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OZ VOTES
Polls now closed in Tasmania, Victoria, and NSW; Andrew Bolt calls it for Labor on the basis of exit polls.
UPDATE. ABC’s Jim Middleton reports massive confidence among Laborites, gloom among Libs.
UPDATE II. Jackie Kelly on Seven’s Fun-O-Rama coverage appears to be wearing snails on her ears. Informative Seven graphic: “All 150 House of Representative seats are up for grabs.” Joe Hockey mentions police were called to a couple of booths in his North Sydney seat.
UPDATE III. Senator Helen Coonan on Nine: “It’s not looking good ... it is disappointing.” Wayne Swan: “What we may have tonight is the revolt of the pendulum.” Very loud cheering in background of Nine’s broadcast.
UPDATE IV. The early Green vote in NSW seems enormous; nobody has mentioned it as yet.
UPDATE V. Early swing against the government of 10% in Jackie Kelly’s old seat. Seven just deployed a Dancing Kevin graphic. ABC-Labor’s McKew leading in Bennelong after 3% of votes counted. The other ABC-Labor candidate, Mike Bailey, trailing narrowly in North Sydney.
UPDATE VI. Malcolm Turnbull said to be improving his vote in the fightin’ fields of Wentworth. Seven Labor pundit - little bald guy; missed his name - predicts Labor gain in NSW of 6-7 seats.
UPDATE VII. According to projections on Nine, Labor now needs nine more seats to win (instant update: just moved back to ten) (instant update II: now back to nine, then eight). Joe Hockey: “Watch Western Australia. Watch Western Australia.”
UPDATE VIII. Seven’s Koch now says Howard is “gone” in Bennelong - 5.5% of vote counted, according to ABC. “It’s an incredible concept to get your head around,” says Kerry O’Brien.
UPDATE IX. Nine now claiming Labor needs just four more seats for victory. ABC report very slow counts in Queensland and South Australia; chads? Mia Handshin ahead in Sturt!
At least we can have fun pointing out the Rudd reversals and forgotten non-core promises. I look forward (if Krudd wins) to watching the lefties going to vicious hate fits which pass for celebrations. Similarly, I’ll be enjoying the gnashing of teeth and wailing followed by the lefty exodus from Australia if Krudd loses.
I’m not going to throw the silver down the well and move in with the chickens just yet.
Posted by Simon Darkshade on 2007 11 24 at 03:30 AM • permalinkThis is the only poll that matters.
These early results come from outlying booths and may not be representative.
I think that it’s way too early to tell and this is too close to call.
We could be up all night.
The Postal votes still haven’t been counted
In fact, we might not know this result for weeks.
One thing for sure, tonight was a great result for the Greens with their primary vote above 10 per cent in some electorates and somewhat less in many others.
Posted by Margos Maid on 2007 11 24 at 03:32 AM • permalinkBeattie on 7 sees a trend with only one per cent counted and just about calls it for Labor!
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 03:36 AM • permalinkTanya Plibersek has stolen Jack Nicholson’s mouth as The Joker…
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 03:38 AM • permalinkIt’s New South Wales kicking the Libs in the bum....why, after re-electing the Iemma government, I dunno. Guess it must be a sense of humor or something?
#11 If Beattie wants to do that, I call Hunt for the Nationals…
LOL…
Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 03:40 AM • permalinkHunter, sorry. Got confused with Mike.
Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 03:41 AM • permalinkPeter Garrett receives glorious 15% swing.
Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 03:45 AM • permalinkGood grief - now Beattie and the Labs on 7 are convinced Howard’s lost his seat with only 100 votes counted
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 03:45 AM • permalinkWait...what the frag is happening in Franklin.
Anti-government swing seems to be mainly in NSW. Odd, since they have, hands down, the most incompetent ALP state government.
Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 03:50 AM • permalink#19 - Hawkie just dropped the word ‘shit’ into a sentence on Sky. Hope he isn’t driving tonight.
Posted by Villeurbanne on 2007 11 24 at 03:51 AM • permalinkMy mistake, Tasmania is swinging equally away from Coalition and ALP to....Greens.
