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OZ VOTES

Polls now closed in Tasmania, Victoria, and NSW; Andrew Bolt calls it for Labor on the basis of exit polls.

UPDATE. ABC’s Jim Middleton reports massive confidence among Laborites, gloom among Libs.

UPDATE II. Jackie Kelly on Seven’s Fun-O-Rama coverage appears to be wearing snails on her ears. Informative Seven graphic: “All 150 House of Representative seats are up for grabs.” Joe Hockey mentions police were called to a couple of booths in his North Sydney seat.

UPDATE III. Senator Helen Coonan on Nine: “It’s not looking good ... it is disappointing.” Wayne Swan: “What we may have tonight is the revolt of the pendulum.” Very loud cheering in background of Nine’s broadcast.

UPDATE IV. The early Green vote in NSW seems enormous; nobody has mentioned it as yet.

UPDATE V. Early swing against the government of 10% in Jackie Kelly’s old seat. Seven just deployed a Dancing Kevin graphic. ABC-Labor’s McKew leading in Bennelong after 3% of votes counted. The other ABC-Labor candidate, Mike Bailey, trailing narrowly in North Sydney.

UPDATE VI. Malcolm Turnbull said to be improving his vote in the fightin’ fields of Wentworth. Seven Labor pundit - little bald guy; missed his name - predicts Labor gain in NSW of 6-7 seats.

UPDATE VII. According to projections on Nine, Labor now needs nine more seats to win (instant update: just moved back to ten) (instant update II: now back to nine, then eight). Joe Hockey: “Watch Western Australia. Watch Western Australia.”

UPDATE VIII. Seven’s Koch now says Howard is “gone” in Bennelong - 5.5% of vote counted, according to ABC. “It’s an incredible concept to get your head around,” says Kerry O’Brien.

UPDATE IX. Nine now claiming Labor needs just four more seats for victory. ABC report very slow counts in Queensland and South Australia; chads? Mia Handshin ahead in Sturt!

Posted by Tim B. on 11/24/2007 at 03:19 AM
  1. I think “crap” is the appropriate word, is it not?

    Posted by Hucbald on 2007 11 24 at 03:21 AM • permalink

  2. Perhaps “bugger”?

    Posted by Villeurbanne on 2007 11 24 at 03:22 AM • permalink

  3. AEC Virtual Tally Room

    Someone just posted this link at Free Republic dot com on the Aussie election watch thread. No clue if it’s accurate or not though.

    Posted by Grimmy on 2007 11 24 at 03:26 AM • permalink

  4. ABC is showing a Lib gain of 1 seat from Labour. Mind you their total %age of votes adds up to 106%. So it may be a computer glitch.

    Posted by phil_b on 2007 11 24 at 03:27 AM • permalink

  5. At least we can have fun pointing out the Rudd reversals and forgotten non-core promises.  I look forward (if Krudd wins) to watching the lefties going to vicious hate fits which pass for celebrations. Similarly, I’ll be enjoying the gnashing of teeth and wailing followed by the lefty exodus from Australia if Krudd loses.

    Posted by darrinhV2 on 2007 11 24 at 03:29 AM • permalink

  6. I’m not going to throw the silver down the well and move in with the chickens just yet.

    Posted by Simon Darkshade on 2007 11 24 at 03:30 AM • permalink

  7. Now Labour has gained 1 from the Nationals.

    Biggish swing to the Greens as well.

    Posted by phil_b on 2007 11 24 at 03:32 AM • permalink

  8. This is the only poll that matters.

    These early results come from outlying booths and may not be representative.

    I think that it’s way too early to tell and this is too close to call.

    We could be up all night.

    The Postal votes still haven’t been counted

    In fact, we might not know this result for weeks.

    One thing for sure, tonight was a great result for the Greens with their primary vote above 10 per cent in some electorates and somewhat less in many others.

    Posted by Margos Maid on 2007 11 24 at 03:32 AM • permalink

  9. Polls are still open here in the West. TV reporting embargoed. Its like the Internet doesn’t exist for these people.

    Posted by phil_b on 2007 11 24 at 03:34 AM • permalink

  10. Okay, the people have spoken, now let’s see what they said.

    Posted by Crossie on 2007 11 24 at 03:35 AM • permalink

  11. Beattie on 7 sees a trend with only one per cent counted and just about calls it for Labor!

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 03:36 AM • permalink

  12. Tanya Plibersek has stolen Jack Nicholson’s mouth as The Joker…

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 03:38 AM • permalink

  13. It’s New South Wales kicking the Libs in the bum….why, after re-electing the Iemma government, I dunno. Guess it must be a sense of humor or something?

    #11 If Beattie wants to do that, I call Hunt for the Nationals…

    LOL…

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 03:40 AM • permalink

  14. Hunter, sorry. Got confused with Mike.

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 03:41 AM • permalink

  15. A lot is being said about exit polls but are they any more indicative than the ones in the 2004 US presidential election?

