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CHANCY BUSINESS

MSNBC reported in May:

The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be very active with up to 10 hurricanes, although not as busy as record-breaking 2005, when Hurricane Katrina and several other monster storms slammed into the United States, the U.S. government’s top climate agency said on Monday.

“NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become ‘major’ hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher,” said Conrad Lautenbacher, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Those seduced by climate change globaganda might be shocked that Gaia’s anticipated whuppin’ never arrived:

Instead, it has been a long, lazy hurricane season with just half the number of hurricanes predicted and not a single one making landfall.

"Weather forecasting is a chancy business,” said Hugh Willoughby, a professor of hurricane science at Florida International University. “It’s gotten a lot better, but if you can’t stand being wrong, you shouldn’t be in the business."

Can’t predict tomorrow’s weather, can’t predict next year’s weather ... yet there’s a scientific consensus about weather in the coming century and beyond. Just as well these folks are adapting to being wrong.

Posted by Tim B. on 10/25/2006 at 12:55 PM
  1. We were just talking about this at lunch.  We were all disgusted (again) at the media for fearmongering by trumpeting these ridiculous predictions, then slinking away without a word when the “catastrophe” never materialized.  Useless twits.  They should be crediting Bush for stopping the onslaught!

    At least lunch was good:  several endangered species washed down with spring water from an endangered aquifer.

    Posted by Tex Lovera on 2006 10 25 at 01:16 PM • permalink

  2. It’s a lot easier to forecast the flow of public funds, or the audience ratings, depending on your actual business.

    The Navier-Stokes equations are pretty well understood.  They’re too hard to solve in real cases, so approximations are made, like, for instance, throwing them out and using something else.

    Posted by rhhardin on 2006 10 25 at 01:19 PM • permalink

  3. Good thing I’m too incompetent to link to Wolcott.

    Posted by chinesearithmetic on 2006 10 25 at 01:20 PM • permalink

  4. Kinda funny aint it?

    The more they talk, and the more specific they get in their talking, the less accurate they get and the more of a record of their inaccuracy exists.

    The cult of global warmenizing should be redesignated as the cult of really stupid dumbasses.

    Posted by Grimmy on 2006 10 25 at 01:30 PM • permalink

  5. Odd, half expected them to cite the lack of hurricanes as further proof of Impending DOOM.

    You know, like how global warming is supposed to cause cooling and so on.

    Posted by Patrick Chester on 2006 10 25 at 01:50 PM • permalink

  6. The defense will be of course that the big trends are easy to spot, but the little ones are harder. So when they miss the barn door, they can say well, we hit the barn anyway.

    As in, Yes, one day all life on earth will be extinct, so send us money.

    Posted by SoberHT on 2006 10 25 at 01:50 PM • permalink

  7. The reason is that Chimpbushaliburtonler is so dumb he lost the keys to the hurrican machine.

    Posted by Room 237 on 2006 10 25 at 02:18 PM • permalink

  8. Hi, I’m Ned Olson, your local TV meteorologist here to help you understand phen, ummm, phenoma, shit, phenmoma why we have different weather thingies patterns. With all the bullshit Weather Satellites we have floating around in space (thank you taxpayers, I’m one too, but I get paid) “It’s gotten a lot better, but if you can’t can stand being paid to be wrong, (and they pay good bucks to be wrong and wrong, most of the time) you shouldn’t be in the business.”

    Why in the hell they call us meteorologists, I have no idea. I couldn’t tell the difference between a meteor and a god damn squadron of Sopwith Camels. Hey, where is my dart board, I have a weather cast coming up soon? OK, who took my fucking dart board?

    Posted by El Cid on 2006 10 25 at 02:37 PM • permalink

  9. Say, where’s Ender?  I want to ask him about this.  I mean, if the computer models that forecasted such a nasty hurricane system (the lack of which, thus far, I am profoundly grateful for), just how accurate are those climate models? 

    According to Ender, the human race iz all gonna die!, and soon! 

    Or something like that—it was hard to tell, what with his screeching and ranting, and all.

    Posted by The_Real_JeffS on 2006 10 25 at 02:38 PM • permalink

  10. #3: Beat me to it, C.A.!

    I imagine he’s lying in a half-swoon on his couch, amidst a gross or two of empty Cheetos bags, overwhelmed by his disappointment at humanity’s resilience in defying Gaia.

    Posted by paco on 2006 10 25 at 03:02 PM • permalink

  11. We’re all going to die. 

    I vote we start with global warmenisers and hippies.

