<< ROPE SMOKED ~ MAIN ~ DISOWNERS WELCOMED >>
PALL CAST
Illinois Democrat Rahm Emanuel on Republican gains in recent pre-election polls:
This is making me nervous.
But the Age’s Michael Gawenda anticipates a Republican rout, driven in large part by a scandal involving some church guy:
With less than three days to go before up to 100 million Americans go to the polls to decide whether Democrats or Republicans will control Congress in the last two years of the Bush presidency, controversy, bad news and bad timing continue to dog the Republican Party.
First came the revelation that an evangelical leader paid for sex and bought drugs from a male escort ...
Even as George Bush was campaigning for two embattled Republican House members in Colorado on “values” issues, the Reverend Ted Haggard was being dismissed as the leader of the influential 14,000-member New Life Church in Colorado Springs — the church he founded 22 years ago. The church’s executive board said he was guilty of “sexually immoral conduct”.
Mr Haggard, 50, resigned late last week as president of the National Association of Evangelicals, a lobby organisation in Washington that put him in regular contact with the White House and George Bush.
He admitted that he had monthly “massages” from a male escort in Denver who also supplied him with metamphetamines, which he reckons he threw away before sampling.
Mr Bush did not mention Mr Haggard in speeches in Greeley, Colorado, but Mr Haggard’s fall from grace cast a pall over these campaign rallies in which Mr Bush was desperate to fire up his party’s conservative base.
Captain Ed has more on this powerfully influential Haggard fellow. Gawenda’s conclusion: “Tomorrow seems almost certain to mark the end of the Republican Party ascendancy in American politics.”
UPDATE. The Apologist comments: “I’ve been an Evangelical all my life and I feel like I’m takin’ crazy pills here. Why does anyone anywhere think some politically active preacher bonin’ some dude has an impact on the election?”
UPDATE II. Latest SMH headline: “Bush can kiss House goodbye.”
“Tomorrow seems almost certain to mark the end of the Republican Party ascendancy in American politics.”
Or not. My prediction, from the comfort of an Australian lounge chair, the Republican party is returned with a diminished majority. Gawenda then moves into telephone clairvoyancy, predicting that Mars will ascend in Uranus.
Go the democrats, no stained dresses or sexual pecadillos in their closets. Other than William Jefferson Clinton of course.
.
.
oh and that Kennedy guy.
.
.
on second thoughts, go the Republicans!!!Posted by surfmaster on 2006 11 06 at 05:17 AM • permalinkI expect Democrats to win the house, which will mean nothing, as Bush can veto everything he wants to, and Republicans to hold the Senate.
Given the situation with the war in Iraq, the Foley scandal and other less than ideal situations, if the Democrats don’t pick up more than the average number of seats in the house at the 6 year point of a Presidency - 28 or so - then they can be considered to have failed miserably and will be no hope in 2008.
Posted by Jack Lacton on 2006 11 06 at 05:24 AM • permalinkDoes anyone else think Michael Gawenda looks like a Fathead fish?
Posted by flying pigs over mecca on 2006 11 06 at 05:31 AM • permalinkThe MSM talk up the Left’s chances at every election. They completely ignore reality and grasp at all sorts of supposed scandals and setbacks that don’t resonate at all with the average voter. It doesn’t matter whether it’s Latham, Kerry, Gore or Beazley. No wonder they go absolutely batsh*t insane when they lose.
Posted by Art Vandelay on 2006 11 06 at 06:10 AM • permalink#6 Is that a fish called Gawenda? Some one ought to make a movie..
Posted by Viril Brun on 2006 11 06 at 06:32 AM • permalinkYes, it is interesting to see Dems doing expectation management after their triumphalist tone of the past few weeks.
That Haggart thing will do nothing to hurt the Republicans, certainly no where near as much as Kerry’s idiocy (s).
Posted by Andrew Ian Dodge on 2006 11 06 at 06:47 AM • permalinkFor the sake of Americans and the world I hope that the Republicans do well and for that reason a Republican victory will give me great pleasure.
As an Australian, what will give me even greater pleasure is watching stunned Australian news readers trying to hold down their bile as they announce the results.Then he goes and writes sh*t like that and f#cks it all up.