    Posted by Crossie on 2007 11 24 at 03:44 AM • permalink

  16. ABC now showing a gain of 3 for Labour with a 2.5% swing to Labour. Going to need those Green preferences to get over the line.

    Posted by phil_b on 2007 11 24 at 03:44 AM • permalink

  17. Peter Garrett receives glorious 15% swing.

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 03:45 AM • permalink

  18. Good grief - now Beattie and the Labs on 7 are convinced Howard’s lost his seat with only 100 votes counted

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 03:45 AM • permalink

  19. Hawkie’s on Sky News - he looks pissed already…

    Posted by anthony_r on 2007 11 24 at 03:46 AM • permalink

  20. I, for one, welcome our new Labor overlords.

    Posted by Rajan R on 2007 11 24 at 03:47 AM • permalink

  21. Way to go Jooooooooowlia. Keep crackin’ jokes about how those in Yarra Glen are going for the Libs at the moment because they’ve had a few wines, and they’re guaranteed to love you.

    Posted by Ash_ on 2007 11 24 at 03:48 AM • permalink

  22. ABC now showing just a gain of 1 seat by Labour. Definitely not the landslide the polls and pundits predicted.

    Posted by phil_b on 2007 11 24 at 03:48 AM • permalink

  23. Wait…what the frag is happening in Franklin.

    Anti-government swing seems to be mainly in NSW. Odd, since they have, hands down, the most incompetent ALP state government.

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 03:50 AM • permalink

  24. #19 - Hawkie just dropped the word ‘shit’ into a sentence on Sky. Hope he isn’t driving tonight.

    Posted by Villeurbanne on 2007 11 24 at 03:51 AM • permalink

  25. My mistake, Tasmania is swinging equally away from Coalition and ALP to….Greens.

    Ewww..

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 03:51 AM • permalink

  26. Quentin:

    Sir. When posting tonight, would you and your fellow countrymen mind going a bit deeper in what it means? Some of y’alls foreign freinds (ok, I mean me..probably the only one too stoopid to read between the lines is me) are having a hard time figuring what’s meant.

    Posted by Grimmy on 2007 11 24 at 03:53 AM • permalink

  27. Has anyone else noticed how scary Jooooooowlia looks tonight?

    Posted by Ash_ on 2007 11 24 at 03:54 AM • permalink

  28. Did anyone else have huge queues at the polling stations today?

    —Nick

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 03:54 AM • permalink

  29. Beattie being an absolute ass on 7. No mic contact for Anna Coren in live cross from Brisbane makes her look intelligent.

    —Nick

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 03:56 AM • permalink

  30. Did I just come home from a long day at work to hear Red Kezza make spruzzo in his boxers because Maxine is up in one booth?

    Posted by lotocoti on 2007 11 24 at 03:56 AM • permalink

  31. Here in Perth the queue was close to 70 or 80 people at 11 AM, and I was told it was the shortest since the polls opened.

    Posted by phil_b on 2007 11 24 at 03:57 AM • permalink

  32. Shadow SomethingOrOther Stephen Smith is predicting a four seat majority to the ALP.

    Posted by Villeurbanne on 2007 11 24 at 03:58 AM • permalink

  33. Unusual levels of turnout for the vote? Or is that more or less normal queue times?

    Posted by Grimmy on 2007 11 24 at 03:59 AM • permalink

  34. #28 I did, but thankfully it was in the shade.

    Posted by Ash_ on 2007 11 24 at 03:59 AM • permalink

  35. We had seven people at the embassy in Paris when I went to vote the other day and this seemed a lot for a workday afternoon.

    Posted by Villeurbanne on 2007 11 24 at 03:59 AM • permalink

  36. 31 Phil - same at 11am on the Gold Coast too. Had one person say she’d come over from another station because there was a 35 min queue at another.

    —Nick

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 03:59 AM • permalink

  37. #33 - Voting is compulsory in Australia so voter turn out is always about the same.

    Posted by Villeurbanne on 2007 11 24 at 04:00 AM • permalink

  38. #37, kisdm001:

    Ohh. Ok. Here it’s all voluntary and often ignored by most.

    Posted by Grimmy on 2007 11 24 at 04:02 AM • permalink

  39. Ive got a bad feeling that it will be a labour landslide due to green prefrences.
    Mind you it will be fun to see Lab trying to justify its multitude of backflips after the election.

    Posted by thefrollickingmole on 2007 11 24 at 04:02 AM • permalink

  40. 37 - but we’ve never seen queues like this before. I know the Gold Coast is growing quickly - in fact we live in the fastest growing district in Australia - but it was weird.

    —Nick

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:02 AM • permalink

  41. Pretty terrible results for the Coalition currently, but Queensland and WA (expected to be their strongest results) haven’t come in yet.

    Still, if you don’t win NSW, you don’t win the election.

