedly away from supporting the US.
Hawkins: If and when do you see the United States hitting Iraq? How do you think it’ll work out?
Blair: It all depends on Iraq’s fearsome Elite Republican Guard. Why, those feisty desert warriors could hold out for minutes. Dozens of US troops will be required. Perhaps they’ll even need their weapons. Don’t know when, of course. Wouldn’t expect it to last long once it happens.
Right on the invasion phase, wrong on the “Michael Moore’s beloved Minute Men” phase.
Hawkins: Here’s a theoretical question. After the United States topples Saddam Hussein, do you think we’ll hit Iran next if their government hasn’t already toppled by then?
Blair: Hopeful answer: Iran implodes out of fright, and no attacks are needed. It could happen. They’ll have a great view of Saddam’s demise, after all.
Pending.
Was Nostradamus an ancestor of yours, tim?
Posted by The_Real_JeffS on 2005 03 12 at 09:22 AM • permalinkThe rise of Sharon, rather than the fall of Arafat, is the key to the change the mood in the Palestinians. Arafat has been on the decline for years and was only nominally in charge of Intifada II. This was started with grass roots sectarian support.
The big change was Sharon’s decision to kill the militant Palestinian leaders ("targetted assasinaion") whilst constraining the Palestinian people ("build up that Wall"). The Wall & IDF checkpoints have exhausted Palestinian economy.
The conciliatory move is Sharon’s ability to to push ultra-conservative Judaic settlers out of Gaza, which is indefensible.Jack -
What you say is quite correct but lets not forget that Bill Clinton gave new life to Arafat who would have otherwise died fat and happy (and filthy rich) in obscurity in Tunisia, vastly strengthening PLO/Fatah/alAqsa which resulted in intifada2.
It made me physically sick to see Arafat at the White House those many times.Let’s give you part credit on Labour, Tim. It’s hard for an rational being to overestimate the malice and insularity of the modern Left…
Posted by richard mcenroe on 2005 03 12 at 01:33 PM • permalinkSo, Jack, the Israelis exhausted the Palestinian economy, and years of PLO officials, right up to Arafat, stealing everything they could get, and sending it to Switzerland, had nothing to do with the Palestinian economy.
By the way, your tin-foil hat is ready, and can be picked up from the cleaners at your convenience.
Also, Arafat and his fellow conspirators planned Intifada II months in advance.
Tim, your ability to admit when you have made a failed prediction is one of the reasons I can’t help but keep coming back here (despite you generally being right). Can you imagine Margo, Philip Adams, Pilger, indeed any of the moonbat brigade doing a 2 year review of predictions made?
Of course, that’s not really a fair comparison, they could hardly be called your “counterparts” could they?
Someone like Jon Stewart gets the thumbs up too, for having the balls to public admit he was wrong. I know he’s not a print journalist, but similar principle.
I wouldn’t beat yourself up to much over the labor thing. Some of the state premiers have a clue.
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Uncanny,Tim, my only reply is that you must be in league with Lucifer.