    Posted by The_Wizard_of_WOZ on 2006 10 25 at 03:02 PM • permalink

  12. Hmmm.

    Frankly:  So what if there’s global warming?

    If the world gets warmer then isn’t that a good thing?  More areas of the world will be accessible, particularly the artic, for resource exploitation.

    If the weather patterns change is that necessarily a bad thing?  A warmer planet would result in a reversion to weather patterns of thousands of years ago where the Sahara was actually fertile grasslands.

    So really?  What’s the downside?  So if the planet gets warmer and more humid, won’t the vast arid and largely uninhabitable areas of this planet become more useful?

    Posted by memomachine on 2006 10 25 at 03:44 PM • permalink

  13. Remeber all change is bad; that’s why they are called progressives and they hate conservatives.

    Posted by Rob Read on 2006 10 25 at 04:25 PM • permalink

  14. More areas of the world will be accessible, particularly the artic, for resource exploitation.

    Well, there’s no landmass beneath the Arctic ice, so not many resources other than the meat of drowned polar bears. I assume you mean areas such as Siberia and northern Canada?

    Posted by PW on 2006 10 25 at 05:23 PM • permalink

  15. Who predicted hurricane hilaly here in Aus?  He is full of hot air and very very destructive.

    Posted by surfmaster on 2006 10 25 at 05:29 PM • permalink

  16. "Instead, it has been a long, lazy hurricane season with just half the number of hurricanes predicted and not a single one making landfall.”

    I can see the crests of the Chicken Little/Global Warming loons falling as we speak.

    Posted by Dave Surls on 2006 10 25 at 06:25 PM • permalink

  17. There was some good money to be made on insurance stocks.  People sold out expecting big hurricane payouts.  No hurricanes = tidy profits.

    Posted by attilathepun on 2006 10 25 at 06:47 PM • permalink

  18. In other news sure to cause great wailing and gnashing of teeth among the enviro doom sayers, Canada’s most famous delusional hysteric has decided that, after countless years of leeching a very comfortable living off the taxpayers’ teat, thanks to the ability of the global capitalist system, against which he naturally forever railed, to spin off enough excess cash to sustain even the clueless parasites who desire to destroy it and replace it with a ‘sustainable’ utopia of their fevered reality-impaired dreams, he can no longer go on with his endless predictions of Armageddon, and it’s time to call it quits.

    He claims he will retire to lead ‘a simple life’, which either means a Stone Age existence, if he has the balls to practice the sustainable subsistence he advocates, or, more likely, involves an enviro-palace incorporating ridiculously expensive green technologies with payback periods measured in generations. The righteous wealthy can afford such piety.

    I hope he doesn’t decide to live near an ocean shore, what with the coming Waterworld and all. That might get him too ‘in-tune’ with nature for even his tastes.

    Posted by Crispytoast on 2006 10 25 at 06:58 PM • permalink

  19. ”...after countless years of leeching a very comfortable living off the taxpayers’ teat, thanks to the ability of the global capitalist system, against which he naturally forever railed...”

    The quintessence of leftardism.

    Posted by Dave Surls on 2006 10 25 at 07:20 PM • permalink

  20. The final paragraph of that Suzuki article sums up the entire, hilariously hysterical enviro-religious movement:

    "We are intelligent, so we create our own habitat and we don’t need nature except as entertainment or for the extraction of resources,” he said. "We still don’t get it, that the simple acts of eating a pizza reverberates around the world."
    Posted by PW on 2006 10 25 at 08:02 PM • permalink

  21. PW—I’ve noticed the act of eating a pizza reverberate around an elevator car, but past that I think you’re over-achieving a bit…

    Posted by richard mcenroe on 2006 10 25 at 08:12 PM • permalink

  22. Eating the wrong pizza probably has the power to kill up to 27 endangered species on the spot.

    Posted by PW on 2006 10 25 at 08:23 PM • permalink

  23. Well, I reckon that Douglas Adams would have put leftard global warmenizers in the B Ark along with the rest of the useless third of the population that includes hairdressers, tired TV producers, insurance salesmen, personnel officers, security guards, management consultants and telephone sanitizers. Of course, with the benefit of hindsight we wouldn’t be putting the telephone sanitizers in there…

    Posted by Jack Lacton on 2006 10 25 at 08:24 PM • permalink

  24. But is it the pizza or the host’s intestinal flora which produces the greenhouse gases? Will Kyoto Mk2 prescribe what we can eat? Perhaps we’ll have to buy the right to eat pizza!
    Leftists are such control freaks.