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 04:03 AM • permalink

  42. I bid you all, and the lovely Pogria, *kissy, kissy, smooch, smooch* a fond good night.  I MAY have started in on the beer a couple of hours early for your time zone. ;^/

    Posted by Hucbald on 2007 11 24 at 04:04 AM • permalink

  43. They’ve plugged Coren’s mic in now - and the polls have just closed in Queensland #chug!#

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:05 AM • permalink

  44. #27 Ash: Just what I was thinking. Is that a new haircut?

    Posted by SandiM on 2007 11 24 at 04:06 AM • permalink

  45. 7 Qld news reporting on overnight violence at Indooroopilly where yobs armed with stanley knives cut down Liberal banners and beat up 2 Lib workers

    —Nick

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:07 AM • permalink

  46. Early polling always favours the dingbats, due to inner seats being counted first. Wait for Qld and WA.

    Posted by Habib on 2007 11 24 at 04:08 AM • permalink

  47. #42 oooh Huc,

    *blushing furiously*

    Good night mwah, mwah

    Posted by Pogria on 2007 11 24 at 04:10 AM • permalink

  48. #33, Grimmy,

    My nearest polling booth was very busy, 10-minute queue, but that’s normal for that booth. My husband went to another booth a few streets away earlier in the day and walked right in.

    We have compulsory voting here in Oz. We are served with fines if we don’t show up.

    Our kids voted at their convenience. I don’t know their choices or my husband’s, and they don’t know mine. Democracy as she should be.

    Posted by mareeS on 2007 11 24 at 04:11 AM • permalink

  49. what Habib said.
    That’s exactly what happens every election.
    The real trends start coming in around midnight.

    Posted by Pogria on 2007 11 24 at 04:12 AM • permalink

  50. Big queue at oh-eight-early for one Griffith booth.  The lady behind me had a good dig at the greens profligate use of how to vote broadsheets.

    Posted by lotocoti on 2007 11 24 at 04:13 AM • permalink

  51. I’ll be liveblogging at the DD if anyone gives a shit, at least until I fall out of the chair due to gin.

    Anyone who takes notice of early indications, I’m open for another wager.

    I still reckon I’m going to have to call on the services of Rocco and Moose to collect from Centrebet.

    Posted by Habib on 2007 11 24 at 04:13 AM • permalink

  52. Tasmanians. Giving Greens 13% of the vote. Bah, I say. Bah.

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 04:14 AM • permalink

  53. 7’s coverage is using the phrase ‘knife edge’ a lot. Bugger - we should have made it chuggable!

    —Nick

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:16 AM • permalink

  54. #44 I dunno Sandi, but I keep on thinking it’s going to leap off her head and strangle Nick Minchin.

    Posted by Ash_ on 2007 11 24 at 04:17 AM • permalink

  55. #52
    Not much of a gene pool damp spot.

    Posted by lotocoti on 2007 11 24 at 04:18 AM • permalink

  56. Let’s not hand the keys over yet. Remember 1969 and Don’s Party!
    Remember 1977 as well. Labor was supremely confident going into that election; Fraser was finally going to get his comeuppance and King Gough would be back on the throne. Early numbers favoured them, but in the end it didn’t quite work out that way.

    Posted by SwinishCapitalist on 2007 11 24 at 04:19 AM • permalink

  57. Whoever’s winning it’s time for a G&T.
    By the way, I saw Rescue Dawn today. Recommended.

    Posted by SwinishCapitalist on 2007 11 24 at 04:20 AM • permalink

  58. Cast your vote now:

    Who would win in a punch up between Kennett and Beattie?

    The pair are exchanging a couple or sharp words.

    —Nora

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:22 AM • permalink

  59. Early Queensland results show a swing to the Libs and Labour.

    Posted by phil_b on 2007 11 24 at 04:23 AM • permalink

  60. Ray Martin is salivating at the prospect of John Howard losing his seat, what a goon.

    Posted by darrinhV2 on 2007 11 24 at 04:24 AM • permalink

  61. Kennett.

    Posted by Ash_ on 2007 11 24 at 04:24 AM • permalink

  62. 60 - it’s Martin and Oakes are the very reasons why we’re watching 7 instead.

    —Nick

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:26 AM • permalink

  63. Boothby is swinging 4.5% to ditzy Nicole Cornes. Unbelievable.

    Posted by Villeurbanne on 2007 11 24 at 04:27 AM • permalink

  64. Are Ch 7 and 9 calling almost every seat for Labor despite the stats, like the ABC are?

    Posted by Ash_ on 2007 11 24 at 04:28 AM • permalink

  65. 64 Ash - the answer appears to be yes.

    —Nick

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:29 AM • permalink

  66. Don’t get too excited by the various tv station predictions. There’s a HUGE variance between the channel 9, ABC and Sky predictions.