Ewww..
Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 03:51 AM • permalinkDid anyone else have huge queues at the polling stations today?
-- Nick
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 03:54 AM • permalinkBeattie being an absolute ass on 7. No mic contact for Anna Coren in live cross from Brisbane makes her look intelligent.
-- Nick
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 03:56 AM • permalinkShadow SomethingOrOther Stephen Smith is predicting a four seat majority to the ALP.
Posted by Villeurbanne on 2007 11 24 at 03:58 AM • permalinkWe had seven people at the embassy in Paris when I went to vote the other day and this seemed a lot for a workday afternoon.
Posted by Villeurbanne on 2007 11 24 at 03:59 AM • permalink31 Phil - same at 11am on the Gold Coast too. Had one person say she’d come over from another station because there was a 35 min queue at another.
-- Nick
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 03:59 AM • permalink#33 - Voting is compulsory in Australia so voter turn out is always about the same.
Posted by Villeurbanne on 2007 11 24 at 04:00 AM • permalinkIve got a bad feeling that it will be a labour landslide due to green prefrences.
Mind you it will be fun to see Lab trying to justify its multitude of backflips after the election.Posted by thefrollickingmole on 2007 11 24 at 04:02 AM • permalink37 - but we’ve never seen queues like this before. I know the Gold Coast is growing quickly - in fact we live in the fastest growing district in Australia - but it was weird.
-- Nick
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:02 AM • permalinkPretty terrible results for the Coalition currently, but Queensland and WA (expected to be their strongest results) haven’t come in yet.
Still, if you don’t win NSW, you don’t win the election.
Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 04:03 AM • permalinkThey’ve plugged Coren’s mic in now - and the polls have just closed in Queensland #chug!#
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:05 AM • permalink7 Qld news reporting on overnight violence at Indooroopilly where yobs armed with stanley knives cut down Liberal banners and beat up 2 Lib workers
-- Nick
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:07 AM • permalink#33, Grimmy,
My nearest polling booth was very busy, 10-minute queue, but that’s normal for that booth. My husband went to another booth a few streets away earlier in the day and walked right in.
We have compulsory voting here in Oz. We are served with fines if we don’t show up.
Our kids voted at their convenience. I don’t know their choices or my husband’s, and they don’t know mine. Democracy as she should be.
I’ll be liveblogging at the DD if anyone gives a shit, at least until I fall out of the chair due to gin.
Anyone who takes notice of early indications, I’m open for another wager.
I still reckon I’m going to have to call on the services of Rocco and Moose to collect from Centrebet.
Tasmanians. Giving Greens 13% of the vote. Bah, I say. Bah.
Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 04:14 AM • permalink7’s coverage is using the phrase ‘knife edge’ a lot. Bugger - we should have made it chuggable!
-- Nick
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:16 AM • permalinkLet’s not hand the keys over yet. Remember 1969 and Don’s Party!
Remember 1977 as well. Labor was supremely confident going into that election; Fraser was finally going to get his comeuppance and King Gough would be back on the throne. Early numbers favoured them, but in the end it didn’t quite work out that way.Posted by SwinishCapitalist on 2007 11 24 at 04:19 AM • permalinkWhoever’s winning it’s time for a G&T.
By the way, I saw Rescue Dawn today. Recommended.Posted by SwinishCapitalist on 2007 11 24 at 04:20 AM • permalinkCast your vote now:
Who would win in a punch up between Kennett and Beattie?
The pair are exchanging a couple or sharp words.
-- Nora
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:22 AM • permalink60 - it’s Martin and Oakes are the very reasons why we’re watching 7 instead.
-- Nick
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:26 AM • permalinkBoothby is swinging 4.5% to ditzy Nicole Cornes. Unbelievable.
Posted by Villeurbanne on 2007 11 24 at 04:27 AM • permalink64 Ash - the answer appears to be yes.
-- Nick
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:29 AM • permalinkDon’t get too excited by the various tv station predictions. There’s a HUGE variance between the channel 9, ABC and Sky predictions.