    Posted by blogstrop on 2006 10 25 at 08:28 PM • permalink

  25. Global warming my ass!  It’s not even Halloween yet, and we’ve already had snow flurries, and it was 20 degrees F last night!  I wish they would put up or shut up!

    Posted by RebeccaH on 2006 10 25 at 08:34 PM • permalink

  26. Good Environmental News, Everybody!

    Bill Clinton says it’s okay to rape the rain forest! Advocates energy independence for California by following the “Brazilian example” and switching to ethanol.  BJ doesn’t seem to realize where they got the farmland to grow that corn…

    Posted by richard mcenroe on 2006 10 25 at 08:40 PM • permalink

  27. Speaking of failed predictions, this article really sinks the boot into Ehrlich and his ilk:

    Ignore the doomsday prophets
    ... it is worth recalling a few Ehrlich gems. Perhaps most often quoted is this one from The Population Bomb: “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.”

    Another prediction was that the US would see life expectancy drop to 42 years by 1990 due to pesticide usage, and its population fall to 22.6 million by 1999. According to the US Census Bureau, life expectancy in the US in 2005 was 77.7 years and, as of yesterday, its population was 300 million and growing.

    Posted by Art Vandelay on 2006 10 25 at 09:43 PM • permalink

  28. The cold snap of the past two days here in Orlando, Florida broke records. You know what this all means, don’t you? Just watch—they’re going to start talking about the “Coming Ice Age” and how we only have ten years tops before glaciers will bury all the cities above the Tropic of Cancer.

    Posted by Andrea Harris, Administrator on 2006 10 25 at 09:50 PM • permalink

  29. We still don’t get it, that the simple acts of eating a pizza reverberates around the world

    For me, it takes a bowl of chili.

    Posted by The_Real_JeffS on 2006 10 25 at 10:28 PM • permalink

  30. ”...they’re going to start talking about the “Coming Ice Age” and how we only have ten years tops before glaciers will bury all the cities above the Tropic of Cancer. “

    What’s wrong with that, Andrea?  Think of all the air conditioning you won’t need.  And no need for an ice maker, or even a fridge.  You’ll save oodles of money on utilities and appliances!

    ;-P

    Posted by The_Real_JeffS on 2006 10 25 at 10:30 PM • permalink

  31. Warren Zevon had Desperadoes Under The Eaves.
    When the Ice Age hits Florida, Andrea will have Longjohns Under The Kaftan.

    Posted by SwinishCapitalist on 2006 10 25 at 10:40 PM • permalink

  32. Perhaps its ironic that one of the leading hurricane forecasters, William Gray, is actually a global warming sceptic. Gray gained credibility with a good run of hurricane predictions a few years ago, but his last two years, 2005 (underestimate) and 2006 (overestimate) have spoiled his record. Even so he still has a better prediction record than anyone.

    Gray may be inclined to GW scepticism because, unlike most climate modellers, his predictions are so soon put to the test, and so he knows the limitations of his science. The people who who are predicting disaster in 30, 50, 100 years have the luxury of knowing that by the time they are proven wrong, their predictions will be largely forgotten, but they will have made a good living in the meantime.

    Posted by zscore on 2006 10 25 at 11:44 PM • permalink

  33. #9 - RJS, Ender has surfaced!
    He’s posted a comment on Bolta’s blog in the story about the solar power station for Victoria.

    Posted by SwinishCapitalist on 2006 10 25 at 11:59 PM • permalink

  34. The Israelis took control of the weather-making machine and j*wed us out of our hurricanes!!!

    That’s the only logical leftwing explanation for this.

    Posted by zefal on 2006 10 26 at 12:16 AM • permalink

  35. Don’t you Bushitlers get it? There will be a big thick Global Warming ice belt around the equator, and hot bare desert at the poles.

    Earth will look like a Sumo wrestler. And you Aussies will be stuck on the assward side of it.

    Posted by Shaky Barnes on 2006 10 26 at 01:29 AM • permalink

  36. Weather forecasters LIED about the forecast, just like Bush LIED about te war!!!  This was an illegal, immoral summer they just put us through.  Don’t re-elect your meteorologist!

    Posted by blogagog on 2006 10 26 at 02:10 AM • permalink

  37. I remember reading a Carl Sagan book.While I appreciated a lot of what Carl did he was on the doomsayers side when it came to global warming.

    At one stage he wrote about how hard it was to predict the weather. He immediately bracketed that with a comment how that it wasn’t necessarily as difficult to predict climate, as if he realised as he was writing that he had undermined part of his own global warming case.

    And here was naive little me thinking that climate was just a collection of weathers.

    Posted by Francis H on 2006 10 26 at 04:17 AM • permalink

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