    Posted by Young and Free on 2007 11 24 at 04:30 AM • permalink

  67. It shits me no end, that people who are disenchanted with both major parties, choose to vote Green.

    If you ever want to see exciting elections, watch Israel, where a wrong vote could literally cost you your home or your life. Moreover, a few people can get together, form a party and in a year have half the country voting for them.

    Our political system is due for overhaul. Starting with the abolition of compulsory voting.

    In America, people have bumper stickers saying “I [something] and I vote” to warn politicians. In this country, people also have such stickers e.g., “I watch the ABC and I vote” or “I shoot and I vote” however they might as well trade it in for one which says “I am over 18 and I vote”.

    Alternatively “I am an uneducated, braindead moron who takes too many drugs… And I vote.”

    Seriously open to brainwashing [glares at young people].

    Posted by Dan Lewis on 2007 11 24 at 04:30 AM • permalink

  68. #56
    You may be right, but being word perfect might be the only thing to keep us out of the
    Comrade Academician Hardy Harsh Regime Re-education Camp.
    Whilst dear Marieke can sniff out a crypto-socialist from a mile away, I understand she likes a catchy tune.

    Posted by lotocoti on 2007 11 24 at 04:31 AM • permalink

  69. Joooooooowlia: “I wouldn’t have thought North Brighton was going to favour us, because they’re, uh, they’re upper class income.”

    Sure Joooooooowls, and Kevvie ain’t? And as a partner in an ambulance chasing law firm, you can’t be bad off yourself.

    Posted by Ash_ on 2007 11 24 at 04:31 AM • permalink

  70. #62, I channel surfed to start with and decided that Channel 7 were the least objectionable.

    Posted by Crossie on 2007 11 24 at 04:32 AM • permalink

  71. Hahaha….

    And yeah, Dan Lewis, never understood the rationale for compulsory voting.

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 04:33 AM • permalink

  72. Alack, alas, those hicks from my hometown seem to have switched Page over to the Dark Side.

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 04:34 AM • permalink

  73. In the US, the only folk subjected to compulsory voting are the dead. And those only in traditional DNC held areas.

    Posted by Grimmy on 2007 11 24 at 04:35 AM • permalink

  74. Here’s what I don’t understand - why do the politicians from each side consistently view their own party as having a better shot? Obviously DURING the election it’s important to project confidence, but when polls have closed, they still talk about the results as if the impression of confidence can influence the outcome. It’s like they’re still trying to convince themselves, even though they’re aware that both people are looking at the same numbers, and there’ll be a definite answer soon enough. Weird.

    Posted by Behemoth on 2007 11 24 at 04:35 AM • permalink

  75. 70 Crossie - indeed, and Kochie and Mel are actually asking some good basic questions.

    —Nick

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:36 AM • permalink

  76. I dunno, I think even I wouldn’t go in and say, “I’m going to lose, baby!”

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 04:36 AM • permalink

  77. Kennett to floor Beattie. Kennett’s ex-Army, he has the edge with the fighting skills I’d say.

    Posted by SwinishCapitalist on 2007 11 24 at 04:37 AM • permalink

  78. aaaaaaahhhhhhh!!!!!

    They’re spouting a swing to Labor for Macarthur!!!

    must. stay. calm.

    must. stay. calm.

    90% of the vote to go.

    Posted by Pogria on 2007 11 24 at 04:38 AM • permalink

  79. #77 And Swinish, Kennett has the whole anger thing, Beattie just feels sorry for himself and apologises.

    And Kennett’s got arrogance on his side too.

    Posted by Ash_ on 2007 11 24 at 04:39 AM • permalink

  80. Good god, McKew is thinking of fronting the tally room as if she’s going to be the effing PM!

    —Nick

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:39 AM • permalink

  81. O’Brien’s nearly wetting his jocks at the thought of McKeeeeeeeeeew getting Bennelong.

    Posted by Ash_ on 2007 11 24 at 04:40 AM • permalink

  82. #76 Yes, but they won’t even just stick to ‘we’ll wait and see’. I can understand the instinct to talk yourself up, but it doesn’t make much sense when you think about it.

    Posted by Behemoth on 2007 11 24 at 04:40 AM • permalink

  83. #77 swinish,

    That’s if Jeff could catch the slippery little bastard.

    I reckon Jeff’d flatten him with the proverbial hand tied behind his back.

    Posted by Pogria on 2007 11 24 at 04:40 AM • permalink

  84. Gary Nairn (Eden-Monaro) is gone apparently, which is a shame, not only has he been there since ‘96, he was a good representative according to reports I have seen.  It’s starting to look crook.

    Posted by darrinhV2 on 2007 11 24 at 04:40 AM • permalink

  85. “It’s an incredible concept to get your head around,” says Kerry O’Brien.

    Fuck off Kerry, the seat had been redistributed into a marginal. A uniform swing of 2% was enough to make it toast.