There’s a certain disease affecting normally more or less sensible people on the center-left (as opposed to those leftoids who are nuts on any subject)...for the more prone members, bringing up the US in a discussion makes them go batshit-crazy, for the slightly less affected ones it takes the specific mention of Dubya. I suppose the latter variant is generally classified as BDS when encountered stateside. I’m not sure it’s been named when it affects foreigners.
Anyway, Gawenda definitely belongs in the latter group...I too tend to be pleasantly surprised when he writes about more general US-based subjects, but anytime he delves into politics his articles are straight out of fantasy land.
This sky-pilot who’s apparently been caught thumping something besides his Bible must not only be extremely influential, but extraordinarily cunning: I had never heard of him until the story broke in the MSM. This looks to me like a purely local story which has been blown up out of all proportion, a paper bag inflated to the size of the Hindenburg. It seems like the MSM, as usual, is committing politics before an election, and this is a particularly poor specimen of scandal, smacking of desperation. Am buying another bottle of madeira to celebrate the Republicans retaining both houses.
I would vote Democrat if:
1. I was stupid enough to believe anyone who’s life view was built either around institutionalized and organized crime or Marxist ideology.
2. I thought that making homosexuality the “new normal” was a good thing.
3. I could trust an organization populated by morons that believe that good comes from lowering all expectations of behavior and/or achievement.
4. I was a child molester that wanted to support fellow child molesters who were in positions of power to make child molestation the “new normal”.
5. I was so mindless as to believe that a good economic policy for my nation was to have all citizens give up all their ownings to the government so that the government could provide us what they thought we needed.
6. I could get on board behind an effort to emasculate my nation’s military during a time of war (or peace even).
7. I so hated my own nation and culture that I could support those who’s demonstrated goal is to remove my nation’s sovereignty and self determination and demolish our national borders.
But, since I am not a traitor, nor able to tolerate those that are, I can not vote Democrat.
What does this have to do with anything?
What if Sean Penn was caught attending a prayer meeting? Does that mean millions of Democrats would stay home on November 7 in...what...protest?
If Rosie O’Donnell turned out to be a closet heterosexual would Andrew Sullivan vote Republican again?
What are the supposed, I don’t know, “mechanics” of this “influence”? What is the alleged line of reasoning Evangelicals are going to suddenly turn to? It just makes no sense to me at all.
I’ve been an Evangelical all my life and I feel like I’m takin’ crazy pills here. Why does anyone anywhere think some politically active preacher bonin’ some dude has an impact on the election?
Posted by The Apologist on 2006 11 06 at 09:44 AM • permalink#9
Couldn’t agree more, Art. I think also a reduced but intact majority in Congress for us in the Grouchy Ol’ Party. And then the moonbats will try to lynch the poor slobs at Diebold, because they’d been promised a victory by the MSM’s Suppress The Vote ‘06 campaign. Unfortunately, with these donkeyholes you never hear the last of anything.
Anyway: Got my red-white-and-blue elephant-laden gloat tie ready for action Wednesday.
#12
From a newsite for which I forgot to copy the link.Time Magazine included Pastor Haggard in their list of the 25 Most Influential Evangelicals in America. The Wall Street Journal noted his advisory role with the Bush White House, calling him one “of the nation’s most politically influential” clergy, and Harper’s Magazine wrote, “No pastor in America holds more sway over the political direction of evangelicalism than does Pastor Ted."
I only follow religion in the U.S. through the MSM and religous press and my own assessment is that (a) I think the influence of Christians/churches on U.S. policy and votes is overstated (the politicking seems to be a different matter) and (b) Haggard only seems to have local rather than national visibility in what seems to be an evangelical enclave in Colorado and (c) whatever Americans call ‘evangelical’ seems at odds with what we call ‘evangelical’ down where I live.Reading stuff by Gawenda is like reading Paul McGeoch’s contributions in the SMH (for me)
I automatically think the opposite - a bit like when “The Men of No Appearance” strike I always think they are of ME descent because the SMH would like me to believe they’re not
Posted by aussiemagpie on 2006 11 06 at 10:46 AM • permalinkAnd as there was mention of betting further upthread
Sorry this is really O/T
The Race that Stops a Nation is on later today here in OZ and for a few minutes there will be no talk of climate, elections, politics except about the weather at Flemington Racecourse and the state of the gardens there, what people are wearing and which famous person ends up “tired and emotional”
Sorry that’s all the O/T I’ll post - just a bit of light relief
As for Gawenda and McGeoch - I also always think that they will receive a Walkley because they write with the required attitude to get one
Posted by aussiemagpie on 2006 11 06 at 10:53 AM • permalink“Tomorrow seems almost certain to mark the end of the Republican Party ascendancy in American politics.”