Posted by Young and Free on 2007 11 24 at 04:30 AM • permalinkIt shits me no end, that people who are disenchanted with both major parties, choose to vote Green.
If you ever want to see exciting elections, watch Israel, where a wrong vote could literally cost you your home or your life. Moreover, a few people can get together, form a party and in a year have half the country voting for them.
Our political system is due for overhaul. Starting with the abolition of compulsory voting.
In America, people have bumper stickers saying “I [something] and I vote” to warn politicians. In this country, people also have such stickers e.g., “I watch the ABC and I vote” or “I shoot and I vote” however they might as well trade it in for one which says “I am over 18 and I vote”.
Alternatively “I am an uneducated, braindead moron who takes too many drugs… And I vote.”
Seriously open to brainwashing [glares at young people].
#56
You may be right, but being word perfect might be the only thing to keep us out of the
Comrade Academician Hardy Harsh Regime Re-education Camp.
Whilst dear Marieke can sniff out a crypto-socialist from a mile away, I understand she likes a catchy tune.Hahaha....
And yeah, Dan Lewis, never understood the rationale for compulsory voting.
Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 04:33 AM • permalinkAlack, alas, those hicks from my hometown seem to have switched Page over to the Dark Side.
Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 04:34 AM • permalinkHere’s what I don’t understand - why do the politicians from each side consistently view their own party as having a better shot? Obviously DURING the election it’s important to project confidence, but when polls have closed, they still talk about the results as if the impression of confidence can influence the outcome. It’s like they’re still trying to convince themselves, even though they’re aware that both people are looking at the same numbers, and there’ll be a definite answer soon enough. Weird.
70 Crossie - indeed, and Kochie and Mel are actually asking some good basic questions.
-- Nick
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:36 AM • permalinkI dunno, I think even I wouldn’t go in and say, “I’m going to lose, baby!”
Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 04:36 AM • permalinkKennett to floor Beattie. Kennett’s ex-Army, he has the edge with the fighting skills I’d say.
Posted by SwinishCapitalist on 2007 11 24 at 04:37 AM • permalinkGood god, McKew is thinking of fronting the tally room as if she’s going to be the effing PM!
-- Nick
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:39 AM • permalink“It’s an incredible concept to get your head around,” says Kerry O’Brien.
Fuck off Kerry, the seat had been redistributed into a marginal. A uniform swing of 2% was enough to make it toast.
Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 04:43 AM • permalinkHow many different ways can they find to pronounce ‘Eden-Monaro’?
Posted by Villeurbanne on 2007 11 24 at 04:44 AM • permalinkBeattie is an arrogant shit. He’s called the whole thing to Labor.
Weazel rat bastard.
-- Nora
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 04:45 AM • permalinkCompulsory voting with a fine if you don’t show? Might as well lower the voting age to 6, imho.
Posted by dean martin on 2007 11 24 at 04:45 AM • permalinkI suppose Howard will be embarrassed at losing his seat. But he will be better off. As with all former PMs of either persuasion lucrative directorships and consultancies will be offered. Book deals with big advances. He’ll get a package ten time the size of the PM’s measly salary.
Posted by walterplinge on 2007 11 24 at 04:48 AM • permalink#92 - Howard should go international. I’d love to see Howard as UN Sec Gen.
Posted by Villeurbanne on 2007 11 24 at 04:49 AM • permalinkAsh, I doubt that that idea holds water in my electorate - Stephen Smith, rock solid safe ALP, and there was a queue for the first time I can remember when I voted at 9am.
Mind you, I DO want change, as in seeing Smiffy gone.Posted by SwinishCapitalist on 2007 11 24 at 04:51 AM • permalink#90 I think that you will find it is smaller booths that get in early. A lot of these tend to be in blue collar areas, and thus tend to favour ALP. Opposite in rural areas.
In my electorate all the smaller booths are ALP. the big booth is solid Lib. It takes the longest to count. That said, my electorate will go ALP this time.