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 04:43 AM • permalink

  86. #78, Pogria, the idle (and inclined to Labor) vote early and those who worked today would have just made it to the polling booths before closing time.  So I wouldn’t stress.

    Posted by Crossie on 2007 11 24 at 04:44 AM • permalink

  87. How many different ways can they find to pronounce ‘Eden-Monaro’?

    Posted by Villeurbanne on 2007 11 24 at 04:44 AM • permalink

  88. Beattie is an arrogant shit. He’s called the whole thing to Labor.

    Weazel rat bastard.

    —Nora

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:45 AM • permalink

  89. Compulsory voting with a fine if you don’t show? Might as well lower the voting age to 6, imho.

    Posted by dean martin on 2007 11 24 at 04:45 AM • permalink

  90. #86 Crossie, I heard an interesting theory today. It went along the lines of “those in early want change, those in late don’t.”

    Is there any truth in it?

    Posted by Ash_ on 2007 11 24 at 04:45 AM • permalink

  91. #89 Don’t give Labor ideas for revenue raising! I beg you Dean!

    Posted by Ash_ on 2007 11 24 at 04:46 AM • permalink

  92. I suppose Howard will be embarrassed at losing his seat. But he will be better off. As with all former PMs of either persuasion lucrative directorships and consultancies will be offered.  Book deals with big advances. He’ll get a package ten time the size of the PM’s measly salary.

    Posted by walterplinge on 2007 11 24 at 04:48 AM • permalink

  93. #93 but will he want them? or will hawkes nest be more attractive.

    Posted by entropy on 2007 11 24 at 04:49 AM • permalink

  94. #92 - Howard should go international. I’d love to see Howard as UN Sec Gen.

    Posted by Villeurbanne on 2007 11 24 at 04:49 AM • permalink

  95. I recall the same elation from asorted pillocks early in the counting, then relished the look on Kezza and Maxie’s dials later on- like Cartmans delight in licking the tearts off the face of people whose family had been murdered.

    Posted by Habib on 2007 11 24 at 04:50 AM • permalink

  96. #94 Don’t insult the man! :P

    Posted by Ash_ on 2007 11 24 at 04:50 AM • permalink

  97. Ash, I doubt that that idea holds water in my electorate - Stephen Smith, rock solid safe ALP, and there was a queue for the first time I can remember when I voted at 9am.
    Mind you, I DO want change, as in seeing Smiffy gone.

    Posted by SwinishCapitalist on 2007 11 24 at 04:51 AM • permalink

  98. #90, Ash, I haven’t heard that theory but it certainly makes sense.  Those eager for change would certainly be impatient for it.

    Posted by Crossie on 2007 11 24 at 04:51 AM • permalink

  99. #90 I think that you will find it is smaller booths that get in early.  A lot of these tend to be in blue collar areas, and thus tend to favour ALP.  Opposite in rural areas.

    In my electorate all the smaller booths are ALP. the big booth is solid Lib.  It takes the longest to count.  That said, my electorate will go ALP this time.

    Posted by entropy on 2007 11 24 at 04:52 AM • permalink

  100. kisdm001:

    I suspect the UN is one of those sort of organizations where the man at the top can make all the difference for the worse but none for the better.

    Only crooks,thieves, liars and panderers need apply.

    Posted by Grimmy on 2007 11 24 at 04:52 AM • permalink

  101. argh,  looks like the country is going to be in the hands of a pop star, a hard core commie and an ex-diplomat.

    Posted by darrinhV2 on 2007 11 24 at 04:53 AM • permalink

  102. #97, 98, 99: I wasn’t quite sure what to make of the theory, but in some cases it seems right, such as how Crossie said those who want change would be impatient for it.

    Of course, there’s always the varied work times that could skew any possible research into it.

    Posted by Ash_ on 2007 11 24 at 04:55 AM • permalink

  103. Peter Garret was popular?

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 04:56 AM • permalink

  104. 101 - Certainly a motley trio.

    Posted by Simon Darkshade on 2007 11 24 at 04:56 AM • permalink

  105. Oh well, at least Libs got a swing somewhere….Kevin Rudd’s seat...not popular with the neighbours?

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 04:57 AM • permalink

  106. It will be interesting to see how the media treat our new actu alp overlords.

    Posted by surfmaster on 2007 11 24 at 04:57 AM • permalink

  107. If Coalition loses I promise I will go to New Zealand.  Just kidding, I’ll go to New Zealand even if they win.  I booked that holidays months ago.

    Posted by Crossie on 2007 11 24 at 04:59 AM • permalink

  108. It would be a bit interesting if both the major contending personalities lost their home districts.

    Has that ever happened before?

