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EVENTS LOOM

The SMH’s Paul McGeough:

As Monday’s third anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq looms, officials in Washington are conceding the deepening of the security and political crisis with more frank acknowledgements of the risk of civil war.

Also looming: the third anniversary of McGeough’s first civil war prediction, on March 27. Let’s celebrate as Irishman McGeough would, with Guinness and raw pertayters. In rebuttal, here’s an email from my mate Arnaud Ng, currently serving at Phoenix Base in Baghdad:

We have just come through a rather tense period, but the security forces performed admirably. We have had Sunni troops defending Shia mosques and Shia police protecting Sunni neighbourhoods. The violence has actually been in line with trends over the last few months, and no civil war in sight. Northern Ireland is more sectarian than this place.

The only people who seem to have lost both their grip on reality and their nerve are the western media. The Arab news does not even talk of civil war. ABC, CBS, CNN blast the U.S. audience incessantly with booming pronouncements of impending civil war, fire and brimstone, and are then surprised to find that in polls 75% of U.S. citizens think that a civil war is coming.

Anyway, thought I would just drop a line and say hello and just confirm Baghdad is not burning around my ears. Will be back in Sydney for some R&R in April.

Talk to you soon,

Arnaud

We might have to arrange an evening of expensive wine. Or Arnaud’s preferred beer. If any readers would like to catch up during that R&R visit, send me a note and we’ll nominate a pub. Support the troops!

Posted by Tim B. on 03/16/2006 at 11:54 AM
  1. “Operation Swarmer” is underway near Samarra.
    101ST Airborne is involved.

    Abdul the bombmaker gets a “Screaming Eagle” with his morning coffee! Sweet.

    God’s speed to all.

    Posted by yojimbo on 2006 03 16 at 12:02 PM • permalink

  2. Well, obviously the man is a Bushitler/HoWARMONGERd dupe, and “R&R in April” is a face-saving codeword for a panic-stricken retreat worse than Dunkirk, cuz Dunkirk didn’t take a whole six weeks to organize…

    or, um, the press is jacking us again…

    Posted by richard mcenroe on 2006 03 16 at 12:04 PM • permalink

  3. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Peter Pace has been promoted by McGeough to “officials in Washington.” A second paycheck is due.

    Posted by chinesearithmetic on 2006 03 16 at 12:09 PM • permalink

  4. I thought that the MSM were reporting the two weeks ago that the “golden mosque” bombing was the start of the civil war and not that it showed that the civil war was (again) just around the corner? And I’m assuming that Arnaud doesn’t rely on Iraqi stringers to do his reporting for him!

    Posted by andycanuck on 2006 03 16 at 12:49 PM • permalink

  5. You know, I’ve always assumed that Iraq would someday have a rather nasty civil war.  In fact, I’ve assumed that since the first Gulf War.  The Sunni situation in Iraq was simply too precarious to last for more than a few more decades.

    Posted by PatP on 2006 03 16 at 12:53 PM • permalink

  6. Wish I could make the date, Tim, but it’s a little difficult at the moment, living on the other side of the world as I do.

    Just dropped a tenner into your PayPal account - please buy some beers for Arnaud and tell him thanks for his service, and for sending us real info to counteract the MSM lies.  We Americans appreciate our friends.

    Y’all have fun now!  ;-p

    Posted by Barbara Skolaut on 2006 03 16 at 01:37 PM • permalink

  7. Here’s my tenner. Will that cover $4.20 for a pie?

    Posted by chinesearithmetic on 2006 03 16 at 03:32 PM • permalink

  8. But stay away from the sandwiches.

    Posted by andycanuck on 2006 03 16 at 04:05 PM • permalink

  9. Re the progressive western media, you have to keep asking, which side are these people on? Even if you think that it could have been a mistake to go in (and I am not saying it was a mistake), now we are there we have to see it through and get the best possible result for the Iraqis who are not dead set on blowing other people up. Who do they think are the good guys in Iraq? Are they actually rooting for the terrorists who would like to see a civil war? Do they really want us to LOSE? To cut and run, a la Vietnam (where the battle was won on the ground and lost on the campuses of the US).