Oh well, at least Libs got a swing somewhere....Kevin Rudd’s seat...not popular with the neighbours?
Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 04:57 AM • permalinkIt will be interesting to see how the media treat our new
actualp overlords.Posted by surfmaster on 2007 11 24 at 04:57 AM • permalinkRE #26 - what it all means.
Some of the basics:
We have a house of Reps, and a Senate, similar to the US model.
The leader of the party that has the majority in the Reps becomes Prime Minister and leads the administration.
The two main parties are the ALP, Australian Labor Party, similar to the AFL-CIO faction of the US Democrats, and the Liberal/National coalition, similar to the right wing faction of the US Democrats. The Greens are increasingly a 3rd force, and there are usually one or two independants, often the equivalent of the US Republicans.
Voting is compulsory, and always on a weekend.
The real difference is the preferential voting, where candidates are numbered in order of preference.
This means that I can vote for the two senate candidates of the Liberty and Democracy party as 1 and 2, knowing they haven’t got a hope, then 3 and 4 for the Liberals, and not have my vote wasted.
Parties recommend that preferences flow certain ways based on pre-election deals - “we put you number 2, and you return the favour” basically.
So if 3 out of 4 Greens preferences go to the ALP, the Greens get 80 votes, the ALP 300, the Libs 320, final result after “distribution of preferences” is ALP 300+60, Libs 320+20, giving victory to the ALP on preferences.
With all the complication of the vote counting, it can take a while for the final result to be known. Fortunately, we have some really, really good counting programs, it’s the data entry and checking that takes the time.
DISCLAIMER : I was chief architect of the system used to generate parts of the electoral system, automatically translating the Australian Electoral Commission’s Unified Modelling Language specification into code. Others did the majority of the really hard work, I just did the creativity and conceptual design.
101; According to update IX, an empty headed babe as well! Look on the bright side!
Posted by dean martin on 2007 11 24 at 05:03 AM • permalinkFantastic! The country has collectively woken up and realised that it can’t be sold out for an extra $10 tax cut a week.
Maybe now we can have a government in power which has a higher aim than staying in power and giving pissy tax breaks/bribes.
I still can’t believe that Howard will lose his seat but here’s hoping.
Eat crow Liberals. You have lost the respect of the Australian people and what happened in Lindsay is representative of the general moral corruption in your party.
Look on the bright side; at least now Tim Blair and his disciples will have something to whine about!
Polls closed in WA! This is where it gets interesting....
Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 05:07 AM • permalinkHahaha, agile, good one. “Moral corruption”. Heh. For a minute I thought you were serious.
Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 05:08 AM • permalinkOooh look the first crowing troll. Wondered when it would show up.
I think you will find either kevini breaks his pre election promises about being a fiscal conservitive or we will just go on making fun of lefties as they seethe and whine over Kevvi not being “one of them after all”.
Either way it will be plenty of chuckles for Blairites.Posted by thefrollickingmole on 2007 11 24 at 05:08 AM • permalinkRight, the weather forecast did it (big queues)!
Agile, welcome, our first troll of the night! Should Labor win, are you going to be gracious in victory?
Thought not.
-- Nick
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 05:09 AM • permalink#112; Now I know why I feel like an idiot on this blog. If you can understand that, your IQ is around 3000.
Posted by dean martin on 2007 11 24 at 05:10 AM • permalinkKennett has just nailed Beattie on his appointment to High Commissioner in London. Beattie went red and started fiddling with his ear and tie, major ‘tells’.
-- Nick
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 05:10 AM • permalinkZoe:
Thanks :) That preferencing thing will always be over my head. I prefer political wheeling dealing kept in the dark back rooms where it belongs.
Mostly what I was asking after was a quick blerb about what each district represented in the pattern of the event as it gets talked about by the locals.
Something along the lines of “Oh, there goes Billigongabongalongathong” (home of the really wacko envirotards and long held home of insane painters) to the Libs. How’d that happen?”
As was said earlier, if the 5% of the population who decide elections in Australia vote one way its a great tragedy, and we’re all terrible, terrible, selfish people. If they vote the other, its proof we’ve all woken up to the terrible problems of morality.(?)