    Posted by Grimmy on 2007 11 24 at 04:59 AM • permalink

  109. Wot about Snow Cone Tone aggressively questioning the Lib candidates whose seats appear to be in doubt - with only 10% counted? - lil pr*ck

    Posted by egg_ on 2007 11 24 at 05:00 AM • permalink

  110. Is the TV calling for Labor to lose any seats?

    Posted by Ash_ on 2007 11 24 at 05:00 AM • permalink

  111. #108 No, Grimmy, it hasn’t.

    But if that happened, I’d be hoping the Libs still win, because I don’t want Gillard as Prime Minister.

    Posted by Ash_ on 2007 11 24 at 05:01 AM • permalink

  112. RE #26 - what it all means.

    Some of the basics:

    We have a house of Reps, and a Senate, similar to the US model.

    The leader of the party that has the majority in the Reps becomes Prime Minister and leads the administration.

    The two main parties are the ALP, Australian Labor Party, similar to the AFL-CIO faction of the US Democrats, and the Liberal/National coalition, similar to the right wing faction of the US Democrats. The Greens are increasingly a 3rd force, and there are usually one or two independants, often the equivalent of the US Republicans.

    Voting is compulsory, and always on a weekend.

    The real difference is the preferential voting, where candidates are numbered in order of preference.

    This means that I can vote for the two senate candidates of the Liberty and Democracy party as 1 and 2, knowing they haven’t got a hope, then 3 and 4 for the Liberals, and not have my vote wasted. 

    Parties recommend that preferences flow certain ways based on pre-election deals - “we put you number 2, and you return the favour” basically.

    So if 3 out of 4 Greens preferences go to the ALP, the Greens get 80 votes, the ALP 300, the Libs 320, final result after “distribution of preferences” is ALP 300+60, Libs 320+20, giving victory to the ALP on preferences.

    With all the complication of the vote counting, it can take a while for the final result to be known. Fortunately, we have some really, really good counting programs, it’s the data entry and checking that takes the time.

    DISCLAIMER : I was chief architect of the system used to generate parts of the electoral system, automatically translating the Australian Electoral Commission’s Unified Modelling Language specification into code. Others did the majority of the really hard work, I just did the creativity and conceptual design.

    Posted by Zoe Brain on 2007 11 24 at 05:02 AM • permalink

  113. 101; According to update IX, an empty headed babe as well! Look on the bright side!

    Posted by dean martin on 2007 11 24 at 05:03 AM • permalink

  114. #74, it’s a well known and very common phenomenon called ingroup bias.  People tend to overestimate their own chances of a favourable outcome and underestimate that of others.  Group dynamics 101.

    Posted by alexs on 2007 11 24 at 05:03 AM • permalink

  115. Predictions of hot weather encouraged people to vote early which meant very long queues and long waiting times of up to an hour. Eleven people collapsed, one with a heart attack. Ambulances kept busy.

    Posted by SandiM on 2007 11 24 at 05:04 AM • permalink

  116. The Franbat’s definitely got a good head for radio ...

    Posted by egg_ on 2007 11 24 at 05:04 AM • permalink

  117. Fantastic! The country has collectively woken up and realised that it can’t be sold out for an extra $10 tax cut a week.

    Maybe now we can have a government in power which has a higher aim than staying in power and giving pissy tax breaks/bribes.

    I still can’t believe that Howard will lose his seat but here’s hoping.

    Eat crow Liberals. You have lost the respect of the Australian people and what happened in Lindsay is representative of the general moral corruption in your party.

    Look on the bright side; at least now Tim Blair and his disciples will have something to whine about!

    Posted by agile on 2007 11 24 at 05:05 AM • permalink

  118. #115 That’s certainly not good news. I was working a booth in La Trobe, and I noticed that at around 11:15 people just stopped coming.

    Posted by Ash_ on 2007 11 24 at 05:06 AM • permalink

  119. Polls closed in WA! This is where it gets interesting….

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 05:07 AM • permalink

  120. #117 - And the trolls arrive….

    Posted by Villeurbanne on 2007 11 24 at 05:07 AM • permalink

  121. #117 You’re a real grown-up, aren’t you agile?

    Posted by Ash_ on 2007 11 24 at 05:07 AM • permalink

  122. Hahaha, agile, good one. “Moral corruption”. Heh. For a minute I thought you were serious.

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 05:08 AM • permalink

  123. #8, MM

    I actually heard someone on Sky say, “It’s not over till the fat lady sings,” or some version of that.

    Posted by Janice on 2007 11 24 at 05:08 AM • permalink

  124. #120 They’re just the entertainment for this party.

    Posted by Ash_ on 2007 11 24 at 05:08 AM • permalink

  125. Hawke, Beattie already calling it for Labor per 7

    Posted by egg_ on 2007 11 24 at 05:08 AM • permalink

  126. Oooh look the first crowing troll. Wondered when it would show up.
    I think you will find either kevini breaks his pre election promises about being a fiscal conservitive or we will just go on making fun of lefties as they seethe and whine over Kevvi not being “one of them after all”.
    Either way it will be plenty of chuckles for Blairites.