    Posted by Rafe on 2006 03 16 at 04:14 PM • permalink

  10. The ‘liberals’ want Victory over the conservatives at any cost.

    Posted by rog on 2006 03 16 at 04:52 PM • permalink

  11. I feel Saddam, OBL and other cronies are betting that the US will crumble under the weight of public opinion, its a matter of patience.

    Posted by rog on 2006 03 16 at 04:54 PM • permalink

  12. Why are they polling Americans about the likelihood of a civil war? Why not poll the Iraqis?!

    Posted by Ian Deans on 2006 03 16 at 04:57 PM • permalink

  13. I remain amazed that there is no civil war in Iraq.  Could it be that the Iraqis are absolutely sick to death of war, and just want to build up their poor country so they can join the rest of the 21st century?  Gosh, what a concept.

    Posted by RebeccaH on 2006 03 16 at 05:19 PM • permalink

  14. Add “Impending Civil War” to the list of articles of faith for the left.

    Posted by lingus4 on 2006 03 16 at 05:58 PM • permalink

  15. Incidentally, am I imagining it or were there plenty of claims back in late 2001/early 2002 that there’s no point to introducing democracy to Afghanistan because war was a fact of life over there and they’d just find some other reason to go at each others’ throats once the Taliban were gone?

    Posted by PW on 2006 03 16 at 06:19 PM • permalink

  16. July this year will be the second anniversary of the greatest scoop of the war.I hope by then McGeough and Fairfax will let us know what’s happening with the case of the six(or was it seven) prisoners he claimed were murdered by Iyad Allawi.

    Posted by David D on 2006 03 16 at 06:25 PM • permalink

  17. That’s ok, McGeough just needs to change his definition of “Civil War”

    TONY JONES: Even real sceptics, more than sceptics, deep critics of the invasion, like Robert Fisk however, are saying that Iraq has never had a civil war before and in spite of the attempts to make one happen it won’t in the end. Do you think that’s right?

    PAUL McGEOUGH:  The terminology is - we get bogged down in the terminology from time to time. Whether it’s a formal civil war or not. Whether you can tick all the boxes and say, “Yes, that’s a civil war,” is effectively a moot point in terms of what’s happening here.

    maybe better never than late line interview

    Posted by duncanm on 2006 03 16 at 06:28 PM • permalink

  18. I would love to buy him a beer - count me in!

    Posted by knuckleheadwatch on 2006 03 16 at 07:10 PM • permalink

  19. What a great guy! What an invaluable perspective…a perspective that actually means something!
    I hope Sydney treats him right when he gets here!
    Thank you for posting gems like this Tim!!

    Posted by Brian on 2006 03 16 at 07:17 PM • permalink

  20. More amazing tales from the bloghead front. And what front! Support the troops? Why? I don’t agree they should be there, I was one of the vast majority that said they shouldn’t go in the first place.

    Presumably these warriors have free wills so if they choose to go there and folow orders, to kill or be killed, to defend their way of life, to spread democracy, to root out terrorism at its source, to blah blah blah, well that’s their choice, and good luck to them. Hope for their little kiddies’ sake that they come home safe but why would I want to support them?

    Granted, the grunts didn’t start this disgusting war, their superiors did. But responsibility for its conduct, for individual acts, goes right down the chain of command to every soldier who is just “following orders”.

    A query for all you blogsheep of faith, is there any get out of hell clause for that famous direct order, thou shalt not kill?

    Posted by Miranda Divide on 2006 03 16 at 08:36 PM • permalink

  21. Miranda Divide
    Then bugger off to where you arent protected by a profesional, all voulenteer army then. Cuba would be nice this time of year?
    Silly person.

    Posted by thefrollickingmole on 2006 03 16 at 08:47 PM • permalink

  22. As an accredited but non-practising professional in Semitic Languages, I hasten to remind Miranda Divide (and any others labouring under the misapprehension) that the Commandment is correctly translated as “Thou shalt not murder”.

    The Hebrew “ratsach” means murder, “horeg” means kill.

    I have no doubt that this distinction will fail to persuade you that sometimes it is necessary to kill, even for the most devout followers of Mosaic Law.