Meanwhile 95% voted exactly the same as they did before…
Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 05:11 AM • permalinkGrimmy, try the ABC election guide - has blurbs on all the electorates:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/results/sop.htm#NSW
Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 05:13 AM • permalink#114 - What’s surprising is how much it persists here even when people are repeatedly faced with other people’s opposing estimates, which you’d think might make them re-assess their position. I’m watching Sky, and Brendan Nelson seems probably the least biased in terms of which results he emphasises, followed by a rought tie between Crosby and that Labor guy with the moustache.
#136 - Perhaps Lingiari votes were cast in those mobile booths they drive about and were just sitting there waiting to be counted. Not sure how those things work but I know they use them in north-west WA, too.
Posted by Villeurbanne on 2007 11 24 at 05:15 AM • permalinkGrimmy, for example here’s John Howard’s seat.
Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 05:15 AM • permalinkAgile - not particularly gracious towards certain individuals but no one has name called Labor voters generally.
-- Nick
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2007 11 24 at 05:16 AM • permalinkI been using Virtual Tally Room and trying to dig up regional info for educational purposes. Yours seems much more informational. Thanks.
Virtual tally room is apolitical, without spin, and doesn’t call seats until they’re well done and dusted. However, it’s not too exciting.
Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 05:19 AM • permalink#28, Nick, the size of my queue is none of your- oh, wait. I think that word may not mean what I think it means. Never mind, then. Thought it had something to do with Chinese hairstyles.
Say, Tim, once your new overlords throw you out of your job, you’ll still do the blog, right? I mean, think of all the extra time you’ll have available! Unless, that is, they don’t have broadband in the concentration camps (but surely they’d never violate all the rules of civilization, would they?). I hope you stashed all that lucre from the pledge drive where Labour can’t find it…
Posted by Steve Skubinna on 2007 11 24 at 05:21 AM • permalinkWell, short of some minor miracle in WA, it’s pretty much done and dusted...Hail Prime Minister Rudd, may he smite his enemies with great vengeance.
And don’t forget to break every election promise to the luvvies. There’s a good boy.
Posted by Quentin George on 2007 11 24 at 05:22 AM • permalink#58 The Chairman would kick Beattie’s arse every time.
Posted by Nilknarf Arbed on 2007 11 24 at 05:25 AM • permalinkSnow Cone Tone’s repeated performances could be summed up as mugging any Liberal who looks like losing. It’s about as attractive as watching a feral cat savaging native fauna. At the end of his interview with Bob from Makin, the twisted smirk as he handed back to Kerry was something to behold. “How about that, guys? Did you see me tear the tail and legs off that Skink Lizard?”
Rudd won this election by small target politics and disguising himself as a Liberal. Once the moonbats are off the leash - their silence was the price for the election win - Labor will work fast to sell off national sovereignty, set up more resentment industries to enforce ‘correct’ attitudes, restore moribund unionism and put the economy into a tail spin. Our commitment to democratically elected goverments in Iraq, Afghanistan and Israel will be withdrawn. Ghetto multiculturalism will be back on the agenda and the idea of being Australian will be further denigrated. Authoritarianism will be ramped up in the name of compassion and ‘social justice’ and our self-appointed elites will know, as ever, what is good for us.
I would like to see this as a worst case scenario but remember Keating.
God have mercy on us all.
I’ve spent the last couple of hours on teh phone to lefty friends, and I just want to cry.
Posted by Nilknarf Arbed on 2007 11 24 at 07:42 AM • permalinkHow many weeks until we hear whispers of the GST being increased?
I hope that Kevin’s sleeping in armour to protect his back.
Posted by Nilknarf Arbed on 2007 11 24 at 07:47 AM • permalinkSo much for seven’s “not boring” coverage. Kochie and Hockey? Jiminy.
Posted by Jefferson Skates on 2007 11 24 at 12:49 PM • permalink
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I think “crap” is the appropriate word, is it not?