    Posted by thefrollickingmole on 2007 11 24 at 05:08 AM • permalink

  127. Right, the weather forecast did it (big queues)!

    Agile, welcome, our first troll of the night! Should Labor win, are you going to be gracious in victory?

    Thought not.

    —Nick

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 05:09 AM • permalink

  128. #112; Now I know why I feel like an idiot on this blog. If you can understand that, your IQ is around 3000.

    Posted by dean martin on 2007 11 24 at 05:10 AM • permalink

  129. Kennett has just nailed Beattie on his appointment to High Commissioner in London. Beattie went red and started fiddling with his ear and tie, major ‘tells’.

    —Nick

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 05:10 AM • permalink

  130. Zoe:

    Thanks :) That preferencing thing will always be over my head. I prefer political wheeling dealing kept in the dark back rooms where it belongs.

    Mostly what I was asking after was a quick blerb about what each district represented in the pattern of the event as it gets talked about by the locals.

    Something along the lines of “Oh, there goes Billigongabongalongathong” (home of the really wacko envirotards and long held home of insane painters) to the Libs. How’d that happen?”

    Posted by Grimmy on 2007 11 24 at 05:11 AM • permalink

  131. Nick do you think the comments on this site have been gracious towards Labor?

    Just a question…

    Posted by agile on 2007 11 24 at 05:11 AM • permalink

  132. As was said earlier, if the 5% of the population who decide elections in Australia vote one way its a great tragedy, and we’re all terrible, terrible, selfish people. If they vote the other, its proof we’ve all woken up to the terrible problems of morality.(?)

    Meanwhile 95% voted exactly the same as they did before…

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 05:11 AM • permalink

  133. Zoe - good one!

    —Nick

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 05:12 AM • permalink

  134. As an American, I can’t say I’m happy about this.  We might have to face something like it.

    Those who think they are happy about it are in for a rude awakening.

    Posted by saltydog on 2007 11 24 at 05:12 AM • permalink

  135. Grimmy, try the ABC election guide - has blurbs on all the electorates:

    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/results/sop.htm#NSW

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 05:13 AM • permalink

  136. This is weird.  The AEC has a count in for Lingiari - which is gigantic and includes Alice Springs and the Cocos Islands - but none for Solomon which is basically just Darwin.  How do they work that?

    Posted by Janice on 2007 11 24 at 05:13 AM • permalink

  137. #114 -  What’s surprising is how much it persists here even when people are repeatedly faced with other people’s opposing estimates, which you’d think might make them re-assess their position. I’m watching Sky, and Brendan Nelson seems probably the least biased in terms of which results he emphasises, followed by a rought tie between Crosby and that Labor guy with the moustache.

    Posted by Behemoth on 2007 11 24 at 05:14 AM • permalink

  138. Oh geeze. Now I gotta study and read up. Why can’t I be spoon fed in easy doses like my doctor recommends?

    Posted by Grimmy on 2007 11 24 at 05:14 AM • permalink

  139. Yay, the strippers Tim promised us have arrived!!!!

    I hope you are as nimble as your name implies, “agile”?

    Posted by Pogria on 2007 11 24 at 05:15 AM • permalink

  140. #136 - Perhaps Lingiari votes were cast in those mobile booths they drive about and were just sitting there waiting to be counted. Not sure how those things work but I know they use them in north-west WA, too.

    Posted by Villeurbanne on 2007 11 24 at 05:15 AM • permalink

  141. Grimmy, for example here’s John Howard’s seat.

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 05:15 AM • permalink

  142. Agile - not particularly gracious towards certain individuals but no one has name called Labor voters generally.

    —Nick

    Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 05:16 AM • permalink

  143. #139 - I’d prefer “nubile”.

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 05:16 AM • permalink

  144. I been using Virtual Tally Room and trying to dig up regional info for educational purposes. Yours seems much more informational. Thanks.

    Posted by Grimmy on 2007 11 24 at 05:17 AM • permalink

  145. Virtual tally room is apolitical, without spin, and doesn’t call seats until they’re well done and dusted. However, it’s not too exciting.

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 05:19 AM • permalink

  146. What a shocking head Maxine McKew has.

    Posted by Villeurbanne on 2007 11 24 at 05:20 AM • permalink

  147. #28, Nick, the size of my queue is none of your- oh, wait.  I think that word may not mean what I think it means.  Never mind, then.  Thought it had something to do with Chinese hairstyles.

    Say, Tim, once your new overlords throw you out of your job, you’ll still do the blog, right?  I mean, think of all the extra time you’ll have available!  Unless, that is, they don’t have broadband in the concentration camps (but surely they’d never violate all the rules of civilization, would they?).  I hope you stashed all that lucre from the pledge drive where Labour can’t find it…

    Posted by Steve Skubinna on 2007 11 24 at 05:21 AM • permalink

  148. # 140, I’ll grant you that.  The ads re voting sites out bush have been in the paper for the last week or so.  But still, it’s nearly an hour since the polls closed here and still no count at all for Solomon.