    Posted by MentalFloss on 2006 03 16 at 09:00 PM • permalink

  23. Another interesting bit of Mosiac lore: burglary is considered less of a sin than robbery.

    Anyone care to hazard a guess as to why (and why it is pertinent to this thread)?

    Posted by MentalFloss on 2006 03 16 at 09:08 PM • permalink

  24. #8 Rafe - the answer to all your questions is “yes.”

    Posted by Barbara Skolaut on 2006 03 16 at 09:17 PM • permalink

  25. The “vast majority” said they shouldn’t go? - got any proof of this vast majority saying this at the time?

    Posted by attilathepun on 2006 03 16 at 09:22 PM • permalink

  26. Miranda you dickhead. I’m just glad my old man and his mates didn’t read your bible when they were outmanned 10/1 by Japs on the Kokoda Track. Wouldn’t have been any bibles around for you to misinterpret. In fact, there wouldn’t be any you. But then, your type would be right at home with a brutal imperialistic tyranny.

    Posted by slatts on 2006 03 16 at 09:24 PM • permalink

  27. Would Miranda please point out for this sheeple:

    What “vast majority that said [the troops] shouldn’t go in the first place?

    Vast majority of whom?

    Your garden club? Greenpeace? International ANSWER? Local Stalinist/Mao/Pol Pot/Saddam Hussein chapter? A quorum of Pat Buchanan, Michael Moore and yourself?

    Please enlighten me.

    Yours faithfully.

    Posted by Forbes on 2006 03 16 at 09:39 PM • permalink

  28. #27 Forbes;

    Miranda is another one who can say with a straight face, “But nobody *I* know voted for Howard!”

    And not understand why it’s amusing.

    Posted by steveH on 2006 03 16 at 09:54 PM • permalink

  29. Philip Adams and Michael Moore are a vast majority

    Posted by Margos Maid on 2006 03 16 at 09:57 PM • permalink

  30. So Divide thinks that individual soldiers are responsible for their actions? Well, so do I! But I’m curious to know if it applies this sort of thinking to the chaps on the other side of this conflict.

    You know the sort, the bomb-weilding, head-chopping, cartoon-protesting Islamist sort of chap? For some reason these guys seem to always get a free pass by our comrades on the left.

    Posted by Scott W on 2006 03 16 at 10:04 PM • permalink

  31. Tim, I just dropped beer money for you and Arnaud.  Glad to hear things are going well in Baghdad, and especially from Aussie troops.

    So drink a beer, and then piss in Miranda’s ear!

    Posted by The_Real_JeffS on 2006 03 16 at 10:32 PM • permalink

  32. #29 Philip Adams and Michael Moore are a vast majority

    Actually, a vast wasteland would be a better description!

    Posted by rinardman on 2006 03 16 at 10:54 PM • permalink

  33. The military clearly have no idea what is going on in Iraq. Why, only the other day Brigadier Paul Symon, commander of all Australian troops there, said that mosque bombings notwithstanding, the insurgents were running out of ideas and steam.
    When a multi-award-winning journalist has spent three whole years, week in and week out, declaring the coalition effort a failure, it’s almost beyond belief that some upstart general can come along and ... outright contradict him. I mean, do these generals ever leave their hotel rooms?

    Posted by arrowhead ripper on 2006 03 17 at 12:13 AM • permalink

  34. Philip Adams and Michael Moore are a vast majority

    And whether you mean by mass or by volume, it’s true either way.

    Posted by jic on 2006 03 17 at 12:19 AM • permalink

  35. Philip Adams and Michael Moore are a vast majority

    Nah, more like the Great Unwashed…

    Posted by richard mcenroe on 2006 03 17 at 01:02 AM • permalink

  36. Habib just got back from Canberra, which, for a RWDB, is at least as dangerous as working down a street on Fallujah wearing a “Mohammed Sux Dead Dingoes’ Dongers” T-Shirt.

    Anybody want to put money on the bar at the Brekky Creek hotel?

    Posted by murph on 2006 03 17 at 01:22 AM • permalink

  37. working=>walking..doh!