Actually, 2000 marked the end of Republican ascendancy. Since getting both houses of congress and the presidency, they have not managed to add a single elected federal body to their holdings.
Posted by tim maguire on 2006 11 06 at 10:54 AM • permalink#32 tim maguire
Aren’t you forgetting our Oz Federal Government?
PM Howard is Pres Bush’s deputy sheriff and Pres Bush directs all our policies I’ve heard! (From my moonbat friends)
Posted by aussiemagpie on 2006 11 06 at 11:01 AM • permalink#34 splice
Well said! You would think that someone higher up would have whispered in the ear of whoever organises US elections and told them to lay off for a few days
This is THE Melbourne Cup for heaven’s sake
The whole world should be stopped to watch it
Just think - a few minutes of world peace
No shooting, no voting, no nothing - just a peaceful horse race
Posted by aussiemagpie on 2006 11 06 at 12:00 PM • permalink#37 splice
There is some symbolism at the Melbourne Cup
Apparently the Emirates marquee is all done up like Versailles
But no burnt cars in sight I’d reckon
Posted by aussiemagpie on 2006 11 06 at 12:34 PM • permalinkI thik the result will be the GOP holds the Senate (with 51 Senators), winning the races in Montana and Maryland (Michael Steele—if he wins, he could be the first Black president or vice president) but losing in Virginia. I think the Democrats win the House, but no saying by how much.
That is also my preferred outcome. I fear if the GOP wins the House, or even very narrowly loses it, the result will be seen as caused by the Foley scandal and some Iraq backlash and there will not be the massive retooling of the conservative message that we need.
I have been a conservative my whole life (I was a conservative as a teenager - -that is how boring I was!). I have migrated across conservativism in that time, settling, for no, in a sort of radical libertarianism combined with a desire to defeat Islamic terrorism. I think the GOP House leadership especially and President Bush have failed on both.
It will be fun to see what happens though as many of the Democratic candidates are somewhat conservative (James Webb, Democratic Senate candidate in Virginia is an out and out right wing dinosaur) and will be at odds with the Democratic leadership. The only thing I worry is that the Democrats will be far worse, especially given that the house leadership is extremely liberal these days.
#39
I don’t know that the House leadership is extremely liberal since the only reason you actually have a fence authorization is because it was forced on the Senate and Bush by the House conservatives. Seems to me that the House, on balance, is the only conservative body in the whole bleeping gov’t.
There is no real “conservative” vs “liberal” anymore in American politics.
The only real differentiation is that the DNC is much more willing to do damage to the nation as a whole in order to gain political power.
The GOP are a cluster gaggle of wastrels, spendthrifts and generally spineless **nts but at least manage to keep some baseline loyalty to “the good of the nation” when it comes to dealing with the foreign enemy.
#40, yojimbo: you’re right, I got careless. The republican ascendancy ended in 2002.
#33, aussiemagpie: you’re right too. I hadn’t considered progress on the republican’s international efforts.
Posted by tim maguire on 2006 11 06 at 01:46 PM • permalinkBecause, you know, we all voted those damn televangelists into, um, televangeling… so it obviously represents a malaise in the electorate…
Posted by richard mcenroe on 2006 11 06 at 09:39 PM • permalinkIf Rosie O’Donnell turned out to be a closet heterosexual would Andrew Sullivan vote Republican again?
Actually, it’s been revealed that Rosie is actually a male. He’s been doing the lesbian stick cuz no woman will do a guy that ugly…
Posted by richard mcenroe on 2006 11 06 at 10:59 PM • permalink
Page 1 of 1 pages
Members:
Login | Register
| Member List
Gawenda’s kind of our Stateside Alan Ramsey. If he says down, then up is a pretty safe bet.