    Posted by Janice on 2007 11 24 at 05:21 AM • permalink

  149. Well, short of some minor miracle in WA, it’s pretty much done and dusted…Hail Prime Minister Rudd, may he smite his enemies with great vengeance.

    And don’t forget to break every election promise to the luvvies. There’s a good boy.

    Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 05:22 AM • permalink

  150. More room on the new thread dudes.

    Posted by Pogria on 2007 11 24 at 05:23 AM • permalink

  151. #58 The Chairman would kick Beattie’s arse every time.

    Posted by Nilknarf Arbed on 2007 11 24 at 05:25 AM • permalink

  152. Snow Cone Tone’s repeated performances could be summed up as mugging any Liberal who looks like losing. It’s about as attractive as watching a feral cat savaging native fauna. At the end of his interview with Bob from Makin, the twisted smirk as he handed back to Kerry was something to behold. “How about that, guys? Did you see me tear the tail and legs off that Skink Lizard?”

    Posted by blogstrop on 2007 11 24 at 05:27 AM • permalink

  153. Obviously Howard didn’t crush quite enough dissent. Lesson learnt.

    Posted by Penguin on 2007 11 24 at 05:38 AM • permalink

  154. I don’t think they’ve picked up the seats in the east to make up for the West- let’s see what happens.

    Posted by Habib on 2007 11 24 at 05:39 AM • permalink

  155. 5.7% swing- is that going to be 16 seats?

    Posted by Habib on 2007 11 24 at 05:40 AM • permalink

  156. Habib, please have some of your classic invective on standby. I might need a laugh later on tonight.

    Posted by Penguin on 2007 11 24 at 05:44 AM • permalink

  157. Great victory Kevin.

    Bring on the Liberal knives and in-fighting.

    lol

    Posted by agile on 2007 11 24 at 05:52 AM • permalink

  158. Early results show a big swing against the ALP in my consituency of Swan. Most marginal seat at the last election looks like a loss to the KRudd machine.

    Posted by phil_b on 2007 11 24 at 06:14 AM • permalink

  159. Well, at least we’ll get to see what Peter Garrett meant when he said “we’ll change everything once we get in”......

    Posted by darrinhV2 on 2007 11 24 at 06:18 AM • permalink

  160. Wow…this room sure emptied out fast…

    Posted by agile on 2007 11 24 at 06:19 AM • permalink

  161. #160 Maybe it’s more that we all went to a different room. of course, maps escape you.

    Posted by Ash_ on 2007 11 24 at 06:22 AM • permalink

  162. Looks my electorate of Swan will be the only Coalition win against the ALP. Nice to know my neighbours are an island of commensense in this sea of fuckwhittery.

    Posted by phil_b on 2007 11 24 at 06:35 AM • permalink

  163. Red Kerry can hardly keep the smirk of his face, what a puke.

    Posted by darrinhV2 on 2007 11 24 at 07:01 AM • permalink

  164. Rudd won this election by small target politics and disguising himself as a Liberal.  Once the moonbats are off the leash - their silence was the price for the election win - Labor will work fast to sell off national sovereignty, set up more resentment industries to enforce ‘correct’ attitudes, restore moribund unionism and put the economy into a tail spin. Our commitment to democratically elected goverments in Iraq, Afghanistan and Israel will be withdrawn. Ghetto multiculturalism will be back on the agenda and the idea of being Australian will be further denigrated. Authoritarianism will be ramped up in the name of compassion and ‘social justice’ and our self-appointed elites will know, as ever, what is good for us.

    I would like to see this as a worst case scenario but remember Keating.

    God have mercy on us all.

    Posted by Inurbanus on 2007 11 24 at 07:29 AM • permalink

  165. I’ve spent the last couple of hours on teh phone to lefty friends, and I just want to cry.

    Posted by Nilknarf Arbed on 2007 11 24 at 07:42 AM • permalink

  166. How many weeks until we hear whispers of the GST being increased?

    I hope that Kevin’s sleeping in armour to protect his back.

    Posted by Nilknarf Arbed on 2007 11 24 at 07:47 AM • permalink

  167. So much for seven’s “not boring” coverage. Kochie and Hockey? Jiminy.

    Posted by Jefferson Skates on 2007 11 24 at 12:49 PM • permalink

  168. #28 et al
    Talking about poll queues, where I was in Blair we were hammered from 8am until 12:30am, didn’t even know what the time was for that period.
    The OIC of the booth said that he was surprised at the number of voters waiting before 8am.
    There wasn’t a rush before six, either.

    Posted by kae on 2007 11 24 at 06:42 PM • permalink

  169. #79
    Beattie has a lot to be sorry for.

    Posted by kae on 2007 11 24 at 06:57 PM • permalink

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