    Posted by murph on 2006 03 17 at 01:23 AM • permalink

  38. Maybe Miranda can volunteer to take the place of one of the three surviving Christian Peacemakers, or at least join that organization and do her bit overseas? Or is she a chicken dove?

    Posted by andycanuck on 2006 03 17 at 02:19 AM • permalink

  39. #23, MentalFloss

    Why is burglary considered less of a sin than robbery?

    Umm. Because robbers use force against people but burglars only use force against doors and/or windows?  And if, having used force against doors and/or windows, a burglar comes across a person inside the house and uses force against him or her the burglar becomes, by definition, a robber?

    Why is this pertinent to this thread?

    Mmm. Because it’s one thing for a journalist to make a mistaken prediction but when said journalist continues in the same vein despite all evidence to the contrary he reveals himself as a lying propagandist?

    How did I do?

    Posted by Janice on 2006 03 17 at 05:18 AM • permalink

  40. OO-er! A Moronda Deride drive-by trolling.

    I like these, they are fun!

    ‘More amazing tales from the bloghead front.’
    Comment: Yup, it consistently astounds Moronda that people think she is a cretin do not all agree with her. She is so reasonable, and knowledgeable - just ask her! Can’t we all just get along?

    And what front!
    Comment: Moronda has problems with ‘front’. It is the frontal lobotomy she had talking.

    Support the troops? Why?
    Comment: It is all about Moronda, folks. Screw those people who get murdered, raped, tortured, blown up, maimed etc etc. They deserve it for being capitalist swine! And as for human rights for little brown people, why, bugger the lot of them! Moronda the leftie is both bigoted and racist to her marrow-bones. Why should she support troops bringing the fruits of the Enlightenment that she enjoys to all those untermenschen?

    I don’t agree they should be there, I was one of the vast majority that said they shouldn’t go in the first place.
    Comment: This is the save vast majority that, umm, voted Howard in to office for the past decade…
    But LO and BEHOLD, Moronda is miffed. She did not like it so it should not happen. Screaming racists like Moronda do not like it when whities are sent to liberate little brown people from the national socialist dictators she thinks they deserve.

    Presumably these warriors have free wills so if they choose to go there and folow orders, to kill or be killed, to defend their way of life, to spread democracy, to root out terrorism at its source, to blah blah blah, well that’s their choice, and good luck to them.
    Comment: But Moronda will quietly accept the same things, like democracy and human rights… it is just that she thinks Arabs should not have them. Nor black people too, probably. Nope. Moronda deserves them, but screw the darkies!

    Hope for their little kiddies’ sake that they come home safe but why would I want to support them?
    Comment: Whereupon the little kiddies, who have far more of a sense of right or wrong than Moronda has, will learn that daddy has been stopping bad people from hurting innocent ones.
    This concept - it is called ‘good’ - is light years beyond the intellectual capacity of Moronda to comprehend.

    Granted, the grunts didn’t start this disgusting war, their superiors did.
    Comment: Damn those eviol superiors! Didn’t we TELL everyone not to put Osam bin Laden, Noordin Top and Amrozi in charge of the Australian Defence forces and US military?
    Planet Earth to Moronda, they started it, we are merely finishing it.
    Another concept it will be unable to understand.

    But responsibility for its conduct, for individual acts, goes right down the chain of command to every soldier who is just “following orders”.
    Comment: Read… oh sorry, I forgot Moronda’s intellectual issues. Assuming you have friends and not just strangers who follow you around pointing and laughing, get a friend to read Michael Walzer’s ‘Just and Unjust War’ to you. It is a little more advanced than See Spot Run, and I know you find that See Spot Run is terribly hard, but just try. There is a good little Moronda… stop whining, I know it is hard, but before opining, one usually should have a vague clue as to what the word-thingies squirting, dysentery-like, from your mouth mean.

    A query for all you blogsheep of faith, is there any get out of hell clause for that famous direct order, thou shalt not kill?

    Comment: BWAHAHAHAHA
    Oh, Moronda, my dear, dear child, secular intellectual cripples should never quote the Bible:

    For everything there is a season,
    And a time for every matter under heaven:
    A time to be born, and a time to die;
    A time to plant, and a time to pluck up what is planted;
    A time to kill, and a time to heal;
    A time to break down, and a time to build up;
    A time to weep, and a time to laugh;
    A time to mourn, and a time to dance;
    A time to throw away stones, And a time to gather stones together;
    A time to embrace, And a time to refrain from embracing;
    A time to seek, and a time to lose;
    A time to keep, and a time to throw away;
    A time to tear, and a time to sew;
    A time to keep silence, and a time to speak;
    A time to love, and a time to hate,
    A time for war, and a time for peace.
    Ecclesiastes 3: 1-8


    Well, THAT was fun!
    <Gazes about at splattered troll.>

    Did I leave any bit unsquelched?

    MarkL
    Canberra

    It is a time for war.

    Posted by MarkL on 2006 03 17 at 05:31 AM • permalink

  41. Why would you want to support them Miranda?
    Why would we would we be interested in your opinion anyway?

    Posted by crash on 2006 03 17 at 07:42 AM • permalink

  42. “There is no civil war in Iraq….There. Is. No. Civil. War. In. Iraq.”

    - Chalabi, Dateline, March, 2006 (my punctuation, he had to spell it out to Negus)

    Posted by LeftieLatteLover on 2006 03 17 at 08:54 AM • permalink

  43. Ralph Peters has an important piece in the NY Post this morning: THE GANGS OF BAGHDAD. Ralph and I often part company on tactics and strategy, but I respect his opinions and he is an honest, informed and trustworthy observer of events on the ground.

    There will be no civil war. Iraqis want the good life and are smart enough to know which road leads there. Deep within their genetic memory are the remnants of a great civilization. I believe they have the right stuff.

    In the run-up to the invasion, when predictions of doom and gloom were coming from all sides, I saw a different picture. News from Iraq was sparse, but telling. The value of luxury homes in Baghdad sky rocketed; new up-scale shops were springing up along the city’s equivalent to the Miracle Mile; activity in the shabby, pathetic stock exchange surged. I thought at the time, these are not people hunkering down, preparing to fight to the death for Saddam Hussein; these are people getting ready to welcome the world back in. I was optimistic then and I remain optimistic now. My faith is in the Iraqi people.

    Posted by Kyda Sylvester on 2006 03 17 at 12:01 PM • permalink

  44. KS 43

    My faith is in the Iraqi people.

    Right this moment, going by the crap I’m hearing on the radio about new polling data, I’ve got a fuckload more faith in the Iraqis and in my fellow Americans.  Way it looks right now is, we’ll be bailing out LONG before the job is done.  Hopefully I’m very wrong.  Goodness knows there’s precedent for that.

    Posted by Stoop Davy Dave on 2006 03 17 at 04:18 PM • permalink

  45. That, Stoop, is why my faith is in the Iraqi people. Our fellow Americans, as they—and even sometimes, we—prove time and time again, are narcissistic, colossal pains in the ass. I also have faith that George Bush will hang tough. We’ll see.

    Posted by Kyda Sylvester on 2006 03 17 at 04:58 PM • permalink

  46. me 44 PIMF: “fuckload more faith in the Iraqis AND in my fellow Americans”
    duh, oops, should be
    “fuckload more faith in the Iraqis THAN in my fellow feckless narcissistic pain-in-the-ass summer-soldiering Americans.”

    And yeah, GWB hanging tough is a given, but the next prex, be he D or R, I ain’t so sure about.  If these scrofulous polls are still reading the same way in 2008, we’ll get a result that lives down to my expectations.  And then I’ll come here to bitch about it.  Sigh.

    Posted by Stoop Davy Dave on 2006 03 17 at 05:31 PM • permalink

  47. #39 Full marks, Janice.

    The only addition I would make is that the “Robber” (in this case the journalist) performs his act in the full light of day with utter disregard for the fact that the world (and the panurge) are witness to their crime.

    They thus compound the sin with hubris—continuing to steal (truth) from their (oft willing) victim.

    Posted by MentalFloss on 2006 03 17 at 05:51 PM • permalink

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